Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 Picked up 0.24" of rain, current temp 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: This will end up being a very strong and persistent thaw, nearly equalling the very cold 2 week period. I guess that's one way to get a near normal month. We could see the exact scenario play out in February with the first half averaging well above normal with a very cold second half to produce another near normal month. The whole first half is not going to be well above normal. The arrival of the cold keeps getting pushed forward. You may have a couple warm days to start but the thaw is over before we have time to set up Big positive departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 3 weeks of warmth erasing a cold snap and we're looking towards second week of February. Second week of February is nice, but normal highs start to increase, days start getting noticeably longer, March comes up quick. February usually produces some nice snows (sometimes March does too), but the end is in sight. Everyone loves to mention 2015...but that was the extreme of extremes. Heck, last March gave us our only real snow followed by prolonged cold event. Long story short, those are blips as the season pulls away from you. Winter is far from over, but this is the heart of it now. 55 in the heart really hurts. March was not the month for snow last year at the coast. The January and February storms were far larger... February is by far our snowiest month for the city and coast. Introduce sustained cold and chances are very high we see serious snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: March was not the month for snow last year at the coast. The January and February storms were far larger... February is by far our snowiest month for the city and coast. Introduce sustained cold and chances are very high we see serious snow. Always thought the difference was greater but using BNL's numbers 1947 to present Jan. averages 9.42" and Feb 10.84". Feb still the snowiest but smaller difference than I would have guessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: Newark with a record high tied of 62F thus far. Central Park should hit 60F at least I think; another warm bust versus MOS. 60F was the high at KNYC. +17 for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 we are having a classic January thaw ...this winter should have a classic second half...this thaw reminds me of January 1974...It had a mild last ten days of January...The second half of winter was similar to the first half...Feb. was cold...the biggest snowfall of the year came on the 8th...we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: we are having a classic January thaw ...this winter should have a classic second half...this thaw reminds me of January 1974...It had a mild last ten days of January...The second half of winter was similar to the first half...Feb. was cold...the biggest snowfall of the year came on the 8th...we shall see... With the PDO+ and forecast PNA+ (unlike February 1974's PDO- and PNA- during the first half of the month), my guess is that February 2018 will likely see more snowfall than February 1974 (9.4"). Moreover, as a number of La Niña-PDO+ winters have seen 10" or greater snowstorms in the NYC area, prospects for such a storm in February are probably higher than climatology. The highest risk of such a storm might coincide with the period when the MJO goes into Phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, uncle W said: we are having a classic January thaw ...this winter should have a classic second half...this thaw reminds me of January 1974...It had a mild last ten days of January...The second half of winter was similar to the first half...Feb. was cold...the biggest snowfall of the year came on the 8th...we shall see... I remember that Feb 8th snowstorm, it was a Friday, I was in Madison HS in Brooklyn and heard that the storm to our south could not pierce the strong High pressure over us. It came in at about 9AM lasted 6 hours and we had a quick 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: With the PDO+ and forecast PNA+ (unlike February 1974's PDO- and PNA- during the first half of the month), my guess is that February 2018 will likely see more snowfall than February 1974 (9.4"). Moreover, as a number of La Niña-PDO+ winters have seen 10" or greater snowstorms in the NYC area, prospects for such a storm in February are probably higher than climatology. The highest risk of such a storm might coincide with the period when the MJO goes into Phase 8. NYC just missed a 10" snowfall in late February 1974...Freehold NJ got 10"...there are many examples of February having a cold and or snowy period after a good January thaw...1967 comes to mind..,.the ao and pna were favorable for the Feb blizzard...after that the ao remained positive but the snow kept coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: I remember that Feb 8th snowstorm, it was a Friday, I was in Madison HS in Brooklyn and heard that the storm to our south could not pierce the strong High pressure over us. It came in at about 9AM lasted 6 hours and we had a quick 6 inches. that was a great positive bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Pouring in The Bronx. Bring in the cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I thought I would point out that NYC has yet to have a snow to rain event this winter. Every measurable snow event has been all snow or rain to snow as is the case with the most recent 0.4 event. I think that shows us how fairly inactive or weak the storm track has been overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Record station high temp of 60 today...also missed most of the rain with 0.21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: that was a great positive bust... On March 29th, 1974 also a Friday, there was another storm that was not suppose to be that deposited 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Only had .18 inches of rain today with a high temp of 58 (Sheepshead Bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: March was not the month for snow last year at the coast. The January and February storms were far larger... February is by far our snowiest month for the city and coast. Introduce sustained cold and chances are very high we see serious snow. We had a major storm on the 13th. Sustained cold from 11-16. It was the only storm last year with sustained cold and snow cover. Every other storm started melting the day after it fell. IMO, That week in March was the only true winter-feeling week in the 2016-2017 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 hours ago, sferic said: On March 29th, 1974 also a Friday, there was another storm that was not suppose to be that deposited 4 inches of snow. I was watching temperatures drop that day while it was raining...I thought it was going to change to snow and it did...I drove to the Poconos that night (I was the only car on the road) and they got 10" from that event...even April had a little snow on a record cold morning in 1974... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 46 minutes ago, uncle W said: I was watching temperatures drop that day while it was raining...I thought it was going to change to snow and it did...I drove to the Poconos that night (I was the only car on the road) and they got 10" from that event...even April had a little snow on a record cold morning in 1974... Awhile back you posted the dates and amounts for the snows for the winter of 1966-67, if possible can you repost or send it to me as a message? Thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The whole first half is not going to be well above normal. The arrival of the cold keeps getting pushed forward. You may have a couple warm days to start but the thaw is over before we have time to set up Big positive departures There were indications by several Mets that a prolonged cool down would start after Feb 10 to even as late as Feb 15. That would give us plenty of days to rack up very positive departures. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Feb 1-14 period average 4+ degrees. But because of that delay, the winter spell could last from Feb 15-March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There were indications by several Mets that a prolonged cool down would start after Feb 10 to even as late as Feb 15. That would give us plenty of days to rack up very positive departures. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Feb 1-14 period average 4+ degrees. But because of that delay, the winter spell could last from Feb 15-March 10. The trough is back between the 3rd and the 5th no later We will rack up 3 days of AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 LGA and JFK will finish comfortably BN for the month of Jan as will Feb That will mean Nov Dec Jan Feb finish BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There were indications by several Mets that a prolonged cool down would start after Feb 10 to even as late as Feb 15. That would give us plenty of days to rack up very positive departures. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Feb 1-14 period average 4+ degrees. But because of that delay, the winter spell could last from Feb 15-March 10. IMO, the trough will return near or just after the end of the first week in February. Further, the transition will take place during the first week and, the AO- among other factors, will allow for enough cooler air to avoid the first week’s being a genuine “torch.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: There were indications by several Mets that a prolonged cool down would start after Feb 10 to even as late as Feb 15. That would give us plenty of days to rack up very positive departures. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Feb 1-14 period average 4+ degrees. But because of that delay, the winter spell could last from Feb 15-March 10. It’s possible there is an initial shot 2/2-2/5 then it moderates again before cooling back off around the 10th-12th. The GEFS has sort of shown a rebound after the initial cool down and the MJO not yet being into phase 8 until around 2-10 may support that idea. It’s somewhat tough to trust the GEFS as they’ve had a tendency this winter to try and dump those trofs too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: LGA and JFK will finish comfortably BN for the month of Jan as will Feb That will mean Nov Dec Jan Feb finish BN. Would be impressive to run that streak to four months...Even with the recent warmth, my station is still -3.2° for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is. -2.2degs. Combined with the above would leave Jan. @ -0.35degs. for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s possible there is an initial shot 2/2-2/5 then it moderates again before cooling back off around the 10th-12th. The GEFS has sort of shown a rebound after the initial cool down and the MJO not yet being into phase 8 until around 2-10 may support that idea. It’s somewhat tough to trust the GEFS as they’ve had a tendency this winter to try and dump those trofs too far west The moderation isn't real. That's feedback. - EPO HP does not dump the trough into the W. The ridge is a fallacy, it's a byproduct of a W trough that doesn't exist The EPS shows you the W ridge. The trough is in well before the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Through January 23, New York City has had a mean temperature of 30.2°. That is 2.2° below normal. At this point, it appears likely that NYC will have its first colder than normal December-January pair since winter 2010-11. There is an approximate 53% probability that January’s anomaly will exceed 0.5° below normal. All said, January 2018 will be the coldest January since 2015 when the month had an average temperature of 29.9°. With prospects that February could also wind up colder than normal, winter 2017-18 could be the first winter since 2009-10 to have cold anomalies in all three months of meteorological winter. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/23: 30.2° (2.2° below normal) 1/25: 30.4°-30.6° (1/23 estimate: 30.2°-30.7°) 1/31: 31.1°-32.5° (1/23 estimate: 31.2°-32.7°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 60% (1/23 estimate: 57%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The EPS is brutal once again in the 10 to 15. It brings the trough back full bore on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The EPS is brutal once again in the 10 to 15. It brings the trough back full bore on the 3rd. It's trending much stronger with the -WPO block in recent days so the cold comes faster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 10 hours ago, sferic said: Awhile back you posted the dates and amounts for the snows for the winter of 1966-67, if possible can you repost or send it to me as a message? Thanks ! 12/13-14...trace....snow and rain mixed... 12/20-21.....1.2"...snow to rain to snow... 12/24-25.....7.1"...snow to sleet to snow... 12/28-29.....0.8"...snow to heavy rain... 1/19............0.3"...light snow... 1/29............0.3" 1/31............0.3" 2/6..............2.7" 2/7............12.5" 2/10............2.0" 2/18............1.8" 2/21..........trace...mixed... 2/23............3.8" wet snow... 2/27-28.......0.9" wet snow... 3/5..............2.0" snow to heavy rain... 3/15-16.......2.6" rain to sleet to snow... 3/17............3.0" very cold... 3/21-22.......9.8" wet snow... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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