Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Mild day out there, current temp 58 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big weather swings and extremes continue. This is currently the strongest SE ridge or WAR on record for the month of January on the OKX sounding. Good observation. With some colder air trapped near surface and no sun, even the fact that 850mb. T's are near a record too at 10C, the 2M is not going to record levels of 70degs. I would not even think of checking for these numbers while stuck here in a dense fog at a variable T of 48-52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Radar looks juiced with a nice convective band over SE NY, interior NJ and down through the mid-atlantic. Latest HRRR agrees that main focus will be West of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Good observation. With some colder air trapped near surface and no sun, even the fact that 850mb. T's are near a record too at 10C, the 2M is not going to record levels of 70degs. I would not even think of checking for these numbers while stuck here in a dense fog at a variable T of 48-52. Stations around the area are already near 60 degrees with clouds, rain, and fog. If we had something resembling full sun today, then we would have made a run on 70 degrees. That Jan 07 record of 72 degrees in NYC would have been in play especially if we were starting with bare ground instead of melting snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Stations around the area are already near 60 degrees with clouds, rain, and fog. If we had something resembling full sun today, then we would have made a run on 70 degrees. More impressive is how far North the warm air is stretching. Typically these get hung up near SNE, however Albany and Boston should both reach lower 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Stations around the area are already near 60 degrees with clouds, rain, and fog. If we had something resembling full sun today, then we would have made a run on 70 degrees. Well since we've hit 70 in the entire month of January maybe three times? in 150 years, Thank God there's no sun. Those are records I'd rather not break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Plenty of elevated instability and even some shear to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: More impressive is how far North the warm air is stretching. Typically these get hung up near SNE, however Albany and Boston should both reach lower 60's. 60+ degree temperature swing since last weekend when were near or below 0 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well since we've hit 70 in the entire month of January maybe three times? in 150 years, Thank God there's no sun. Those are records I'd rather not break. If the latest HRRR is correct, we will at least break 65 over much of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: More impressive is how far North the warm air is stretching. Typically these get hung up near SNE, however Albany and Boston should both reach lower 60's. It’s 56 all the up in Malone NY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, IrishRob17 said: It’s 56 all the up in Malone NY! It's currently 66 in Richmond, VA and 69 in Orlando, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 60 degree dewpoints for January showing up now. Somerville LGT RAIN 60 60 100 MISG 29.91F FOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Next four hours, looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: 60 degree dewpoints for January showing up now. Somerville LGT RAIN 60 60 100 MISG 29.91F FOG Amazing abundance of deep moisture surging Northward from the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Hard to remember the last time we saw these PWAT's in mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 59 degrees on Staten Island and 45 at Breezy Point (western tip of the Rockaways) with the southerly wind. Staten Island N/A 59 57 94 S15 N/A Breezy Point N/A 45 N/A N/A S17G23 N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 there is likely to be a january and potential meteorological winter record pwat at okx at 00z, as long as convection doesn't interfere with the balloon launch. mhx set their january record pwat at 12z - 1.77". the january record at okx is 1.59" and the dec-feb record is 1.66" on dec 12 as shown below. most guidance peaks at 1.65-1.70" today/tonight. the upper low east of florida got squashed by that monster ridge, but numerous vorts have shot out of it and are headed our way this afternoon in collocation with that moisture plume njwx85 showed. radar imagery from eastern va to nc shows several of these circulations. there will almost certainly be tropical downpours this afternoon and evening throughout the tri-state...city included. instability has two maxima - one this afternoon/evening and a more impressive one in the pre-dawn hours of saturday. i think that's the best shot for lightning, tho the risk is non-zero ~2-7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Amazing abundance of deep moisture surging Northward from the Caribbean In addition to the record level PWAT's, the January dewpoint record at OKX is 58 degrees. Probably closer to 60 at EWR. The record tropical moisture feed is coming around the record ridge to our east. So very heavy downpour potential combined with the snowmelt will raise the flood risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I’m at 2k in the greens of southern Vermont and it’s well into the 50s. There was an epic snow pack around 2 feet and it’s dissapearing before my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m at 2k in the greens of southern Vermont and it’s well into the 50s. There was an epic snow pack around 2 feet and it’s dissapearing before my eyes. Watch out for the ice jam potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 What a roller-coaster coming up...from 60's today, to upper 20's by tomorrow afternoon, to close to 10° by Sunday am.... 59 here currently...was still 40° at 4am, then rose 10° in 15 minutes shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Temp up to 62 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This extreme to record warmth around the 2nd week of January has become a thing here since 2012. Pretty impressive continuation of the pattern this year considering the 2nd coldest first week of January on record. Newark high temperatures: 1-12-18....62 so far 1-12-17....67R 1-13-17....61 1-10-16....65R 1-11-14...61 1-14-13..58 1-7-12...64R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A flash flood watch is needed West of the Hudson River. The latest HRRR is even more robust with this fire hose of convection and appears to be correct given radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It's currently 66 in Richmond, VA and 69 in Orlando, FL. And currently 61/61 at KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: Watch out for the ice jam potential. Up this way too in Orange County. Most rivers and creeks are frozen over.. With the rapid snowmelt and heavy rains on the way could make it rather dicey ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Up this way too in Orange County. Most rivers and creeks are frozen over.. With the rapid snowmelt and heavy rains on the way could make it rather dicey ... The Wallkill was frozen solid still at my house this morning, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A flash flood watch is needed West of the Hudson River. The latest HRRR is even more robust with this fire hose of convection and appears to be correct given radar trends. The Delaware River could have some ice jam issues later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: The Wallkill was frozen solid still at my house this morning, we shall see... I noticed the wallkill River from 84 the other day. Haven't seen that much ice for a couple of years. With the frozen ground,the water has nowhere to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: The Delaware River could have some ice jam issues later. I was wondering about that but haven't had time to look into it with this system. I know ice jams have done some serious damage in the Port Jervis area in the past. http://www.nytimes.com/1981/02/13/nyregion/delaware-floods-port-jervis-area-and-3000-flee.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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