donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: The lighter to moderate snowfall in the immediate NYC Metro is currently being modeled by the 0Z EURO - so that should be used as guidance right now since it matches the pattern as discussed above.............. The Euro has really struggled lately. The ensembles and more consistent models may have a better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The Euro has really struggled lately. The ensembles and more consistent models may have a better handle. Yep. The Euro just caved to the other guidance (GFS, Ukie, Canadian) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 12:14 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: 2 days of a cutter induced 60 is a real possibility followed by another cold shot next week. I would add 5 degrees to all of these temps / which would still give you a real BN cold shot. Finally twice this year the full latitude ridge has paid off , so watch the backside of the departing trough next week Hey snow fool , I called for snow ? I called for a cutter and 2 days of 60. Apologize now , or they need to ice you for misstating my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 31degs., or 1deg. BN. Temp. right now 14.9degs. Month to date now -5.3degs. Should be -3.9 by the 22nd. Last 11 days would have to be > +7.4degs. to get to NORMAL for the month. More likely than the +9degs. previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The passage of a strong cold front yesterday morning, led to New York City’s and Newark’s experiencing a 30° or greater range in their daily temperature. That was the first such occurrence since January 13, 2017 in New York City and June 9, 2017 in Newark. For the day, New York City had a range of 39° (58°-19°), its biggest daily range since March 8, 2005 (39° range). Newark had a 43° range (61°-18°), its biggest daily range since April 27, 1990 (44° range). New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/13: 26.9° (5.7° below normal) 1/15: 26.1°-26.5° (1/13 estimate: 26.0°-26.8°) 1/20: 27.1°-28.9° (1/13 estimate: 26.3°-28.4°) 1/25: 29.1°-31.7° (1/13 estimate: 28.6°-31.4°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 59% (1/13 estimate: 61%) Finally, for the January 16-18 period, it still appears that New York City and nearby suburbs will receive a small measurable snowfall (perhaps around an inch +/- 0.5"). Interior sections running from northwestern New Jersey north and east into much of New England have the potential to pick up several inches of snow. Beyond that, the interrupted January thaw will likely resume beginning next weekend. Temperatures across much of the area could reach the upper 50s and even lower 60s by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yesterday saw a 58/17 split here, with a 13° reading this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Most positive PMM on record for the month of December. This pattern features very warm SST's off the Pacific Coast of Mexico along with strong forcing just west of the DL. It produces a very impressive blocking pattern along the West Coast of North America. An active MJO has also been a feature of this regime. In fact, the record MJO pulse in late October was an important part of this evolution. Models indicating that we will be in the milder MJO phases for later in January. Beyond this, there are some hints that the MJO may swing back into more favorable phases for snow and colder temperatures at some point in February. But patience going through the milder MJO phases first will be required. In any event, the Pacific has been producing some record extremes since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Made it down to 8 overnight. Currently 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Today is another gorgeous winter day. 21° at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is now -6.1degs. Should be just -2.7degs by the 23rd. Last 9 days of month will need to be +6.8degs. to end at NORMAL. Snow on Tues/Wed is 0"-5", with 2" the most likely for NYC. South Shore of Conn. is @WARNING Criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Current temp is 16 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yesterday was the 45th day of meteorological winter. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.605. Through the first half of meteorological winter, the AO has been negative on 60% of days. Its preliminary daily average was -0.237. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/14: 26.4° (6.1° below normal) 1/15: 26.2°-26.4° (1/14 estimate: 26.1°-26.5°) 1/20: 27.1°-28.6° (1/14 estimate: 27.1°-28.9°) 1/25: 29.7°-32.1° (1/14 estimate: 29.1°-31.7°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 58% (1/14 estimate: 59%) My thinking remains unchanged regarding the prospects of a measurable snowfall this week. It still appears very likely that New York City and nearby suburbs will receive a small measurable snowfall (perhaps around an inch +/- 0.5") during the January 16-18 period. Interior sections running from northwestern New Jersey north and east into much of New England (except for the Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts shorelines) could pick up several inches of snow. Some of those areas could see amounts near or above 4". Setting aside specific amounts, which still remain somewhat uncertain especially regarding the southern extent of the accumulating snowfall, the 1/15 0z and 6z GFS appeared to do quite well in illustrating the distribution of heaviest snowfall. Both the 0z and 6z RGEM were more aggressive with snowfall amounts in and around New York City and its adjacent suburbs. Should a second wave of low pressure develop close enough to the coastline, additional snowfall would be possible. The 0z GGEM showed this scenario, but it also was inconsistent with the other guidance in minimizing the impact of the clipper. Therefore, at least for now, I place little weight on that model. The ECMWF’s recent run-to-run inconsistency continues, with its shifting the area of accumulating snow about 50-75 miles north from its previous run. As it is also inconsistent with most of the other guidance, I’m also placing little weight on its solution, except with its axis of heaviest snow, which appears reasonable. Model differences will likely begin to be ironed out sometime between today’s 12z runs and the 1/16 0z runs. As it now appears possible that the pattern will feature an AO+/PNA+ (the PNA should go negative shortly after the snowfall), I took a look at the January 1950-2017 period for snowfalls during such a pattern. 84% of snow events in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas saw measurable snowfall in NYC; 71% saw 1" or more; 51% saw 2" or more; and, 29% saw 4" or more. The respective statistical probabilities were 85%, 75%, 61%, and 29%. So, the idea of a light snowfall in the NYC area remains more likely than no measurable snowfall during the timeframe in question. For NYC, there is a small prospect of 3" or more snow during the January 16-18 period given those probabilities and the 6z RGEM run. Looking ahead, next weekend could feature the start of a longer period of sustained warmer than normal readings across the Northeast. By next Monday, temperatures in the region could be reaching the upper 50s with some locations in New Jersey pushing or surpassing 60°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday was the 45th day of meteorological winter. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.605. Through the first half of meteorological winter, the AO has been negative on 60% of days. Its preliminary daily average was -0.237. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/14: 26.4° (6.1° below normal) 1/15: 26.2°-26.4° (1/14 estimate: 26.1°-26.5°) 1/20: 27.1°-28.6° (1/14 estimate: 27.1°-28.9°) 1/25: 29.7°-32.1° (1/14 estimate: 29.1°-31.7°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 58% (1/14 estimate: 59%) My thinking remains unchanged regarding the prospects of a measurable snowfall this week. It still appears very likely that New York City and nearby suburbs will receive a small measurable snowfall (perhaps around an inch +/- 0.5") during the January 16-18 period. Interior sections running from northwestern New Jersey north and east into much of New England (except for the Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts shorelines) could pick up several inches of snow. Some of those areas could see amounts near or above 4". Setting aside specific amounts, which still remain somewhat uncertain especially regarding the southern extent of the accumulating snowfall, the 1/15 0z and 6z GFS appeared to do quite well in illustrating the distribution of heaviest snowfall. Both the 0z and 6z RGEM were more aggressive with snowfall amounts in and around New York City and its adjacent suburbs. Should a second wave of low pressure develop close enough to the coastline, additional snowfall would be possible. The 0z GGEM showed this scenario, but it also was inconsistent with the other guidance in minimizing the impact of the clipper. Therefore, at least for now, I place little weight on that model. The ECMWF’s recent run-to-run inconsistency continues, with its shifting the area of accumulating snow about 50-75 miles north from its previous run. As it is also inconsistent with most of the other guidance, I’m also placing little weight on its solution, except with its axis of heaviest snow, which appears reasonable. Model differences will likely begin to be ironed out sometime between today’s 12z runs and the 1/16 0z runs. As it now appears possible that the pattern will feature an AO+/PNA+ (the PNA should go negative shortly after the snowfall), I took a look at the January 1950-2017 period for snowfalls during such a pattern. 84% of snow events in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas saw measurable snowfall in NYC; 71% saw 1" or more; 51% saw 2" or more; and, 29% saw 4" or more. The respective statistical probabilities were 85%, 75%, 61%, and 29%. So, the idea of a light snowfall in the NYC area remains more likely than no measurable snowfall during the timeframe in question. For NYC, there is a small prospect of 3" or more snow during the January 16-18 period given those probabilities and the 6z RGEM run. Looking ahead, next weekend could feature the start of a longer period of sustained warmer than normal readings across the Northeast. By next Monday, temperatures in the region could be reaching the upper 50s with some locations in New Jersey pushing or surpassing 60°. Looks like we will be going into a milder pattern with chances of snow especially at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like we will be going into a milder pattern with chances of snow especially at the end of the month. He doesn't mention that at all. Just the warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Looks like we will be going into a milder pattern with chances of snow especially at the end of the month. My guess is that at least through the 25th, there will be a below to much below normal climatological probability of measurable snowfall for the NYC area. Central and Upstate New York and central and northern New England will have better prospects. It's too soon to be confident about the remaining days of January. At least right now, I remain quite optimistic about a snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Latest EPS weeklies continue to be very steady. Milder +EPO/-PNA pattern runs into the first week of February as MJO shifts forcing west to around the Maritime Continent. Pattern change to colder -EPO/+PNA during the second week of February as MJO forcing moves back to just west of the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Latest EPS weeklies continue to be very steady. Milder +EPO/-PNA pattern runs into the first week of February as MJO shifts forcing west to around the Maritime Continent. Pattern change to colder -EPO/+PNA during the second week of February as MJO forcing moves back to just west of the DL. @bluewaveHow much confidence do you place that the forcing does indeed return to the areas West of the DL. I have read that it seems likely to a degree based on SSTs and pattern persistence. Even though I hear the forcing may not be as robust, it can still get very cold in mid Feb. and stormy as well. An additioanal player I wonder is the evolution of the strat and a possible 3 wave pattern, and even some who have suggested a minor warming event based on this early month's known precursor pattern. Appreciate your thoughts as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 PNA and AO are trending in the right direction at the end of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just returned after 5 days in Vermont and was very surprised to find snow still on my property. I would assume that being so close to the frozen bay must have kept temps much colder then the rest of the regoin on Friday. There is still natural snow cover here not just piles. This was not the case until south of sunrise highway. Very interesting micro climate effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Next 8 days' average up to 38degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is -6.3degs. Should be just -2degs. by the 24th. Remainder of month would then need to be +6degs. to finish at NORMAL. Snow for NYC is still 0"-5", with 3" the most likely. No one should get more than 8" in the coverage area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Much of the region has received snowfall amounts in excess of the normal figure for all of January. This evening into tomorrow, a system will likely bring additional snow to much of the region. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/15: 26.2° (6.3° below normal; 1/15 estimate: 26.2°-26.4°) 1/20: 27.3°-28.5° (1/15 estimate: 27.1°-28.6°) 1/25: 30.0°-32.2° (1/15 estimate: 29.7°-32.1°) 1/31: 30.3°-33.2° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 56% (1/15 estimate: 58%) In contrast to the poor run-to-run consistency with the ECMWF, GGEM, and NAM, the GFS has displayed good run-to-run continuity over the past 24-36 hours. The 1/16 0z NAM moved toward the GFS. However, the 1/16 0z RGEM departed from its earlier solutions in shifting the area of accumulating snow to the north of its prior runs. New York City and nearby suburbs will receive a light measurable snowfall of 1"-2". Similar snowfall amounts are likely from Newark eastward across most of Nassau County. There remains a low probability that New York City and adjacent areas could pick up 3" or more snow. The latest 3 km NAM shows more than 3" for New York City. Only about a 25-mile shift to the south and east would bring a moderate snowfall into parts of New York City. East of Nassau County, there could be a coating to up to 1" of snow. From the Bronx into southern Westchester County and along the Connecticut coastline, a general 2"-4" snowfall appears likely. Locations picking up 2"-4" will include Bridgeport, Harrison, Rye, and White Plains. Interior sections running from northwestern New Jersey north and east into much of New England (except for the Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts shorelines) could pick up a general 4"-8" snow. Those locations will include Boston, Carmel, Danbury, Hartford, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, Waterbury, West Milford, and Worcester. With hints that the current La Niña is weakening and the likelihood that the MJO will move beyond Phase 7 in early February, I believe that the EPO- will rebuild and expand poleward leading to a renewed AO- and possibly some deep AO blocking. So, at least at this point in time, my thinking that February will be snowier than normal has not changed. The possibility of a colder than normal February also remains on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 hours ago, frd said: @bluewaveHow much confidence do you place that the forcing does indeed return to the areas West of the DL. I have read that it seems likely to a degree based on SSTs and pattern persistence. Even though I hear the forcing may not be as robust, it can still get very cold in mid Feb. and stormy as well. An additioanal player I wonder is the evolution of the strat and a possible 3 wave pattern, and even some who have suggested a minor warming event based on this early month's known precursor pattern. Appreciate your thoughts as always. The MJO moving in that direction helps increase confidence of a temperature swing back to colder and eventually snowier after the first week of February. The EPS weekly free PNA and EPO charts show the evolution below. But first we have to go through the milder +EPO/-PNA in order to get back to the colder -EPO/+PNA. http://wx.graphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Who cares how much snow we get when it will all be gone by Friday or so. We will be lucky too if Jan ends BN, Gonna be close. Looks as warm as ever for the next 16 days. Maybe 3BN and the rest AN. Maybe multiple double digit days AN. Ugly run, that 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Who cares how much snow we get when it will all be gone by Friday or so. We will be lucky to if Jan ends BN, Gonna be close. Looks as warm as ever for the next 16 days. Maybe 3BN and the rest AN. Maybe multiple double digit days AN. Ugly run, that 06Z GFS It’s been well signaled for quite a while. None of us should be surprised when warm periods overperform. No reason to rain on tonight’s snow parade for those get snow. Can’t do anything about what comes next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 PNA and AO look good after this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Who cares how much snow we get when it will all be gone by Friday or so. We will be lucky to if Jan ends BN, Gonna be close. Looks as warm as ever for the next 16 days. Maybe 3BN and the rest AN. Maybe multiple double digit days AN. Ugly run, that 06Z GFS Yes the long range forecasts are so reliable,especially the the gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wasn’t expecting sunshine and 40’s today. I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Wasn’t expecting sunshine and 40’s today. I’ll take it. It'll be much warmer than that in a few days. Mostly 40s and 50s until February. Can't wait, cold weather does nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Well cold weather kind of keeps certain bugs from warmer climates under control in prolonged cold periods plus protects lobsters from warming waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It'll be much warmer than that in a few days. Mostly 40s and 50s until February. Can't wait, cold weather does nothing. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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