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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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35 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

MOS temperatures crushed today - torching. Sitting at 59F here in CNJ and still rising. 

 

The 55 at Newark puts it in 3rd place for the most 55 or warmer days on record for January at 6 now.

#1.....8 days.....2007...2006....1950...1932

#2....7 days.....1990...1951...1947

#3....6 days......2018...1998...1973...1972...1949...1933

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 55 at Newark puts it in 3rd place for the most 55 or warmer days on record for January at 6 now.

#1.....8 days.....2007...2006....1950...1932

#2....7 days.....1990...1951...1947

#3....6 days......2018...1998...1973...1972...1949...1933

This is getting too easy, I don't think the models realize we are in a warmer climate.

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I'll have to wait to see what the recorded max is for the afternoon, but looking at hourly observations this afternoon at KFRG (Republic Airport), those topped out at 49.  Precursor to frustrating April/May days when central NJ away from the coast hits mid-high 60s while LI stays stuck in the 40s.  It's the worst trivial feature of south shore LI climate IMO (worst nontrivial feature being hurricane exposure of course.)

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9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'll have to wait to see what the recorded max is for the afternoon, but looking at hourly observations this afternoon at KFRG (Republic Airport), those topped out at 49.  Precursor to frustrating April/May days when central NJ away from the coast hits mid-high 60s while LI stays stuck in the 40s.  It's the worst trivial feature of south shore LI climate IMO (worst nontrivial feature being hurricane exposure of course.)

I would have to disagree and say hurricane exposure is great. (For a weather lover). 

Today was a gorgeous day on the mountain in Vermont. Great snow and sunny and 40s. 

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Temps stayed in the low to mid 40's here, I saw as high as 47 on the dashboard in Danbury this afternoon. The ground in the woods is still mostly frozen under the leafy insulation but soft where it's exposed. IOW it's ready for the next snow and shouldn't have to go through the whole refreeze thing before it stick and can start to build if we get a few storms in succession in a short period of time. We also haven't lost much of the lake ice either, it gets wet during the day but refreezes at night and there's very little, if any, open water even on the biggest lakes.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Temps stayed in the low to mid 40's here, I saw as high as 47 on the dashboard in Danbury this afternoon. The ground in the woods is still mostly frozen under the leafy insulation but soft where it's exposed. IOW it's ready for the next snow and shouldn't have to go through the whole refreeze thing before it stick and can start to build if we get a few storms in succession in a short period of time. We also haven't lost much of the lake ice either, it gets wet during the day but refreezes at night and there's very little, if any, open water even on the biggest lakes.

Plenty of ice fishing, hockey playing, and general meandering taking place on White Pond yesterday afternoon. I walked across it lengthwise a couple times doing some photography, definitely no open water. It seemed like Candlewood was pretty well locked in today but I didn't get a chance to stop and take a closer look.

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19 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Plenty of ice fishing, hockey playing, and general meandering taking place on White Pond yesterday afternoon. I walked across it lengthwise a couple times doing some photography, definitely no open water. It seemed like Candlewood was pretty well locked in today but I didn't get a chance to stop and take a closer look.

White Pond in Kent/Carmel? I'm going to put some studded tires on a couple of my bikes and get out and do some lake rides soon, probably after the next cold period gets rolling.

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19 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Heheh I didn't even look after I got home but it's up to 50 here. Well shoot, I was hoping the 47 this afternoon was the highest it was going to get.

47.5 here.

The bright side is at least there's no snow on the ground I have to watch disappear.

The dark side, there's no snow on the ground.

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Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.4.   Should end Jan. @ -0.58.

The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN.

Bye Bye Snows?

Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3.   2" in Feb.

SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now!

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Another mild day lies ahead today. However, cooler air will be pushing into the region in the wake of the cold front that is now pushing across the area this morning with light rain.

Even as the air mass is not Arctic in origin, it could be sufficiently cold to allow for a period of light snow or flurries across the region Monday night into Tuesday. A possible larger snowfall could occur on Friday according to some of the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/27: 30.9° (1.4° below normal)
1/31: 31.4°-32.0° (1/27 estimate: 31.3°-32.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 79% (1/27 estimate: 74%)

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.4.   Should end Jan. @ -0.58.

The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN.

Bye Bye Snows?

Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3.   2" in Feb.

SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now!

Bye bye snow ?

What?

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.4.   Should end Jan. @ -0.58.

The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN.

Bye Bye Snows?

Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3.   2" in Feb.

SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now!

The operational ECMWF only goes out to 2/7 0z.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another mild day lies ahead today. However, cooler air will be pushing into the region in the wake of the cold front that is now pushing across the area this morning with light rain.

Even as the air mass is not Arctic in origin, it could be sufficiently cold to allow for a period of light snow or flurries across the region Monday night into Tuesday. A possible larger snowfall could occur on Friday according to some of the guidance.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/27: 30.9° (1.4° below normal)
1/31: 31.4°-32.0° (1/27 estimate: 31.3°-32.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 79% (1/27 estimate: 74%)

28.6 avg January temp here. Normal is 29.2, so at -0.6. Will be close to normal by months end. 

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.4.   Should end Jan. @ -0.58.

The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN.

Bye Bye Snows?

Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3.   2" in Feb.

SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now!

I am not sure what is more impressive. The fact that the first 10 days were so cold it wiped out the warm departures in the final 20 days, or that the final 20 days were so warm it wiped out the first 10 day cold departure. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012.

2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC:

2018...8

2017...6

2016...4

2015...1

2014...5

2013...6

2012...11

2011...2

2010...4

Wow, that’s pretty amazing considering the other years that we’re considered/were a torch. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012.

2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC:

2018...8

2017...6

2016...4

2015...1

2014...5

2013...6

2012...11

2011...2

2010...4

Any idea what the avg is? (30 yr avgs etc..)

I'd guess maybe around 3 - 5?

I wonder if there are many Jan that have none. Its hard to imagine one in my lifetime while old enough to remember. 

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31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

28.6 avg January temp here. Normal is 29.2, so at -0.6. Will be close to normal by months end. 

 

Pretty sure this qualifies as a torch. 59.1F was my high yesterday and 57F high at 1am today. 

Now down to -0.8 here. Today will be warmer than normal as will tomorrow. Going to be close to normal as expected for much of the area. January 10th-31st was predominately warmer than normal, such that it almost entirely countervailed the early month cold.

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