Isotherm Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 ECMWF MJO continues to correct more coherent/stronger w/ the ewd propagating wave. It's into phase 7 by the first week of February which is congruous with a pretty torchy look along the East Coast for the first week to possibly 10 days of February. Extrapolated progression coupled w/ stratospheric evolution still yields the height of the more wintry pattern occurring approximately Feb 10th +/- a couple days through early March. The vortex reconsolidates near Greenland in the medium term, so expect a neutralizing AO and positive NAO for early February. At this point, the wave activity flux does not appear sufficiently potent to me to engender a minor or major stratospheric warming event. However, there will be continued hits to the SPV. Wave-2 precursor doesn't look as conducive as it did before, but that can change. At this point in time, I am operating under the assumption that there will be minimal aid from the North Atlantic, until the MJO propagates into phase 1, which could provide a window for ephemeral -NAO blocking around the President's Day weekend time frame. If the stratospheric indictors improve, the NAO could be more sustained. We'll see. Enjoy the early spring temperatures for the next 2-3 weeks until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Ewr already at their forecast high of 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 38 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah we underperformed by about 8 degrees here yesterday but we're already 20 degrees off the low at 10 am this morning. Yeah, Newark is already 50 degrees and it's only 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 49 here, sunshine and calm winds, it feels like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: 49 here, sunshine and calm winds, it feels like spring. Quite gusty here otherwise it would feel very springlike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, Isotherm said: ECMWF MJO continues to correct more coherent/stronger w/ the ewd propagating wave. It's into phase 7 by the first week of February which is congruous with a pretty torchy look along the East Coast for the first week to possibly 10 days of February. Extrapolated progression coupled w/ stratospheric evolution still yields the height of the more wintry pattern occurring approximately Feb 10th +/- a couple days through early March. The vortex reconsolidates near Greenland in the medium term, so expect a neutralizing AO and positive NAO for early February. At this point, the wave activity flux does not appear sufficiently potent to me to engender a minor or major stratospheric warming event. However, there will be continued hits to the SPV. Wave-2 precursor doesn't look as conducive as it did before, but that can change. At this point in time, I am operating under the assumption that there will be minimal aid from the North Atlantic, until the MJO propagates into phase 1, which could provide a window for ephemeral -NAO blocking around the President's Day weekend time frame. If the stratospheric indictors improve, the NAO could be more sustained. We'll see. Enjoy the early spring temperatures for the next 2-3 weeks until then. Nice disco. The hope of any SSW looks nil through mid-February, at least. By then, we will be down to 2 weeks of met winter left. The NAO just does not want to play ball at all, hasn’t for the last several winters in a row actually. Whether this is AMO related, geomag, a combo of both or something else at play, I don’t know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Strongly feel January temps end up slightly AN when all is said and done. Days like today are perfect examples of why, where we can easily over perform by several degrees. We saw this to a lesser extent in September where a record cold start couldn't stop the month from being AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Strongly feel January temps end up slightly AN when all is said and done. Days like today are perfect examples of why, where we can easily over perform by several degrees. We saw this to a lesser extent in September where a record cold start couldn't stop the month from being AN. Perhaps but there's also some sneaky cold like next Thursday thru Saturday. Then we torch but might only be for the final 3 days of the month. If we end up with 60s then yeah we probably end up above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAO just does not want to play ball at all, hasn’t for the last several winters in a row actually. Whether this is AMO related, geomag, a combo of both or something else at play, I don’t know We have gotten some NAO help from time to time like the brief drop before the January 4th blizzard. But the blocking regime since the 13-14 winter has been NEPAC dominant. You can see the NPAC and NATL at levels of record SST warmth since 13-14. Though that cold pool south of Greenland and Iceland has become a prominent feature. 13-14 to 16-17 winters Most recent SST's in Jan 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Strongly feel January temps end up slightly AN when all is said and done. Days like today are perfect examples of why, where we can easily over perform by several degrees. We saw this to a lesser extent in September where a record cold start couldn't stop the month from being AN. Not a chance. There aren’t going to be enough significantly AN days and we have 3-4 days middle to end of this week that will average near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 the winter of 2004-05 had two two week periods of much above normal temperatures the first half of January and February...The second halves yielded two two week periods of frequent snows and below average temperatures...I think the bigger the thaw the bigger the come back is in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will be the greatest January for warm and cold extremes combined since 2005. 2007 was something like +15 by mid month and ended around +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We have gotten some NAO help from time to time like the brief drop before the January 4th blizzard. But the blocking regime since the 13-14 winter has been NEPAC dominant. You can see the NPAC and NATL at levels of record SST warmth since 13-14. Though that cold pool south of Greenland and Iceland has become a prominent feature. 13-14 to 16-17 winters Most recent SST's in Jan 18 Right, minus very brief transient bouts, we have seen predominant +NAO winters the last several. I’ve seen good evidence that geomag and the AMO are to blame. Regardless, the overall November through February state has been decidedly positive and at times extremely positive. For whatever reason, shortening wavelengths? It has seemed to want to flip negative come March and April. We’ve seen this more than a few times already where there is a total NAO flip in March and it lasts through April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Right, minus very brief transient bouts, we have seen predominant +NAO winters the last several. I’ve seen good evidence that geomag and the AMO are to blame. Regardless, the overall November through February state has been decidedly positive and at times extremely positive. For whatever reason, shortening wavelengths? It has seemed to want to flip negative come March and April. We’ve seen this more than a few times already where there is a total NAO flip in March and it lasts through April While I am not sure of the exact reason for the NAO shift in 2013, the cold pool was well forecast by the CCSM4 climate model in January 2013. This has been the best multi-year forecast of all time. The SST configuration since then has been spot on. It really nailed the Pacific climate shift and NATL cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: While I am not sure of the exact reason for the shift in 2013, it was well forecast by the CCSM4 climate model in January 2013. This has been the best multi-year forecast of all time. The SST configuration since then has been spot on. It really nailed the Pacific climate shift and NATL cold pool. A North Atlantic cold pool south of Greenland = trouble for a -NAO. You want to see a tripole look, not a dipole look. We’ve had that dipole look for the last several +NAO winters and it’s no coincidence. It’s been years now since the Atlantic has shown a classic tripole.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A North Atlantic cold pool south of Greenland = trouble for a -NAO. You want to see a tripole look, not a dipole look. We’ve had that dipole look for the last several +NAO winters and it’s no coincidence. It’s been years now since the Atlantic has shown a classic tripole.... In any event, the cold pool was easily forecast by the CCSM4 and the MET Office climate models in 2012 and 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 Current temp is 53 here, also winds pretty gusty as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 The west wind is negating any cooling from the now below normal near shore water temps. My remaining snow here on the south shore is toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Record high tie at ISP. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 240 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 2013. IF THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 56 ANOTHER RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT ONCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY IS REACHED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Strongly feel January temps end up slightly AN when all is said and done. Days like today are perfect examples of why, where we can easily over perform by several degrees. We saw this to a lesser extent in September where a record cold start couldn't stop the month from being AN. I think snowcover will also play a factor with this "thaw" not exactly torching out there right now. 43 for a high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 This is a clear sign that this La Niña event has just peaked. This was a more traditional “east-based” Niña event to start, now, it has begun to move west, enhanced trade winds and upwelling in (western ENSO) regions 3.4 and 4 and downwelling, decreased trades and warming in region 1+2 has begun. It’s going to continue to become more “west-based” from here on out. Nina’s traditionally start east, and move west as winter wears on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is a clear sign that this La Niña event has just peaked. This was a more traditional “east-based” Niña event to start, now, it has begun to move west, enhanced trade winds and upwelling in (western ENSO) regions 3.4 and 4 and downwelling, decreased trades and warming in region 1+2 has begun. It’s going to continue to become more “west-based” from here on out. Nina’s traditionally start east, and move west as winter wears on We'll see if the Euro is correct about the spring ENSO warming in the east like we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The lack of -NAO luckily hasn’t been horrible for us in the snow department. Down by DC it’s been a complete disaster. I think this illustrates that we are closer to New England’s snow climate then we are to the Mid Atlantic’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The lack of -NAO luckily hasn’t been horrible for us in the snow department. Down by DC it’s been a complete disaster. I think this illustrates that we are closer to New England’s snow climate then we are to the Mid Atlantic’s Big snow hole near DC so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 AO There are a few members that bring the AO positive in the 1st week of February but the majority have it rising towards neutral and then dropping like a rock in the 1st week of February http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Big snow hole near DC so far this winter. And the usual Central PA Middle Finger which has been dominant for the last 10+ years. Incredible stretch of lousiness there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 45 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And the usual Central PA Middle Finger which has been dominant for the last 10+ years. Incredible stretch of lousiness there. That’s gotta be painful there. Especially since they are inland and north of 40. They had a serious run in the early 90s too. But their loss is our gain. DC is just a bad snow location except for strong -NAO Years. 9/10 was DC’s glory year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Big snow hole near DC so far this winter. Must be really frustrating in DC because cold air hasn't been a problem. These coastal storms scrape the coast to far east for them or develop to late. Every storm we've gotten they got as a dusting to <1". Most of the Delmarva and even VA Beach area has much more snow than DC. I used to live there so I guess I have a soft spot for them. Even before that I use to visit a lot as a kid and it seemed easier to get snow there then now during the 2010s. Like the pattern that has been snowy here during the 2010s is doing the opposite there. Imagining living there and seeing places near the Gulf Coast get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s gotta be painful there. Especially since they are inland and north of 40. They had a serious run in the early 90s too. But their loss is our gain. DC is just a bad snow location except for strong -NAO Years. 9/10 was DC’s glory year Ninas besides rare ones like 95-96 are bad south of 40. Storms develop too late and too east for them. They need long track storms like those in Ninos and blocking to slow the pattern down. The Southeast has been very lucky this year when storms have been more suppressed. The strong SE ridge has brought us luck by bringing the suppressed storms close enough, and we’re not as reliant on the -NAO as DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 And Central PA is in a terrible run of luck, especially since that area averages as much snow as Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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