JerseyWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 @NJwx85, which model did you post earlier that looked similar to this Nexrad depiction? I thought it was the HRRR that had that stripe through Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Down to 50 degrees from a high of 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 All my snow has melted Car had a nice wash today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Can attest to the copious amount of rain. I'm in the yellow stripe of Morris County. Continual down pours. Just got soaked taking out the dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Can attest to the copious amount of rain. I'm in the yellow stripe of Morris County. Continual down pours. Just got soaked taking out the dogs. All of the local PWS's are approaching 2.00" here. Remarkable deluge and warmth. It actually felt hot and humid today. Newest version: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: All of the local PWS's are approaching 2.00" here. Remarkable deluge and warmth. It actually felt hot and humid today. Newest version: Less than a quarter of that 20 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Less than a quarter of that 20 miles away Definitely a sharp cutoff. From what I can see, that large swath of 1"+ begins just west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Got up to 62 here today...record high is 66 set last year. Temp dropped to 51 earlier, now back at 55°. Rainfall 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Still 61 here. Tomorrow at this time it should be upper teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 16 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well since we've hit 70 in the entire month of January maybe three times? in 150 years, Thank God there's no sun. Those are records I'd rather not break. 6 hours ago, Snowshack said: 63f at Albany / 24f buffalo this hour. If only the front waited a couple more hours. Albany had a 63/50 split on the day until between 9 and 10pm when the temp dropped from 58 to 44. They also spent 8 hours in the 60s today. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KALB.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Down to 40° here.. 1.61" so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 38.8° and dropping steadily. Which will come first 32° or the end of the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Next 8 days back to 3degs.BN, at 29degs. Used 50/22 for today. GFS Weeklies look colder for last 5 days of Jan. than they did, but Feb. still looks warm. Month to date now -6.7degs. Should be -5.2degs. by the 21st. Last 11 days of Jan. are still going to have to be >+9degs., to get to NOR. for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Temperature roller coaster ride continues. Rapidly falling temperatures today with colder temperatures again this week. Another warm up begins next weekend. This was one of the only times Newark had a -22 and a +22 temperature departure in the same week during January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 38.8° and dropping steadily. Which will come first 32° or the end of the precip? I’ll take the end of the precip for $1000 Alex. At least here, down to 33 now, precipitation gone, winds howling. A pretty wild 24 hours or so of weather it’s been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Was at 54 at 5:00 am, with drizzle. Just came in from taking the dogs out. Winds are howling, temp is down to 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885) Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980) Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017) Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017) Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980) Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980) Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017) Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913) Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995) New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017) Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980) Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017) Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013) Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932) Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal) 1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°) 1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°) 1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885) Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980) Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017) Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017) Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980) Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980) Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017) Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913) Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995) New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017) Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980) Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017) Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013) Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932) Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal) 1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°) 1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°) 1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase. The lighter to moderate snowfall in the immediate NYC Metro is currently being modeled by the 0Z EURO - so that should be used as guidance right now since it matches the pattern as discussed above.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Yup snowing pretty hard out there right now. Went from tiny flakes just a few minutes ago to quite large now. Everything is still soaked from the torrential rains and snowmelt yesterday and overnight and it's just hitting 32* now and everything is starting to freeze up from the ground up because it's still frozen under the surface layer of mud. Ooooh gonna be a fun day of driving and college dorm shopping then packing the car to move the kids into the dorm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Not very often where Boston area is still near 60 and nyc Metro is at or below freezing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Current temp down to 29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday, the region rode the temperature roller coaster to the low 60s. Today, the roller coaster will be plunging into the 20s and even teens by day’s end. Already, the temperature has fallen sharply in New York City and Newark. From 6 am to 7 am, the temperature fell from 57° to 44° at Central Park and from 61° to 43° at Newark. Numerous cities set or tied record high temperatures yesterday. Those cities included: Albany: 63° (old record: 57°, 1885) Bangor: 51° (tied record from 1980) Binghamton: 60° (old record: 51°, 2017) Bridgeport: 55° (tied record from 2017) Burlington: 61° (old record: 55°, 1980) Caribou: 51° (old record: 47°, 1980) Danbury: 61° (tied record from 2017) Hartford: 60° (old record: 57°, 1913) Islip: 58° (tied record from 1995) New Haven: 54° (old record: 52°, 2017) Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 58°, 1980) Providence: 62° (old record: 60°, 2017) Rochester: 60° (old record: 58°, 2013) Syracuse: 61° (old record: 57°, 1932) Worcester: 59°, (old record: 57°, 2017) New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/12: 26.0° (6.7° below normal) 1/15: 26.0°-26.8° (1/12 estimate: 25.9°-27.1°) 1/20: 26.3°-28.4° (1/12 estimate: 26.6°-29.0°) 1/25: 28.6°-31.4° (1/12 estimate: 28.1°-31.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/12 estimate: 61%) The pattern continues to look favorable for a measurable snow event during the January 14-18 period, with the guidance suggesting a possible candidate system for the January 16-18 timeframe. However, at present, the guidance generally suggests that both the AO and PNA will be negative. Such an outcome favors smaller snowfall amounts in and around New York City. Larger amounts are possible in interior sections north and eastward across New England. Since 1950, the largest AO-/PNA- January snowfall in New York City was 9.1" (January 11-13, 2011). During January 1950-2017, 83% of AO-/PNA- storms brought measurable snowfall, 60% brought 1" or more snow, and 47% brought 2" or more, and 20% brought 4" or more. The statistically-implied percentages are 79%, 67%, 52%, and 23% respectively. Therefore, at least for New York City, the pattern favors a light accumulation. There remains some chance of a moderate accumulation of snow. Were the PNA to remain positive, prospects for a larger event along the coast would increase. Transition period for the PNA Storms usually happen during those times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Largest hourly temp drop this morning was 16° between 6-7 am, when temp went from 57-41°. Currently 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 19 hours ago, bluewave said: What a mess. More water rescues in the same general area this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Last 6 hours: 52, 54, 61, 43, 35, 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 brutal out there.. 21° w/ a vicious wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, snywx said: brutal out there.. 21° w/ a vicious wind Yeah, brutal is a good word for it. A Frozen Car Door Advisory has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Using nearby PWS's as a reference, the event total here is right around 2.50", and .50" of that came after midnight when some heavy downpours came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Can you spot the cold front?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, doncat said: Can you spot the cold front?.... Me too- except not as dramatic of a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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