January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[uncle W]

this forecast changes every day...today it's more bullish for a negative ao than yesterday...two days ago was a great look...yesterday not so much...today is a lot better...tomorrow who knows...the forecast keeps predicting the ao to fall to a low level on the charts...it's been doing this all winter...the lowest so far was just under -2 sd when it was five degrees and 6" of snow on the ground...

[Isotherm]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through January 23, New York City has had a mean temperature of 30.2°. That is 2.2° below normal. At this point, it appears likely that NYC will have its first colder than normal December-January pair since winter 2011-12. There is an approximate 53% probability that January’s anomaly will exceed 0.5° below normal. All said, January 2018 will be the coldest January since 2015 when the month had an average temperature of 29.9°.

With prospects that February could also wind up colder than normal, winter 2017-18 could be the first winter since 2009-10 to have cold anomalies in all three months of meteorological winter.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/23: 30.2° (2.2° below normal)
1/25: 30.4°-30.6° (1/23 estimate: 30.2°-30.7°)
1/31: 31.1°-32.5° (1/23 estimate: 31.2°-32.7°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 60% (1/23 estimate: 57%)

 

I think you meant 2010-11 here, not 2011-12.

As an aside, the coldest January since 2015 isn't too impressive given January 2016 and 2017's temperatures. At the end of the day, even if Central Park finishes technically below by a couple tenths, it will be considered a near normal month in retrospect, which I'd say is quite an incredible feat. Most did not expect an outcome anywhere near normal for this month, in light of the brutally cold first 10 days.

[Isotherm]

8 hours ago, doncat said:

Would be impressive to run that streak to four months...Even with the recent warmth, my station is still -3.2° for January.

 

I'm at -2.5 here. Going to be a close call. I think we're mid 50s Saturday and Sunday, with a probable midnight high for Monday.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

I think you meant 2010-11 here, not 2011-12.

As an aside, the coldest January since 2015 isn't too impressive given January 2016 and 2017's temperatures. At the end of the day, even if Central Park finishes technically below by a couple tenths, it will be considered a near normal month in retrospect, which I'd say is quite an incredible feat. Most did not expect an outcome anywhere near normal for this month, in light of the brutally cold first 10 days.

Yes. I meant 2010-11. Thanks for catching the typo. I agree that the thaw has been fairly impressive.

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this forecast changes every day...today it's more bullish for a negative ao than yesterday...two days ago was a great look...yesterday not so much...today is a lot better...tomorrow who knows...the forecast keeps predicting the ao to fall to a low level on the charts...it's been doing this all winter...the lowest so far was just under -2 sd when it was five degrees and 6" of snow on the ground...

Yeah it really did back off yesterday.  It’ll probably end up being around -1 to -2 again.  I don’t think we are seeing any prolonged -3 to -5 AO this winter.  But it HAS spent enough time negative that I trust it will verify in the negative range for a good part of the month 

[uncle W]

the DJF oni might end up -0.7 to -0.9 this year...the ao so far is averaging negative for the winter...most of the cold or snowy la nina winters had a neg ao on average...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0"

1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6"

2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7"

2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8"

1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2"

2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3"

2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2"

1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9"

1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6"

1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6"

1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8"

1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5"

2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0"

1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2"

1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1"

1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5"

2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7"

2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1"

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It's trending much stronger with the -WPO block in recent days so the cold comes faster now. 

 

 

 

Its why Canada never lost it's Arctic air 

And why I was bullish on the quicker return

 

Canada gets pre loaded and is so cold that when the EPO goes negative HP will immediately eject that low level cold Canadian air into the CONUS

 

I remember reading in here how Canada was going to lose its Arctic air which I disagreed with

That was another great call by that poster 

 

[The Plowsman]

 
Its why Canada never lost it's Arctic air 
And why I was bullish on the quicker return
 
Canada gets pre loaded and is so cold that when the EPO goes negative HP will immediately eject that low level cold Canadian air into the CONUS
 
I remember reading in here how Canada was going to lose its Arctic air which I disagreed with
That was another great call by that poster 
 

TV Mets talking up a Possible Scenario #2 with pacific flat, zonal flow early/mid Feb now!

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

21 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

TV Mets talking up a Possible Scenario #2 with pacific flat, zonal flow early/mid Feb now!

 

If early Feb is Feb 3 / 5 then yep

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive when you see a transitional MJO phase 7 trending colder week 1. The colder MJO phases don't even arrive until the 2nd week and after in February.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

TV Mets talking up a Possible Scenario #2 with pacific flat, zonal flow early/mid Feb now!

It is unlikely that a zonal flow would persist into mid-February. The first week of February should be a transition to a sustained frequently colder than normal and snowier than normal pattern. Unfortunately, as daily MJO figures only go back to 1974, the dataset is very limited. The following winters featured an MJO in Phase 7 combined with an AO-/PNA+ during the first week in February: 1977-78, 1979-80, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1986-87, 2005-06, and 2009-10. Three (1977-78, 1979-80, and 2009-10) featured widespread cold anomalies in the East for the 2/1-15 period and two saw cold anomalies in the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England (including the greater NYC area) during the 2/1-15 period (1985-86 and 1986-87). The latest EPS lends support to the idea of the transition to colder weather.

 

 

[snywx]

After 1 day of spring time temps it feels like winter again...

31° w/ flurries

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive when you see a transitional MJO phase 7 trending colder week 1. The colder MJO phases don't even arrive until the 2nd week and after in February.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Not all phase 7 s are warm and that was the mistake some made 

Canada stays cold because of the WPO and once the amplitude in 7 quickened the EPO return the dam breaks 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Not all phase 7 s are warm and that was the mistake some made 

Canada stays cold because of the WPO and once the amplitude in 7 quickened the EPO return the dam breaks 

It's not so much phase 7 as the current phase 5 we are going through. Phase 5 is often the strongest -WPO phase this time of year. But we have seen how the recent blocking on the Pacific side likes to go to extremes. Models now up to  +480 meters with that impressive WPO block.

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Not all phase 7 s are warm and that was the mistake some made 

Canada stays cold because of the WPO and once the amplitude in 7 quickened the EPO return the dam breaks 

The point concerning MJO Phase 7 is a key one.

February 1-15, 1975-2017 Data: New York City

All dates: Mean temperature: 33.0°; MJO Phase 7: 33.4°; MJO Phase 7/PDO+: 32.1°

[Juliancolton]

36 minutes ago, snywx said:

After 1 day of spring time temps it feels like winter again...

31° w/ flurries

I lost my acclimation after the warmup and a lot of time indoors this week. It feels frigid today. Two weeks ago I would have been sweating with temps in the mid-30s.

I think I see the occasional flake drifting by even with the sun coming and going.

[SnoSki14]

The arrival of sustained BN temps has definitely sped over the last few days. 

However I'm curious if the storms will come with it or will drier air prevail. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The arrival of sustained BN temps has definitely sped over the last few days. 

However I'm curious if the storms will come with it or will drier air prevail. 

Your call from late December of dry straight through early January ended with a blizzard. I’m really liking the feb 15 analog for how things will behave in a -epo. The biggest threat will be late development favoring NE

[WeatherFeen2000]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your call from late December of dry straight through early January ended with a blizzard. I’m really liking the feb 15 analog for how things will behave in a -epo. The biggest threat will be late development favoring NE

You guys always say that but 90% of the time new York city gets hit just as much as Boston. Now dc and Philly is a different story they get shafted unless we get supressed!

[The Plowsman]

It is unlikely that a zonal flow would persist into mid-February. The first week of February should be a transition to a sustained frequently colder than normal and snowier than normal pattern. Unfortunately, as daily MJO figures only go back to 1974, the dataset is very limited. The following winters featured an MJO in Phase 7 combined with an AO-/PNA+ during the first week in February: 1977-78, 1979-80, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1986-87, 2005-06, and 2009-10. Three (1977-78, 1979-80, and 2009-10) featured widespread cold anomalies in the East for the 2/1-15 period and two saw cold anomalies in the northern Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England (including the greater NYC area) during the 2/1-15 period (1985-86 and 1986-87). The latest EPS lends support to the idea of the transition to colder weather.
 
 

Thanx, Don

[Rtd208]

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your call from late December of dry straight through early January ended with a blizzard. I’m really liking the feb 15 analog for how things will behave in a -epo. The biggest threat will be late development favoring NE

To be fair that "blizzard" heavily favored the immediate coastal areas, most places west of I-95 had under 6" and our precip values were well BN for that period. 

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

To be fair that "blizzard" heavily favored the immediate coastal areas, most places west of I-95 had under 6" and our precip values were well BN for that period. 

Yeah it wasn't a blockbuster out here with reports of 6-8.5, which is just a regular old snowstorm. But it did have brutal cold with it and a lot of wind, so we'll take it. Don't need a foot and a half all the time. I'm ok to live vicariously as long as we see something decent. Now 2/6/10, that one hurt....but heck it was close enough it took only about 45 minutes to drive to it....

[Rtd208]

 

[doncat]

Been pretty dry since the big rain event to end October...Just 6.02" here since, doesn't look like much more to end the month.

[gravitylover]

14 hours ago, uncle W said:

12/13-14...trace....snow and rain mixed...

12/20-21.....1.2"...snow to rain to snow...

12/24-25.....7.1"...snow to sleet to snow...

12/28-29.....0.8"...snow to heavy rain...

1/19............0.3"...light snow...

1/29............0.3"

1/31............0.3"

2/6..............2.7"

2/7............12.5"

2/10............2.0"

2/18............1.8"

2/21..........trace...mixed...

2/23............3.8" wet snow...

2/27-28.......0.9" wet snow...

3/5..............2.0" snow to heavy rain...

3/15-16.......2.6" rain to sleet to snow...

3/17............3.0" very cold...

3/21-22.......9.8" wet snow...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E

So my first winter on the planet was a bit above average. Kind of explains my 'thing' for snow  

[NorthShoreWx]

15 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So my first winter on the planet was a bit above average. Kind of explains my 'thing' for snow  

75" at OKX that winter; 65" of it in February and March.

[CIK62]

Next 7 days (Remainder of Jan.) averaging 36degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  -2.0degs.  

We should end month at  -0.65degs.   This means that while the first 10 days were -11.4, the next 21 days were +4.3.

 

The 8 day period is 4 to 5degs. AN.

[donsutherland1]

Despite bright afternoon sunshine yesterday, the temperature fell from 41° at noon to 35° by 5 pm and then 27° by midnight as a fresh surge of colder air moved into the region. The arrival of January’s latest cold air mass interrupted the thaw that had predominated through much of the second half of the month. As a result, the probability that January will wind up colder than normal as a whole continued to increase.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/24: 30.4° (2.0° below normal)
1/25: 30.2°-30.5° (1/24 estimate: 30.4°-30.6°)
1/31: 31.0°-32.1° (1/24 estimate: 31.1°-32.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 62% (1/24 estimate: 60%)

Winters that feature severe cold in early January, followed by a pronounced thaw, and then a return to severe cold afterward have occurred from time to time in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. The following is an account from Philadelphia:

The winter of 1783-4 was extremely cold, and the ice very thick. In the month of January a thaw came on suddenly, which set the ice afloat: suddenly again the weather became intensely cold, so as to obstruct the floating ice, which was formed into heaps, or dams, across the [Susquehanna] river.

Far more recently, the La Niña (PDO+) winter of 1995-96 provided an example. On January 5-6, New York City saw low temperatures below 10°. By January 18, the high temperature rose above 50°. On January 27, the temperature reached 54°, its last 50° maximum figure of the month. A few days later, on January 30, the pattern shifted toward a colder one. Severe cold returned in early February. On both February 4 and 5, the high temperature reached only 17°. The winter’s coldest temperature, a minimum reading of 5° occurred on February 5. In addition, 12.7” snow fell after February 5, including 9.9” on February 16. March would go on to register three additional 4” or greater snowstorms. The back of the long winter of 1995-96 was finally broken near the end of the second week of April when the mercury rose to 80°.

[jconsor]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite bright afternoon sunshine yesterday, the temperature fell from 41° at noon to 35° by 5 pm and then 27° by midnight as a fresh surge of colder air moved into the region. The arrival of January’s latest cold air mass interrupted the thaw that had predominated through much of the second half of the month. As a result, the probability that January will wind up colder than normal as a whole continued to increase.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/24: 30.4° (2.0° below normal)
1/25: 30.2°-30.5° (1/24 estimate: 30.4°-30.6°)
1/31: 31.0°-32.1° (1/24 estimate: 31.1°-32.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 62% (1/24 estimate: 60%)

Winters that feature severe cold in early January, followed by a pronounced thaw, and then a return to severe cold afterward have occurred from time to time in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. The following is an account from Philadelphia:

The winter of 1783-4 was extremely cold, and the ice very thick. In the month of January a thaw came on suddenly, which set the ice afloat: suddenly again the weather became intensely cold, so as to obstruct the floating ice, which was formed into heaps, or dams, across the [Susquehanna] river.

Far more recently, the La Niña (PDO+) winter of 1995-96 provided an example. On January 5-6, New York City saw low temperatures below 10°. By January 18, the high temperature rose above 50°. On January 27, the temperature reached 54°, its last 50° maximum figure of the month. A few days later, on January 30, the pattern shifted toward a colder one. Severe cold returned in early February. On both February 4 and 5, the high temperature reached only 17°. The winter’s coldest temperature, a minimum reading of 5° occurred on February 5. In addition, 12.7” snow fell after February 5, including 9.9” on February 16. March would go on to register three additional 4” or greater snowstorms. The back of the long winter of 1995-96 was finally broken near the end of the second week of April when the mercury rose to 80°.

Don - thanks for the awesome, detailed description of the 1995-96 winter.  Brings back good memories!

Agreed that a few weeks of thaw mid-winter are common in colder than normal winters.