January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll be much warmer than that in a few days. Mostly 40s and 50s until February. 

Can't wait, cold weather does nothing.

With cold shots in between and a storm or two

[MJO812]

18z GEFS  have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th.

Not a big thaw at all

[weatherpruf]

49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS  have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th.

Not a big thaw at all

Doesn't seem to want to stay warm this year; today felt nice walking in the park because it wasn't arctic for a change; I get tired of walking in the mall for my daily walks....

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS  have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th.

Not a big thaw at all

GEFS looked pretty mild to me, MJO will be unfavorable until probably the 2nd week of Feb so snow chances will be very slim.

Also EPO/PNA stay unfavorable until that time as well. The -AO may stop us from seeing 60+ but it'll still be really mild for the coldest time of the year. 

It's a solid 2+ week break after tomorrow with cooler days mixed in. 

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS  have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th.

Not a big thaw at all

Well to be fair I don't think we expected a big thaw.  However, it looks to be N to AN for some time (with cooler shots included like SnoSki mentioned).

[Isotherm]

No real alterations to my thoughts. This week has demonstrated that a less than auspicious circulation will tend to make it exceedingly difficult to produce coastal snowfall of significance (or at all). At the end of the day, the 1/5-2/5 period of this winter will be remembered for being mostly snow-less along I-95 from NYC southward, in my opinion. The warmer than normal pattern is on track, and the somewhat delayed initiation does not implicate a shorter thaw period. The ephemeral pulse of blocking and concomitant favorability across the northern tier circa Jan 26th +/- a couple days is directly related to the wave-1 energy transfer into the stratosphere. Vertical propagation of rossby waves will decrease thereafter as wave 1/2 remain suppressed, with a subsequent neutralization of the NAM. Thus, the SPV will strengthen again toward the final days of January (ozone remains below normal now actually). By the end of January, frictional torque and soon after mountain torque should surge positive w/ a renewed jet extension and GWO circulation toward p4. There will be numerous days in the 40s and 50s over the course of the next few weeks. There is a chance, especially in the interior, for a wintry event late January; this is low probability for the coast, and if anything occurred, would likely be low-end. February then turns warm for the first week at least. I expect wave 2 to increase in early February resulting in more pressure on the vortex, and more wave 1 activity soon following. The eastward jet extension and propagating tropical forcing will eventually reconfigure the North Pacific circulation through rossby wave breaks such that we resume poleward EPO ridging, and more importantly, inclusion of the PNA domain, as we approach mid February. The AO will turn negative as well, possibly with some NAO support for the first time this winter, but that is more indeterminate. I am confident that the middle of February onward (second week, but probably mid/late in that week, the 10th +/- a few days) will feature another bout of favorability. This should produce the second window to which I referred pre-season, for a significant+ snow event on the East Coast. My winter outlook had that window as Feb 1-15, but I think a more accurate range is now Feb 8-22. At this point, I think the more conducive period could run at least 3 weeks. Prior to that initiation, we have at least 3 weeks of hostile circulation with significantly suppressed snow opportunities for the coast, better in the interior Northeast.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region are seeing snowfall this morning, while other areas closer to the City and eastward are experiencing a cold rain or even some freezing rain. A period of accumulating snow still appears possible for the City as colder air wraps around the developing system’s circulation. A slushy inch or two remains within the realm of possibility. In the past hour, Danbury has switched over to snow and snow has begun to mix into the rain in Newark and just west of Newark. Interior sections, many of which have been receiving snow at varying rates since yesterday remain in line for the largest accumulations.

Afterward, the probability of snowfall will be below to much below climatology for at least the next 7 days. Nevertheless, January 2018 will wind up in the record books as having seen above normal snowfall across the region.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/16: 26.5° (6.0° below normal)
1/20: 27.4°-28.3° (1/16 estimate: 27.3°-28.5°)
1/25: 29.6°-31.5° (1/16 estimate: 30.0°-32.2°)
1/31: 30.0°-32.7° (1/16 estimate: 30.3°-33.2°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 58% (1/16 estimate: 56%)

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN.

Snow totals for the City today, range 0"- 0"  lol.

My temp. now 36.3degs.

Month to date is -6.0 and should be -2.0 by the 25th., so remainder of month would need to be +6.5 to get to NORMAL.

 

[bluewave]

January 1-15 continued our run of weather extremes which have become synonymous with the 2010's. The new first for this time period was the cold and warm extremes combined with the record breaking blizzard near 950 mb. While this was only the 7th time that NYC recorded 10 or more days with highs below freezing, it was a first with a 60 degree+ high. This also differs from the previous years in that the second half of January didn't have such a prominent temperature rise or thaw.

NYC Jan 1-15

Year......# highs below 32......high temperature.....average temp for whole month 

2018.....10.....61......26.5....large rise expected by 1-31

1981.....11.....37......26.3

1977.....11.....41......22.1

1970....11......36......25.1

1968....10......39......26.7

1893....11......52.....23.7

1877.....10.....45.....27.7

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN.

Snow totals for the City today, range 0"- 0"  lol.

My temp. now 36.3degs.

Month to date is -6.0 and should be -2.0 by the 25th., so remainder of month would need to be +6.5 to get to NORMAL.

 

0”???? Miami?

 

[qg_omega]

On 1/16/2018 at 6:27 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Much of the region has received snowfall amounts in excess of the normal figure for all of January. This evening into tomorrow, a system will likely bring additional snow to much of the region.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/15: 26.2° (6.3° below normal; 1/15 estimate: 26.2°-26.4°)
1/20: 27.3°-28.5° (1/15 estimate: 27.1°-28.6°)
1/25: 30.0°-32.2° (1/15 estimate: 29.7°-32.1°)
1/31: 30.3°-33.2°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 56% (1/15 estimate: 58%)

In contrast to the poor run-to-run consistency with the ECMWF, GGEM, and NAM, the GFS has displayed good run-to-run continuity over the past 24-36 hours. The 1/16 0z NAM moved toward the GFS. However, the 1/16 0z RGEM departed from its earlier solutions in shifting the area of accumulating snow to the north of its prior runs.

New York City and nearby suburbs will receive a light measurable snowfall of 1"-2". Similar snowfall amounts are likely from Newark eastward across most of Nassau County. There remains a low probability that New York City and adjacent areas could pick up 3" or more snow. The latest 3 km NAM shows more than 3" for New York City. Only about a 25-mile shift to the south and east would bring a moderate snowfall into parts of New York City. East of Nassau County, there could be a coating to up to 1" of snow.

From the Bronx into southern Westchester County and along the Connecticut coastline, a general 2"-4" snowfall appears likely. Locations picking up 2"-4" will include Bridgeport, Harrison, Rye, and White Plains. Interior sections running from northwestern New Jersey north and east into much of New England (except for the Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts shorelines) could pick up a general 4"-8" snow. Those locations will include Boston, Carmel, Danbury, Hartford, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, Waterbury, West Milford, and Worcester.

With hints that the current La Niña is weakening and the likelihood that the MJO will move beyond Phase 7 in early February, I believe that the EPO- will rebuild and expand poleward leading to a renewed AO- and possibly some deep AO blocking. So, at least at this point in time, my thinking that February will be snowier than normal has not changed. The possibility of a colder than normal February also remains on the table.

Ugly bust for the NWS, White Plains received an inch at best.  Best snows ran from NW NJ (with elevation) to POU.

[doncat]

Since the cold pattern set in on 12/26...Station mean temp at about 22.5 degrees for the 23 day period...pretty impressive.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

13 degree difference between mmu and pou cold air to our west

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

2 hours ago, Bluesnow said:

Miller B snow potential early next week for interior maybe?  North and west of rat. 84 while the rest of us torch till last few days of January.

Way too zonal, rain for with some back end white rain..maybe 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Take a break for 10 to 15 days, this break is real but the pattern WILL reload in early Feb.

Winters 1st half was a good one and this upcoming period is just halftime.

See you all in 10 to 15 days 

[mattinpa]

18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Take a break for 10 to 15 days, this break is real but the pattern WILL reload in early Feb.

Winters 1st half was a good one and this upcoming period is just halftime.

See you all in 10 to 15 days 

Yes, and aren't many of the 10-15 days still in the 40s? That's not very much above normal.

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 16 here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is -5.9degs.  Should be -2.3degs. by the 26th.  Last 6 days would need to be +10degs. to get to NORMAL.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday’s snowfall has likely marked the last measurable snowfall for a large part of the region for at least the next 7 days. However, the pause in snowfall does not mark the end of winter.

The latest PDO data has become available. The PDO rose to +0.50 in December. Since 1950, 72% of cases where the December PDO > 0 led to a January-February PDO average > 0 and 90% of cases where the December PDO was +0.25 were followed by a January-February PDO average > 0. As a result, this data suggests that winter 2017-18 is very likely to wind up being a La Niña-PDO+ winter.

La Niña-PDO+ winters tend to be much snowier than La Niña-PDO- winters. Mean and median seasonal snowfall figures for the former category are 40.0” and 35.0”. The respective figures for the latter category are 20.1” and 15.9”. 60% of the five La Niña-PDO+ winters saw 30” or more seasonal snowfall and none had less than 20”. In contrast, just 13% of the sixteen La Niña-PDO- winters received 30” or more snow while 63% picked up less than 20”.

In addition, a positive PDO tends to favor a PNA+. This data suggests that the predominant winter pattern of a PNA+ is likely to resume following the modeled period of a PNA-.

Based on the long-range guidance hinting at a return of EPO-/AO- blocking, the PDO+ favoring a PNA+, and experience with winters where a December storm brought 4” or more snow from Philadelphia to Boston, winter 2017-18 appears well on track to be snowier to much snowier than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The odds appear to favor a snowy February.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/17: 26.6° (5.9° below normal)
1/20: 27.4°-28.0° (1/17 estimate: 27.4°-28.3°)
1/25: 29.2°-30.8° (1/17 estimate: 29.6°-31.5°)
1/31: 30.4°-32.9° (1/17 estimate: 30.0°-32.7°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 57% (1/17 estimate: 58%)

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Take a break for 10 to 15 days, this break is real but the pattern WILL reload in early Feb.

Winters 1st half was a good one and this upcoming period is just halftime.

See you all in 10 to 15 days 

It seems again that the thaw will be somewhat muted outside of the day or two ahead of the respective FROPAs.  On the other hand though I think the pattern change may be later than expected.  I was thinking 2/5 two weeks back but it may be closer to 2/15.  The -AO becomes evident once we get inside Day 8-9 on the ensembles and even the Op runs the last 7-10 days.  That monster SE ridge just doesn’t establish and most of the systems are tending to be weaker as well.  So you don’t get that 980mb low going into Minnesota or the Lakes.  I definitely think there may be another SE or possibly MA snow event around Day 7 depending how that system evolves and how much cold air push happens before the next moderation 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems again that the thaw will be somewhat muted outside of the day or two ahead of the respective FROPAs.  On the other hand though I think the pattern change may be later than expected.  I was thinking 2/5 two weeks back but it may be closer to 2/15.  The -AO becomes evident once we get inside Day 8-9 on the ensembles and even the Op runs the last 7-10 days.  That monster SE ridge just doesn’t establish and most of the systems are tending to be weaker as well.  So you don’t get that 980mb low going into Minnesota or the Lakes.  I definitely think there may be another SE or possibly MA snow event around Day 7 depending how that system evolves and how much cold air push happens before the next moderation 

I'm starting to wonder if better conditions will return too late for us to benefit. 2/15 is pretty late and if it gets delayed further than that then climo starts to play a big role. 

[qg_omega]

On 1/16/2018 at 10:34 PM, Isotherm said:

No real alterations to my thoughts. This week has demonstrated that a less than auspicious circulation will tend to make it exceedingly difficult to produce coastal snowfall of significance (or at all). At the end of the day, the 1/5-2/5 period of this winter will be remembered for being mostly snow-less along I-95 from NYC southward, in my opinion. The warmer than normal pattern is on track, and the somewhat delayed initiation does not implicate a shorter thaw period. The ephemeral pulse of blocking and concomitant favorability across the northern tier circa Jan 26th +/- a couple days is directly related to the wave-1 energy transfer into the stratosphere. Vertical propagation of rossby waves will decrease thereafter as wave 1/2 remain suppressed, with a subsequent neutralization of the NAM. Thus, the SPV will strengthen again toward the final days of January (ozone remains below normal now actually). By the end of January, frictional torque and soon after mountain torque should surge positive w/ a renewed jet extension and GWO circulation toward p4. There will be numerous days in the 40s and 50s over the course of the next few weeks. There is a chance, especially in the interior, for a wintry event late January; this is low probability for the coast, and if anything occurred, would likely be low-end. February then turns warm for the first week at least. I expect wave 2 to increase in early February resulting in more pressure on the vortex, and more wave 1 activity soon following. The eastward jet extension and propagating tropical forcing will eventually reconfigure the North Pacific circulation through rossby wave breaks such that we resume poleward EPO ridging, and more importantly, inclusion of the PNA domain, as we approach mid February. The AO will turn negative as well, possibly with some NAO support for the first time this winter, but that is more indeterminate. I am confident that the middle of February onward (second week, but probably mid/late in that week, the 10th +/- a few days) will feature another bout of favorability. This should produce the second window to which I referred pre-season, for a significant+ snow event on the East Coast. My winter outlook had that window as Feb 1-15, but I think a more accurate range is now Feb 8-22. At this point, I think the more conducive period could run at least 3 weeks. Prior to that initiation, we have at least 3 weeks of hostile circulation with significantly suppressed snow opportunities for the coast, better in the interior Northeast.

"At the end of the day, the 1/5-2/5 period of this winter will be remembered for being mostly snow-less along I-95 from NYC southward, in my opinion."

Excluding the historic snow for VA, NC, SC.  Parts of NC received a foot of snow yesterday.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

another beauty up here this AM

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

another beauty up here this AM

Yeah, epic. I'm out by New Paltz and it's just an absolute winter wonderland. There's more snow here than I got, but I also wonder if there was some brief icing component... the branches are all really glistening more than you'd expect. Either way, gorgeous. 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm starting to wonder if better conditions will return too late for us to benefit. 2/15 is pretty late and if it gets delayed further than that then climo starts to play a big role. 

Even if its delayed until March first, we are so close to climo (33% below) that we are still in decent shape. 

Remember only 4 marches in past 10 years did not deliver snow. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, epic. I'm out by New Paltz and it's just an absolute winter wonderland. There's more snow here than I got, but I also wonder if there was some brief icing component... the branches are all really glistening more than you'd expect. Either way, gorgeous. 

We had very fine flakes falling last night, alarmist a snowy mist, for about 2-3 hours... coated everything again, then we got to -4 so maybe that’s contributing 

[Brasiluvsnow]

A question from a NOVICE,,,,,I see that many here are breaking down the science and giving reasons as to why most likely there will be no cold air or snow for around 2 more weeks or so after these next few days BUT------we have seen all winter people posting their thoughts and breaking down the science saying "we will now get a break " only to see the cold air return much sooner than advertised. These things usually run in cycles and with the way THIS winter has gone I cannot see 2 weeks of a warm pattern and could easily see the entire conversation shift come Monday / Tuesday as its done this entire season. As I said not basing this on any science just off of what has happened thus far maybe Im way off base ?

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday’s snowfall has likely marked the last measurable snowfall for a large part of the region for at least the next 7 days. However, the pause in snowfall does not mark the end of winter.

The latest PDO data has become available. The PDO rose to +0.50 in December. Since 1950, 72% of cases where the December PDO > 0 led to a January-February PDO average > 0 and 90% of cases where the December PDO was +0.25 were followed by a January-February PDO average > 0. As a result, this data suggests that winter 2017-18 is very likely to wind up being a La Niña-PDO+ winter.

La Niña-PDO+ winters tend to be much snowier than La Niña-PDO- winters. Mean and median seasonal snowfall figures for the former category are 40.0” and 35.0”. The respective figures for the latter category are 20.1” and 15.9”. 60% of the five La Niña-PDO+ winters saw 30” or more seasonal snowfall and none had less than 20”. In contrast, just 13% of the sixteen La Niña-PDO- winters received 30” or more snow while 63% picked up less than 20”.

In addition, a positive PDO tends to favor a PNA+. This data suggests that the predominant winter pattern of a PNA+ is likely to resume following the modeled period of a PNA-.

Based on the long-range guidance hinting at a return of EPO-/AO- blocking, the PDO+ favoring a PNA+, and experience with winters where a December storm brought 4” or more snow from Philadelphia to Boston, winter 2017-18 appears well on track to be snowier to much snowier than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The odds appear to favor a snowy February.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

1/17: 26.6° (5.9° below normal)
1/20: 27.4°-28.0° (1/17 estimate: 27.4°-28.3°)
1/25: 29.2°-30.8° (1/17 estimate: 29.6°-31.5°)
1/31: 30.4°-32.9° (1/17 estimate: 30.0°-32.7°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 57% (1/17 estimate: 58%)

If only this February can be like Feb 2010

40 inches that month

[IrishRob17]

54 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

another beauty up here this AM

I hope that you tied or weighed down that grill after last years wind-grill disaster ;-)  Nice photo ,as JC said, a winter wonderland this morning for sure. 

[Juliancolton]

37 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I hope that you tied or weighed down that grill after last years wind-grill disaster ;-)  Nice photo ,as JC said, a winter wonderland this morning for sure. 

I'd go so far as to say prettiest bluebird day since the morning after the Halloween storm. I'll probably never top that one for aesthetics... 18" of dense snow balanced atop every last twig and leaf. Today is about as good as you'll get most seasons.