Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm starting to wonder if better conditions will return too late for us to benefit. 2/15 is pretty late and if it gets delayed further than that then climo starts to play a big role. 2005 had 3 warning level storms after February 20th. I mean if you're looking for long lasting cold and weeks of snow cover probably not but we can certainly cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2005 had 3 warning level storms after February 20th. I mean if you're looking for long lasting cold and weeks of snow cover probably not but we can certainly cash in. Yeah, it's the pattern which dictates the timing of snowstorms. During the 2010's we have had warning level snows from early November through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2005 had 3 warning level storms after February 20th. I mean if you're looking for long lasting cold and weeks of snow cover probably not but we can certainly cash in. I think 04 also had a storm in March and April after a terrible February. That was I believe one of just two February’s that followed double digit snow December’s and January’s that failed to have at least 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 The idea that the second half of the January thaw, which has seen some interruptions, would feature the longest period of sustained warmer than normal anomalies still appears on course. Around a week ago, I had some concern based on 500 mb pattern recognition that the AO could turn positive (this was a separate development from the nearer-term idea of the currently positive AO, which will end in the next day or two) during the January 20-25 period. The 500 mb pattern suggested a transition of sorts in the AO region. This idea gave me further confidence that the second half of the thaw would see more sustained warm anomalies that the front half. The guidance is hinting at such a possibility. Back then, I noted: Given some of the 500 mb forecasts on the ensembles, I could see the AO going positive for a time in the January 20-25 timeframe, even as the majority of ensemble members keep the AO negative. Such an outcome would increase prospects for above to possibly much above normal readings during the closing days of the thaw. During the January 20-30, 1981-2010 base period, the mean temperature for a PNA of -0.75 or below/AO+ is 39.6° vs. 31.9° for climatology. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50695-january-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4768918 Overnight, the GEFS has turned strongly to that idea (see attached image). In my view, this is not a bad development. Instead, it is the kind of transition that has often preceded a return to sustained blocking. It's the development of such blocking that will prove important in influencing the long-term February outcome. Right now, I remain confident in the return of the EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern that has defined winter 2017-18 so far. Before then, I suspect it will be at least a week before there are any snowfall opportunities for the NYC area (probably at least through 1/25). It remains possible that there could be an event that brings at least some measurable snow before the end of January, but that would be a bonus in what has been a snowy month.If things work out the way I am thinking right now, the first week of February will likely mark a transition. Then, there will be a 3 to perhaps 4-week period of frequently colder than normal weather (not unbroken) with above climatological probabilities of measurable snowfall. Considering that numerous La Niña-PDO winters have featured a 12" or greater snowstorm in NYC (and nearby regions), there could be a possibility of a large snowstorm at some point in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it's the pattern which dictates the timing of snowstorms. During the 2010's we have had warning level snows from early November through March. Yes, but never throughout. Sporadic at times, in waves at times...but you could never count on it. I would love a cold, snowy winter that started in December and rode out til March, but I don't know if that's possible anymore. The unpredictable has become predictable sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 37 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Yes, but never throughout. Sporadic at times, in waves at times...but you could never count on it. I would love a cold, snowy winter that started in December and rode out til March, but I don't know if that's possible anymore. The unpredictable has become predictable sadly. In NYC metro a wall to wall winter with cold and snow has for the most part never really been possible, not just “anymore”. We don’t live in Barrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: In NYC metro a wall to wall winter with cold and snow has for the most part never really been possible, not just “anymore”. We don’t live in Barrow. The winters that qualify as wall to wall winter for me are 1993/1994, 1995/1996 (to some extent), 2002/2003, 2010/2011, 2013/2014, and 2014/2015. All these winters were above average snow, below average temps, and overall at least a straight 1-2 months with snowcover with present (but limited) thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: The winters that qualify as wall to wall winter for me are 1993/1994, 1995/1996 (to some extent), 2002/2003, 2010/2011, 2013/2014, and 2014/2015. All these winters were above average snow, below average temps, and overall at least a straight 1-2 months with snowcover with present (but limited) thaws. I guess it depends on what we’re considering wall to wall, it sounds like some expect no thaws whatsoever, which of course is not practical in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Yes, but never throughout. Sporadic at times, in waves at times...but you could never count on it. I would love a cold, snowy winter that started in December and rode out til March, but I don't know if that's possible anymore. The unpredictable has become predictable sadly. November to April extended snow and cold is a tough feat to pull off. That's why 95-96 stands alone in the list of great winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: November to April extended snow and cold is a tough feat to pull off. That's why 95-96 stands alone in the list of great winters. and even that winter had a big Jan Thaw. A snow to rain storm followed the big blizzard and then 2-3 cutters after that each coming with 50-55 degree warmth and snowpack obliterating rains...it was not until very late Jan that the cold/snow pattern resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and even that winter had a big Jan Thaw. A snow to rain storm followed the big blizzard and then 2-3 cutters after that each coming with 50-55 degree warmth and snowpack obliterating rains...it was not until very late Jan that the cold/snow pattern resumed. The 90 inch seasonal snowfall record for LI has been the only snow record left that the 2010's haven't been able to break.95-96 had incredible Nov-Apr snow production. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I like the fact that it is thawing between the 19th-22nd...it fits the folklore...when winter returns it should be as good or bad as before the thaw...I'm on the Feb=Mar train as of now too...NYC has 18" of snow so far...I would not be surprised to see 15-20" more after the thaw...this is thaw two...I think we freeze and thaw a few more times before winters last blast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think 04 also had a storm in March and April after a terrible February. That was I believe one of just two February’s that followed double digit snow December’s and January’s that failed to have at least 3 inches Yeah February that year did nothing but we had a decent event in early March. Its rare to have above average snowfall each month from Dec to March. But this year we could easily do it despite the long thaw because of early Jan and a good Dec. The halfway point is not until around Feb 1st and most places are 60-90% of seasonal average already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, uncle W said: I like the fact that it is thawing between the 19th-22nd...it fits the folklore...when winter returns it should be as good or bad as before the thaw...I'm on the Feb=Mar train as of now too...NYC has 18" of snow so far...I would not be surprised to see 15-20" more after the thaw...this is thaw two...I think we freeze and thaw a few more times before winters last blast... We have a great track record for snowstorms during the 2010's and even 2000's following winter mild periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We have a great track record for snowstorms during the 2010's following winter mild periods. some of our greatest winters had a January thaw...after it the winter was as bad or good as before...1963 -64 had 24" before their thaw and 20" after...1995-96 had 40" before their thaw and 35" after...1966-67 had 10" before their thaw...41" after...2009-10 had 13" before their thaw...38" after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, uncle W said: some of our greatest winters had a January thaw...after it the winter was as bad or good as before...1963 -64 had 24" before their thaw and 20" after...1995-96 had 40" before their thaw and 35" after...1966-67 had 10" before their thaw...41" after...2009-10 had 13" before their thaw...38" after... Yeah, warning level snows have become very common following mild winter periods since 2000. It hasn't really mattered what the timing of the milder intervals have been. All the winters below have produced warning level snows following mild stretches 00-01...04-05...05-06...09-10...12-13...13-14...14-15....15-16....16-17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, warning level snows have become very common following mild winter periods since 2000. It hasn't really mattered what the timing of the milder intervals have been. All the winters below have produced warning level snows following mild stretches 00-01...04-05...05-06...09-10...12-13...13-14...14-15....15-16....16-17 I think la nina winters have more snowfalls after a mild day...it happened a lot in the 1960's...recently we got snow after a 60 degree day...we have gotten our share of snow despite bad indices and mild temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: I think la nina winters have more snowfalls after a mild day...it happened a lot in the 1960's...recently we got snow after a 60 degree day...we have gotten our share of snow despite bad indices and mild temperatures... I should probably add 07-08 to the list with the late Feb warning levels snows following the early month 60's. I think winter was officially cancelled after the 68 on 2-6-08. But the late month SWFE delivered for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: I think la nina winters have more snowfalls after a mild day...it happened a lot in the 1960's...recently we got snow after a 60 degree day...we have gotten our share of snow despite bad indices and mild temperatures... Last winter, there were two such cases where accumulating snow followed 60° days: February 8, 2017: High: 62°; February 9: 9.4" snow March 9, 2017: High: 61°; March 10: 2.1" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 A mathematical analysis was conducted by a Mt. Holly meteorologist concerning the PHL possible departure for January by month's end. PHL is currently -5.8 for January. Utilizing the raw 2m temperatures from the GFS yields a -0.6 final departure. That requires a significant warm period to accomplish. I suspect the operational 2m's may be underdone as well on a handful of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 hours ago, Zelocita Weather said: The winters that qualify as wall to wall winter for me are 1993/1994, 1995/1996 (to some extent), 2002/2003, 2010/2011, 2013/2014, and 2014/2015. All these winters were above average snow, below average temps, and overall at least a straight 1-2 months with snowcover with present (but limited) thaws. Until mid January of 2015 that winter was dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 28 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Until mid January of 2015 that winter was dead. yep-we all thought we were done especially after a big MLK weekend rainstorm....by that Friday we had a snow to drizzle storm and we were off and running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep-we all thought we were done especially after a big MLK weekend rainstorm....by that Friday we had a snow to drizzle storm and we were off and running.... Yeah, another ridiculous 2010's temperature and snow extreme swing. Christmas in the 60's with a 40 degree average December. Followed by the coldest JFM since 1920 and snowy. If that wasn't enough, we started our record warm month run that spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: some of our greatest winters had a January thaw...after it the winter was as bad or good as before...1963 -64 had 24" before their thaw and 20" after...1995-96 had 40" before their thaw and 35" after...1966-67 had 10" before their thaw...41" after...2009-10 had 13" before their thaw...38" after... Uncle I remember 1966-67 growing up as a 9 YO in Brooklyn. I am curious though did Long Island fare better than NYC in 66-67 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: You can see where we are headed going into February - move ahead into 1st week of Feb. ridge in the west - trough in the east and blocking to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 hours ago, sferic said: Uncle I remember 1966-67 growing up as a 9 YO in Brooklyn. I am curious though did Long Island fare better than NYC in 66-67 ? I think so...there were many coastal lows that grazed our area and hit L I harder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 today was the 20th day with a maximum 32 or lower in NYC...we still have six weeks to add to that total...here are the other winters since 1976-77 with 20 or more days with a max 32 or lower...also the longest streak...snowfall and largest snowfall... year.....# 32 or lower/consecutive/snowfall/biggest snowfall... 2017-18..........20..........14..........17.9"............9.8" 2014-15..........26............5..........50.3"............9.8" 2013-14..........33............7..........57.4"..........12.5" 2010-11..........22............4..........61.9"..........20.0" 2008-09..........22............3..........27.6"............8.3" 2003-04..........26............9..........42.6"..........14.0" 2002-03..........31..........12..........49.3"..........19.8" 2000-01..........20..........13..........35.0"..........12.0" 1995-96..........30............9..........75.6"..........20.2" 1993-94..........31............5..........53.4"..........12.8" 1983-84..........29............8..........25.4"............6.9" 1981-82..........20............6..........24.6"............9.6" 1980-81..........30..........11..........19.4"............8.6" 1978-79..........26..........11..........29.4"..........12.7" 1977-78..........42..........12..........50.7"..........17.7" 1976-77..........45............9..........24.5"............5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 hours ago, sferic said: Uncle I remember 1966-67 growing up as a 9 YO in Brooklyn. I am curious though did Long Island fare better than NYC in 66-67 ? Brookhaven natl lab shows 74.9” for 66/67. 32.5 in Feb and 31.5 in March. Nice late season push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Weeklies start a wintry pattern near the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.