January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Wow, that’s pretty amazing considering the other years that we’re considered/were a torch. 

Yeah, and the greatest January temperature rebound following such a cold first week.

1/1-1/7.......-16.4....second coldest on record behind 1918

1/8-1/14......+4.6

1/15-1/21....+1.1

1/22-1/28....+7.0 so far

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Pretty sure this qualifies as a torch. 59.1F was my high yesterday and 57F high at 1am today. 

Now down to -0.8 here. Today will be warmer than normal as will tomorrow. Going to be close to normal as expected for much of the area. January 10th-31st was predominately warmer than normal, such that it almost entirely countervailed the early month cold.

Yea normal month on paper, but it doesn’t tell the story of brutal cold first 1/3 and warm final 2/3. 

[doncat]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yea normal month on paper, but it doesn’t tell the story of brutal cold first 1/3 and warm final 2/3. 

Still -2.5 degrees here thru yesterday....Most local ASOS were between -1.5 and -3 degrees thru yesterday.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Still -2.5 degrees here thru yesterday....Most local ASOS were between -1.5 and -3 degrees thru yesterday.

As of today, islip is at 31*, avg is 30.6

[JerseyWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012.

2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC:

2018...8

2017...6

2016...4

2015...1

2014...5

2013...6

2012...11

2011...2

2010...4

That's extremely surprising.  I thought for sure 2016 would have had more

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Just wanted to add some balance in here,  JFK to date is - 3 LGA is - 2.5 NYC - 1.4 this morning.

By Jan 19 after the missed colder 5 day period which occurred , JFK was - 7 and LGA - 6.5 , Now that's a cold stretch.

Now lets contrast the torch JFK from Jan 11 thru the 27th averaged plus 3.7 during the coldest part of the winters norms.

 

JFK LGA and NYC all finish BN for Jan

Once again the prior BN 3 days as well as the 30th and 31st cut the Norms and saved the months neg anomaly.

Now we can focus on the return to winter which begins tomorrow and then in earnest around the 2nd and beyond.

The trough is back in only a few days.

There will be a 10 day period in FEB which should occur inside the 10th to 25th period where NYC will experience a - 8 departure.

There's a real good chance that NYC as well as many other areas will end BN every month from Nov thru March

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Just wanted to add some balance in here,  JFK to date is - 3 LGA is - 2.5 NYC - 1.4 this morning.

By Jan 19 after the missed colder 5 day period which occurred , JFK was - 7 and LGA - 6.5 , Now that's a cold stretch.

Now lets contrast the torch JFK from Jan 11 thru the 27th averaged plus 3.7 during the coldest part of the winters norms.

 

JFK LGA and NYC all finish BN for Jan

Once again the prior BN 3 days as well as the 30th and 31st cut the Norms and saved the months neg anomaly.

Now we can focus on the return to winter which begins tomorrow and then in earnest around the 2nd and beyond.

The trough is back in only a few days.

There will be a 10 day period in FEB which should occur inside the 10th to 25th period where NYC will experience a - 8 departure.

There's a real good chance that NYC as well as many other areas will end BN every month from Nov thru March

 

Amazing turnaround if it happens...I think going back to October and before, NYC was above average 26 out of 28 months or something crazy like that.   Feb '15 was a isle of cold in a sea of warmth.

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Just wanted to add some balance in here,  JFK to date is - 3 LGA is - 2.5 NYC - 1.4 this morning.

By Jan 19 after the missed colder 5 day period which occurred , JFK was - 7 and LGA - 6.5 , Now that's a cold stretch.

 

 

Its fair to call 1 - 19 a cold stretch.   But looking at the dailies its tough not to say the monthly departure is driven by Jan 1-10.  Those 10 were cold enough to pull the whole month below when really the rest of the month was mild, albeit not a wall to wall torch.

 

[CIK62]

The first 8 days of Jan. were -15.5 degrees, and the next 19 days to date +4.6 degrees.   When all is said and done this will have changed little.   You end up with a 23 day period at +4.6.   If it had been the other way around and we ended with that same 8 day start, I would psychologically call it a below normal month.   It seemed above normal to me.   In addition, it is going to be a full month ( to Feb. 09) before anything great happens again.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The first 8 days of Jan. were -15.5 degrees, and the next 19 days to date +4.6 degrees.   When all is said and done this will have changed little.   You end up with a 23 day period at +4.6.   If it had been the other way around and we ended with that same 8 day start, I would psychologically call it a below normal month.   It seemed above normal to me.   In addition, it is going to be a full month ( to Feb. 09) before anything great happens again.

The 1st 19 days were between - 6 and - 7 around the area.

13 of the first 19 days were BN and 3 more of those days your highs were 40 41 42 - so you spent most of the day in the 30s as well.

That's what happens when days are plus 1 2 3 during the coldest part of winter , it still didn't feel warm.

The 11th thru the 27th was plus 3.7 , we can amend tomorrow AM when we factor today in.

But it's back to winter , get ready.

 

 

[Isotherm]

Most of the Mt. Holly official stations are between -1.0 and -1.5 through yesterday. Most areas of the Mid-Atlantic and PA/NJ away from the coast will finish January between 0 and -1; near normal to slightly below, and an impressive reversal from the first 1/3.

PHL: -1.0

Trenton: -1.2

Allentown, PA: -0.2

Atlantic City: -1.6

Newark and NYC are -1.4 through yesterday. They will finish close to -0.5 as well.

Washington DC: -1.0

Dulles: -1.2

Baltimore: -1.9

The point is: it's incontrovertible that this month was highly bipolar and the cold did not out duel the warmth by much (a very insignificant margin). 

My mean temperature of 30.0F right now for January is very much unimpressive, in light of the mean I had in the low 20s at the mid month point.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The 1st 19 days were between - 6 and - 7 around the area.

13 of the first 19 days were BN and 3 more of those days your highs were 40 41 42 - so you spent most of the day in the 30s as well.

That's what happens when days are plus 1 2 3 during the coldest part of winter , it still didn't feel warm.

The 11th thru the 27th was plus 3.7 , we can amend tomorrow AM when we factor today in.

But it's back to winter , get ready.

 

 

I wouldn’t bother. He claimed bye bye snow this morning. Then this comment about it’s going to be a full month before anything interesting happens. Hmmm I find the next two days interesting. And moving forward find the cold and you will find the snow. Look how those calls from late December of no precipitation ended. 

[Isotherm]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Then this comment about it’s going to be a full month before anything interesting happens. 

 

It's subjective I suppose, but I agree with his comment. My last snowfall over 1.5" was January 4th. We'll see what happens with later this week, but it's certainly getting close to a month with nothing interesting winter storm wise.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

It's subjective I suppose, but I agree with his comment. My last snowfall over 1.5" was January 4th. We'll see what happens with later this week, but it's certainly getting close to a month with nothing interesting winter storm wise.

It's been mainly mild and rainy this month, so it's about time winter returned. Don't see much on the snow front however.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been mainly mild and rainy this month, so it's about time winter returned. Don't see much on the snow front however.

Jan has been rainy and mild ? 

lol

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Colts Neck's last 2 inch snowfall was 10 days ago added to a 15 inch Blizzard.

17 inches of snow for the month of Jan with the first 19 days finishing - 6 and a 13 day stretch of below 32.

Dunce central in here.

[The Plowsman]

The 1st 19 days were between - 6 and - 7 around the area.
13 of the first 19 days were BN and 3 more of those days your highs were 40 41 42 - so you spent most of the day in the 30s as well.
That's what happens when days are plus 1 2 3 during the coldest part of winter , it still didn't feel warm.
The 11th thru the 27th was plus 3.7 , we can amend tomorrow AM when we factor today in.
But it's back to winter , get ready.
 
 

In the 4ish yrs here, don't think I've ever seen so much anticipation on an up coming cold front! Wow it 'tis feb.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

15 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

In the 4ish yrs here, don't think I've ever seen so much anticipati on an up coming cold front! Wow it 'tis feb.

We will head into phase 8 then 1 during the coldest part of the year with Canada frigid so there's no lag.

We will turn colder in phase 7 and that should show you what's waiting to come S.

If we can extend that into 2 and 3 we can run the BN regime into early March.

Let's get into 8 and 1 first , I think FEB has a very cold period in it and is another BN month.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Colts Neck's last 2 inch snowfall was 10 days ago added to a 15 inch Blizzard.

17 inches of snow for the month of Jan with the first 19 days finishing - 6 and a 13 day stretch of below 32.

Dunce central in here.

A lot of us didn't see 2 inches in that event, and didn't do so well on the 4th. Aside from the previous cold, now but a memory, it doesn't seem like much of a winter. I am hoping your analysis is correct and that something gets going, though I am not all that interested in cold and dry. Kills my skin.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

A lot of us didn't see 2 inches in that event, and didn't do so well on the 4th. Aside from the previous cold, now but a memory, it doesn't seem like much of a winter. I am hoping your analysis is correct and that something gets going, though I am not all that interested in cold and dry. Kills my skin.

The cold coming back is very easy to see.

Snow however is going to have to wait until it's up close and personal.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Most of the Mt. Holly official stations are between -1.0 and -1.5 through yesterday. Most areas of the Mid-Atlantic and PA/NJ away from the coast will finish January between 0 and -1; near normal to slightly below, and an impressive reversal from the first 1/3.

PHL: -1.0

Trenton: -1.2

Allentown, PA: -0.2

Atlantic City: -1.6

Newark and NYC are -1.4 through yesterday. They will finish close to -0.5 as well.

Washington DC: -1.0

Dulles: -1.2

Baltimore: -1.9

The point is: it's incontrovertible that this month was highly bipolar and the cold did not out duel the warmth by much (a very insignificant margin). 

My mean temperature of 30.0F right now for January is very much unimpressive, in light of the mean I had in the low 20s at the mid month point.

But you had Jan AN everywhere in the northeast in winter forecast . That seems like it might not work out 

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Colts Neck's last 2 inch snowfall was 10 days ago added to a 15 inch Blizzard.

17 inches of snow for the month of Jan with the first 19 days finishing - 6 and a 13 day stretch of below 32.

Dunce central in here.

I only had 0.5" in the last event here in the Bronx. We haven't had a significant snowfall since the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone, which dropped 10". I'd agree that it hasn't been wintry for a while. Even the piles are pretty much gone around here.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

35 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I only had 0.5" in the last event here in the Bronx. We haven't had a significant snowfall since the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone, which dropped 10". I'd agree that it hasn't been wintry for a while. Even the piles are pretty much gone around here.

 

10 inches of snow is 100 % of normal snow for you in Jan and you will finish the month BN.

If you got 5 , 2 inch events spread out instead of 1 , 10 inch event I am sure it would have felt more wintry.

The problem is , Jan goes down as N snowfall and AN snowfall for the month east of you with BN temps in your area.

The 2 week warm up was seen by all of us,  we just argued the breaks in between , how the month would end and when the trough would filter back in.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Most of the Mt. Holly official stations are between -1.0 and -1.5 through yesterday. Most areas of the Mid-Atlantic and PA/NJ away from the coast will finish January between 0 and -1; near normal to slightly below, and an impressive reversal from the first 1/3.

PHL: -1.0

Trenton: -1.2

Allentown, PA: -0.2

Atlantic City: -1.6

Newark and NYC are -1.4 through yesterday. They will finish close to -0.5 as well.

Washington DC: -1.0

Dulles: -1.2

Baltimore: -1.9

The point is: it's incontrovertible that this month was highly bipolar and the cold did not out duel the warmth by much (a very insignificant margin). 

My mean temperature of 30.0F right now for January is very much unimpressive, in light of the mean I had in the low 20s at the mid month point.

Dulles ? Baltimore ? DC ? Philly ? huh , why not Richmond or Atlanta Tom.

Non of these areas are remotely relevant to this forecast area 

JFK LGA NYC will all finish BN / that was our forecast difference not the M/A.

[donsutherland1]

Even as the second half of January featured a thaw, the month will go into the books as generally colder than normal across much of the New York City region (NJ, NY, and CT). While the thaw may be better recalled as more recent memories tend to be fresher, the cold wave that stretched from late December through the first week of January was produced the longest period of subfreezing days in the NYC area since 1961. The more than 50-year nature of the cold snap outweighs the magnitude of the thaw, as recent years have seen even warmer periods.

January 2018 also featured above normal snowfall, even as the area running from southeast New Jersey across Long Island and into southern New England had the largest snowfall anomalies. The highlight was the January 4 storm that brought blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island, Westchester County, and Connecticut.

Local January snowfall anomalies through 1/28:
Atlantic City: +10.3”
Bridgeport: +2.4”
Islip: +10.0”
New York City:
…JFK: +2.6”
…LGA: +0.9”
…NYC: +4.0”
Newark: +2.4”

[Cfa]

As of 1/26:

Hi+Low Mean: 29.1 (-1.5)

24hr Mean: 29.4

Median: 29.8

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But you had Jan AN everywhere in the northeast in winter forecast . That seems like it might not work out 

I'm referring to my medium range calls from the end of December and early January, which discussed a warmer than normal pattern ensuing for the period Jan 10th+, an unfavorable regime for coastal snow, and no more significant snow events until February. Those ideas all verified well. No one else mentioned the possibility from 3-4 weeks ago that January's cold anomalies would be largely erased, or the likelihood that snow events would be virtually non-existent on the coast (NYC-south) for 3-4 weeks. The winter outlook January forecast will be too warm, yes. I don't typically defend myself this fervently, but it appears I need to set the record straight here.

 

On 1/7/2018 at 8:21 PM, Isotherm said:

There are some not insignificant alterations occurring w/ the global AAM budget and concomitant GWO circulation as we transition from December to January, and all objective indicators of SPV status suggest a vortex intensification (VI) is initiating at various pressure levels in the stratosphere. Ozone concentrations continue to decrease in the Arctic domain, the PV area is increasing, proxies for the Brewer-Dobson circulation indicate weakening, zonal winds are rapidly increasingly at multifarious levels, and temperatures are cooling to two standard deviations or more below normal. These are all signs auguring consolidation of the SPV, and thus a predilection to countermand sustained colder than normal temperatures in the Eastern US. December was generally characterized by a somewhat heightened angular momentum regime with jet extensions and eastward displaced mid level ridging, particularly when juxtaposed with La Nina climatology. However, as we move forward, frictional torque becomes negative with an ostensible decrease in relative AAM. EA MT will be mostly neutral to negative in the medium range; this is consistent with the GWO circulation into phases of lower AAM. Tropical forcing is very much connected w/ relative AAM tendencies as well, and going forward we will resume a fairly "typical" IO/maritime continent based LF forcing, and I think the mean pattern will project more strongly onto the classic La Nina forcing than December's forcing signature. The result of which should be a more retracted jet stream, and consequently lower geopotential heights tending to amplify in the West beginning D7+. 

 

This overall pattern of suppressed angular momentum / retracted jet / La Nina forcing will persist for the rest of January. Concomitantly, the z500 circulation structure in the medium term will begin to constructively interfere with wave-2 and thus enhance pressure on the SPV by D20-30. This will lead to a gradual weakening of the SPV in the long range, as we approach February. However, whether w2 is sufficiently robust to induce significant perturbation is currently indeterminate, but that will be revisited. The vortex will weaken in the long range, however. The retracted jet regime will implicate a relatively unpropitious PNA domain compared to December, and as a result, a tendency to maintain East Coast ridging in the means.

 

A warmer than normal pattern is on the way, and the end of the week will surge to 60F for most, followed by another trough amplification (but devoid of severely cold air). As the critical EPO domain transitions positive, the temperature trend responds accordingly in a more positive direction. The critical problem with the an Eastern snow threat in the mid month period is the rapid eastward expansion of low geopotential heights into the W North American coast which will quickly deamplify the PNA, and force it eastward. The anafrontal wave must develop at precisely the right time, as the upstream ridging is very unstable. Therefore, probability is low for significant event at this time. 

The second half of January should be warmer than normal in the means, with intermittent outbreaks of polar air. As alluded to in the foregoing, the tropical forcing pattern will be favorable for a more retracted jet, and thus, when the Nina-esque poleward ridging resumes, it will occur at a longitude further west than the previous pulse. This implies lower heights in the West and a proclivity for higher heights near the East Coast. I don't really have any changes from my earlier thoughts, namely that the rest of January looks mostly unfavorable for significant snow potential in the coastal East. Of course, minor events can still occur, and one can't rule out something larger than that, but it would be a function of fortuitous timing (and probability will always be low for those events given the stochastic nature).

 

One point regarding geo-potential heights. Don't let the colors fool you - yellow colors doesn't always mean blocking. The position of the tropospheric polar vortex on the D10-15 EPS is indicative of a generally positive NAO.

 

In the longer term, I continue to anticipate increased favorability in February, as we gradaully transition toward a weaker SPV status. However, I don't think temperatures will be severely cold for such a protracted period as we just experienced. This was the worst of the winter as far as snow/cold combined in my opinion. However, I think Feb 1-15 will produce a snow event equal to or larger than the last one for many (especially NYC-west). I think the retracted jet pattern may continue to be an issue in Feb w/ Pac NW low heights and SE-ridge tendencies, but this will place increased importance on the NAO state, largely a function of the resultant w2 behavior over the coming weeks.

[WEATHERBUFF]

5 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Most of the Mt. Holly official stations are between -1.0 and -1.5 through yesterday. Most areas of the Mid-Atlantic and PA/NJ away from the coast will finish January between 0 and -1; near normal to slightly below, and an impressive reversal from the first 1/3.

PHL: -1.0

Trenton: -1.2

Allentown, PA: -0.2

Atlantic City: -1.6

Newark and NYC are -1.4 through yesterday. They will finish close to -0.5 as well.

Washington DC: -1.0

Dulles: -1.2

Baltimore: -1.9

The point is: it's incontrovertible that this month was highly bipolar and the cold did not out duel the warmth by much (a very insignificant margin). 

My mean temperature of 30.0F right now for January is very much unimpressive, in light of the mean I had in the low 20s at the mid month point.

Over the last 10 years or so january has averaged well over 1 degree above the 1981-2010 average so even a fraction of a degree below the so-called normal is a cold month.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Over the last 10 years or so january has averaged well over 1 degree above the 1981-2010 average so even a fraction of a degree below the so-called normal is a cold month.

True, but the NWS 1981-2010 baseline is used for scoring purposes.

[WEATHERBUFF]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

True, but the NWS 1981-2010 baseline is used for scoring purposes.

Maybe we should go by 20 year averages given the fact the climate is changing pretty fast at least here in the east, I do hope it stops!