CIK62 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is -4.7degs. Should be just -0.80degs. by the 29th. at this rate. Last 3 days of month would still need to be +7.3degs to get to NORMAL for month. Just think---we were -11.4degs. after the first 10 days of the month, but may end less than one degree below normal---and like a Marathon runner ready for the ALS Ambulance after 26+ miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 19 hours ago, snowman19 said: Nice disco. The hope of any SSW looks nil through mid-February, at least. By then, we will be down to 2 weeks of met winter left. The NAO just does not want to play ball at all, hasn’t for the last several winters in a row actually. Whether this is AMO related, geomag, a combo of both or something else at play, I don’t know The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB. Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven. 2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you. I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB. Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven. 2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you. I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break. I like that look on the EPS. You see the dateline ridge get replaced with a trough, so that pushes the EPO neg. That happens by day 10. The trough looks more amplified by day 15, should amplify the western ridging if you roll that forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Monthly Dep thru 1/20 NYC: -4.8 (lowest 5 / warmest 61) EWR: -4.8 (Lowest 4 / warmest 64) LGA: -5.7 (lowest 6 / warmest 60) JFK: -6.3 (lowest 4 / warmest 54) ISP: -4.1 (lowest 2 / wamrest 58) TTN: -4.4 (lowest -2 / warmest 65 ) PHL: -4.3 (lowest 4 / warmest 64) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Snow totals thru 1/20 NYC: 17.9 EWR: 17.1 LGA: 15.6 JFK: 14.9 ISP: 22.0 TTN: 14.0 PHL: 12.9 ACY: 24.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Snow totals thru 1/20 NYC: 17.9 EWR: 17.1 LGA: 15.6 JFK: 14.9 TTN: 14.0 PHL: 12.9 Can you bring that up north a bit? HPN, BDR, DXR, MGJ, POU and SWF would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Snow totals thru 1/20 NYC: 17.9 EWR: 17.1 LGA: 15.6 JFK: 14.9 TTN: 14.0 PHL: 12.9 Coastal sections are in the lead heading into February. ISP....22.0 ACY...24.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Can you bring that up north a bit? HPN, BDR, DXR, MGJ, POU and SWF would be nice. POU : 23.9 SWF: 20.1 will get the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Didn't I just read a week ago that the Siberian air was going to be erased from Canada and once on the other side of the globe it wasn't coming back? I also read how 4 plus inches of snow had a 10 % chance of verifying N and W last week ( 6 to 8 fell there ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Can you bring that up north a bit? HPN, BDR, DXR, MGJ, POU and SWF would be nice. 11 minutes ago, SACRUS said: POU : 23.9 SWF: 20.1 will get the others I’m about 2 miles from KMGJ and have 21.7” YTD. Where did you find SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, SACRUS said: POU : 23.9 SWF: 20.1 will get the others Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The January thaw continues. Yesterday saw readings rising into the 50s across much of the area. New York City experienced its third 50° or warmer temperature this month. With the currently negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), there can still be some transient cold shots. One appears likely later this week. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/20: 27.8° (4.7° below normal; 1/20 estimate: 27.6°-27.9°) 1/25: 30.3°-31.3° (1/20 estimate: 30.0°-31.2°) 1/31: 31.4°-33.4° (1/20 estimate: 31.5°-33.7°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 52% (1/20 estimate: 50%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 UHI at work this am with 28° low here and 42° at NYC and LGA...Monthly departure here of -5.9° thru yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: I like that look on the EPS. You see the dateline ridge get replaced with a trough, so that pushes the EPO neg. That happens by day 10. The trough looks more amplified by day 15, should amplify the western ridging if you roll that forward. Everything was more amplified around day 15 including the MJO. Things can get really interesting with such a strong push into 7 and perhaps 8 shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Can temperatures at KNYC next month drop below our season low of what, 5 I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB. Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven. 2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you. I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break. I am not worried about a SSW. Despite Social Media predictions that seemingly have forecast six of the last one SSW events, they remain poorly understood and poorly modeled. Last winter was a great case in point where there were at least three such modeled events. None occurred. They occur about once every two winters. I agree with your emphasis on the MJO and fully expect the return of the colder pattern that took hold beginning in late December. I continue to look forward to a very good February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: Everything was more amplified around day 15 including the MJO. Things can get really interesting with such a strong push into 7 and perhaps 8 shortly after. It's nice to see that amplification as we get into more favorable phases. Thanks for posting that. Probably ,at the very least partially, explains the amplifying look @ 500mb out towards the end of last nights EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 5 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The trough is back by Feb 5 with the Vortex sitting to the W of HB. Who cares about an "SST" , it's not in any forecast disco , It will MJO driven. 2 weeks lol , it's another - EPO driven Feb. I would bundle up from 5th onward if I were you. I invite anyone to look at the day 13 thru 15 evolution at 500 and see what's coming back after our well advertised break. Just going by living around here for decades, it would be unusual ( but not unheard of ) for winter to just crap out and stay that way until spring. 2011 was an example, though we'd had an epic winter by that time already. Even 2007 and 2008 brought some snow or ice in Feb ( though 2007's sleetfests were a disappointment but were modeled to be IIRC ) so I can buy into the idea that it will get cold and possibly snowy again. Even in 1994 we had some warm temps IIRC in late Jan and thought we were in the clear ( we hadn't had snowy winter before then in ten years or so ) before Feb and March delivered. It's been my experience that mild winters tend to start out that way and stay that way. Just my unscientific two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: It's nice to see that amplification as we get into more favorable phases. Thanks for posting that. Probably ,at the very least partially, explains the amplifying look @ 500mb out towards the end of last nights EPS. Yeah, the stronger push into MJO 7 explains the EPS faster return to -EPO than what the most recent weekly run was showing. MJO 7 will enhance the winter background -EPO state . A move into 8 after would let the -EPO block expand eastward into +PNA. New run 2/1 -EPO Old run 2/6 -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the stronger push into MJO 7 explains the EPS faster return to -EPO than what the most recent weekly run was showing. MJO 7 will enhance the winter background -EPO state . A move into 8 after would let the -EPO block expand eastward into +PNA. Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, doncat said: UHI at work this am with 28° low here and 42° at NYC and LGA...Monthly departure here of -5.9° thru yesterday. Yeah the last 2 nights have turned out milder than forecast, even when taking the UHI into account. I dunno if places still had snow cover and if thats playing into the divide too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 53 minutes ago, psv88 said: Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun. It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 we're in the era of patterns repeating themselves so i wouldn't rule out another extended below freezing stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2. It doesn’t look like it would reach 8 til the 6th-8th of the month. I don’t see it getting out of the cold phases at that point before the month is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic to slow the flow down a bit. These 8-12 hour storms are intense and all, but it would be great to have one of those 24 to 36 hour blockbusters from pre 2014. Trough orientation and cold air is one thing, but some traffic to our NE would be alot more fun. Jan 4 would have been an all time great if it were moving slower. 14” in less then 12 hours is a pretty big deal regardless. I would be willing bet the farm we see an above normal snow February on the island. We tend to do really well mid feb to mid March when water temps are already below normal. Throw in even modest cold and you get several snow events. I’m not sure we see another blockbuster but several advisory events (or more) apear likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2. @bluewave Do you think that the more amped MJO we are seeing ( both previously and forecasted as well ) have any relationship to what JB refers to in a recent post, to which he states he feels that there is a connection between the low solar background and a East QBO to which continues to desend ? Thanks as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America. So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America. So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced. you don't want the vortex overwhelming the pattern - need the southern stream getting involved also - we need the precip to get back to at least normal - we have been stuck in a dry pattern since the second half of last summer - since Dec 1 NYC has had 3.76 inches liquid normal is 6.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, frd said: @bluewave Do you think that thee more amped MJO we are seeing ( both previously and forecasted as well ) have any relationship to what JB refers to in a recent post, to which he states he feels that there is a connection between the low solar background and a East QBO to which continues to desend ? Thanks as always. It looks like there has been some research into this, so it looks like that idea has some support. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/full Quote Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 38 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Something really promising for Feb is that this ‘thaw’ pattern is also building great fresh cold in eastern Siberia, right where it can be best tapped with x-polar flow into North America. So yeah, you’re giving up a couple of weeks of winter, but in exchange you’re building a big, deep, fresh arctic airmass that can be tapped if the polar vortex is displaced. Yeah, the WPO block opens a cross polar Siberian channel into Canada during the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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