Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 what's been better this year...Euro MJO forecast or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Guys , these are free EURO maps that should not be blocked..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: what's been better this year...Euro MJO forecast or GFS? Good question. The Euro has been better every year but the GFS was better earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Good question. The Euro has been better every year but the GFS was better earlier this year. I’m not sure other than a few random blips if I’ve seen the GFS get the MJO forecast right over any long stretch of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The NAM would likely be a mega rainstorm here. Comes in two waves, the first dropping 1"+ in some spots. The jet maximum on the NAM is over Western VA and Western NC, West of the Euro, which will allow the SLP to develop further Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: what's been better this year...Euro MJO forecast or GFS? The GFS had the big miss later in December when it was looping back into a mild phase first. So the Euro did better with the cold and snow long range since it had the MJO correctly going through 8 before the GFS. The Euro generally does better on the MJO forecasts. But it's weakness sometimes is going back into COD too soon at longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: even here, we lost a good 3-4 inches today. I bet we are down to 4-5 inches before we even see a drop of rain. Just piles will remain by late Saturday. The side of our property exposed to sun for most of the day really took a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM would likely be a mega rainstorm here. Comes in two waves, the first dropping 1"+ in some spots. The jet maximum on the NAM is over Western VA and Western NC, West of the Euro, which will allow the SLP to develop further Southwest. Verbatim, the NAM is tracking the low so far west on Saturday, that Erie, PA would go to all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, the NAM is tracking the low so far west on Saturday, that Erie, PA would go to all rain Well it's what those of us wishing for mild are rooting for to be correct. Would be an impactful system too with strong winds and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, the NAM is tracking the low so far west on Saturday, that Erie, PA would go to all rain these things like to run to BUF. Earlier depictions of it over Scranton seemed odd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 All rivers in Northern NJ are frozen; I was in Freehold before and the Raritan in New Brunswick has spots of open water. Heavy rain, should be fun. Maybe even some ice damming like they get upstate when the Hudson thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Gfs says what pattern change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs says what pattern change lol Its still going to be average warm compared to for the northern tier of the country from 1/18 or so for about a week or two. The -AO may dum it down somewhat but the GFS has been trying the last 2-3 days to bring the -EPO back Day 14-16 and it generally gets pushed back. Its probably coming back but its being rushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs says what pattern change lol So how long is the thaw? Two weeks brings us close to Feb, a short month with a short window, when we've had some big storms, and also where its just been dull and mild. I believe, statistically, when it snows significantly in dec we usually do well the rest of the winter with snow, but I think all bets are off anymore. PB seems to think the warmup is transient ( a good bet in any winter really ) so I tend to take that seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So how long is the thaw? Two weeks brings us close to Feb, a short month with a short window, when we've had some big storms, and also where its just been dull and mild. I believe, statistically, when it snows significantly in dec we usually do well the rest of the winter with snow, but I think all bets are off anymore. PB seems to think the warmup is transient ( a good bet in any winter really ) so I tend to take that seriously. 3 AN + days this weekend ( and it's going to be warm ) followed by a day 6 to 10 BN period and then the fight starts I think it's 10 to 14 days of plus 2/3 so it's AN but it may not be as warm as it could be for a while because of HP funneling down on the backside of a cutter or 2 That said , Canada stays cold and HP is pressing , don't be surprised if the wavelengths shorten and you snow at any point in that AN period Then I believe the trough will be back in early February Thsts my best stab at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: 3 AN + days this weekend ( and it's going to be warm ) followed by a day 6 to 10 BN period and then the fight starts I think it's 10 to 14 days of plus 2/3 so it's AN but it may not be as warm as it could be for a while because of HP funneling down on the backside of a cutter or 2 That said , Canada stays cold and HP is pressing , don't be surprised if the wavelengths shorten and you snow at any point in that AN period Then I believe the trough will be back in early February Thsts my best stab at it Thanks, I'll be here watching, like all of you. Learned a lot here over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Next 8 days' average down a little to 36degs., or 3degs. AN. A period of 78 hours of temps. above 32degs. continuously will start shortly, followed by 120 hours below 32degs., contnuously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Southern Westchester to western Queens this morning. 20-> 33. Wow! Temp in Queens has since dropped closer to 30 as we approach sunrise. But that is a huge swing with snow on ground and clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Yesterday saw the temperature top out at 44° in Central Park. That was the warmest reading in New York City since December 23, 2017 when the maximum reading was 48°. Even warmer readings lie ahead later this week. The region is now in the early stages of a January thaw that will occasinally be interrupted by transient cold shots courtesy of a frequently negative AO. There remains a possibility that the right timing for storms could provide at least opportunities for some snowfall. Some of the guidance has been indicating the possibility of a snowfall for the January 16-18 timeframe. 70% of the listed objective analogs centered around 1/17 featured a snowfall within 10 days of the date while 30% had a snowfall of 4" or more. Those three were: 1/26/1952, 1/18/1978, and 1/21/2001. The 0z ECMWF backed off the idea of a snowfall, but the 0z GFS and GGEM retained it, though they differed on the timing. Given that such an event is a week away, much can still change. At least for now, there's a window of opportunity for a possible snowfall. The 1/10 6z GFS MOS forecasts a low temperature of 53° on Friday. The record high minimum temperature for January 12 is 47°, which was set just last year. The forecast high is 63°, but that would fall short of the daily record of 66°, which was also set in 2017 NYC’s Average Temperature Through: 1/9: 19.5° (13.4° below normal) 1/10: 21.0°-21.4° (1/9 estimate: 20.8°-21.4°) 1/15: 26.5°-28.5° (1/9 estimate: 25.7°-28.1°) 1/20: 27.1°-30.1° (1/9 estimate: 26.7°-30.0°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 61% (1/9 estimate: 55%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Southern Westchester to western Queens this morning. 20-> 33. Wow! Temp in Queens has since dropped closer to 30 as we approach sunrise. But that is a huge swing with snow on ground and clear skies Radiated down to 19° here this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, doncat said: Radiated down to 19° here this am. 11.6F low here thanks to the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 From December 1 through today, the AO has generally been negative while the PNA and NAO have been positive on an overwhelming share of days. December 1-January 10 Statistics: AO: Negative 59% of days NAO: Positive 88% of days PNA: Positive 90% of days Over the next two weeks, the AO is forecast to remain generally negative while the positive PNA is forecast to give way to a negative PNA. The semi-permanent positive wintertime state of the NAO is forecast to continue. Initially, this means that the January thaw that is now underway will be interrupted by transient intrusions of cold air. One such intrusion is forecast for this weekend into early/middle of next week. During such intrusions, the opportunity for some snow would exist if storminess coincides with the presence of cold air. The 12z GGEM highlights this possibility in the January 16-18 timeframe. I continue to suspect that the closing days of the January thaw could feature the most sustained warm anomalies and the warmest 5- and 7-day period associated with the thaw. Given some of the 500 mb forecasts on the ensembles, I could see the AO going positive for a time in the January 20-25 timeframe, even as the majority of ensemble members keep the AO negative. Such an outcome would increase prospects for above to possibly much above normal readings during the closing days of the thaw. During the January 20-30, 1981-2010 base period, the mean temperature for a PNA of -0.75 or below/AO+ is 39.6° vs. 31.9° for climatology. Before then, Friday should see the warmest day so far in 2018. The GEFS indicate warm anomalies of between 2.0σ and 2.5σ. That would translate into a low temperature between 47° and 52° for Friday and a high temperature between 59° and 64° at Central Park. At 2.75σ, the respective minimum and maximum temperatures would be 55° and 67°. I don’t believe the temperature will rise to quite that level, but the guidance has grown a little more aggressive in recent days, so I mention it. Select record high minimum and maximum temperatures for January 12 are as follows: BDR: 42°, 2017; 55°, 2017 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 45°-58°) ISP: 47°, 2017; 58°, 1995 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 46°-57°) NYC: …JFK: 46°, 2017; 61° 2017 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 44°-57°) …LGA: 48°, 2017; 68°, 2017 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 49°-59°) …NYC: 47°, 2017; 66°, 2017 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 51°-63°) EWR: 46°, 2017; 67°, 2017 (1/10 12z GFS MOS: 49°-63°) Finally, despite this forecast warmth, January 2018 still has, under conservative assumptions, an approximately 60% probability of having a cold monthly anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 As per 12z euro, Big temp drop during morning hours on Sat and we don't get much above freezing thru next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, doncat said: As per 12z euro, Big temp drop during morning hours on Sat and we don't get much above freezing thru next Thursday. This will be up being one of the the most impressive temperature roller coasters seen during the winter. We started with the 2nd coldest Jan 1-7 on record around the area. Temps especially away from the ocean may top 60 degrees on Friday. We then see a drop back to colder..but not nearly as cold as we just experienced. After that cool down, temps rebound back up again later in the month. So there is probably another cool down waiting for us sometime in February to round things out. This has been non-stop since later in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will be up being one of the the most impressive temperature roller coasters seen during the winter. We started with the 2nd coldest Jan 1-7 on record around the area. Temps especially away from the ocean may top 60 degrees on Friday. We then see a drop back to colder..but not nearly as cold as we just experienced. After that cool down, temps rebound back up again later in the month. So there is probably another cool down waiting for us sometime in February to round things out. This has been non-stop since later in August. Yeah this trend has been occuring since late Summer. It's certainly different from what we've experienced in the past not too long ago, where AN temps ruled and occasionally we mixed in a BN stretch. Now it seems we have been getting mostly normal or BN temps with transient warm surges, which you alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah this trend has been occuring since late Summer. It's certainly different from what we've experienced in the past not too long ago, where AN temps ruled and occasionally we mixed in a BN stretch. Now it seems we have been getting mostly normal or BN temps with transient warm surges, which you alluded to. The back and forth battle has been very impressive. One of the coldest starts to September followed by record warmth through October. First record lows for NYC in Nov since 1970's and then a moderation later in Nov. Mild first week of Dec...colder second...milder 3rd...cold ending. 2nd coldest ever start to January and now areas away from the Ocean on Friday can rebound above 60. Probably a high for the day on Saturday after midnight followed by rapidly falling temps during the rest of the day into the night. Colder temps lingering into later next week before a rebound in temps for the late part of January. Then we wait for a return to colder at some point in February. The one common denominator of all the cold periods since December is that they have all produced snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Days 4 thru 12 with a snowstorm at day 7. Terrible way to run a warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The back and forth battle has been very impressive. One of the coldest starts to September followed by record warmth through October. First record lows for NYC in Nov since 1970's and then a moderation later in Nov. Mild first week of Dec...colder second...milder 3rd...cold ending. 2nd coldest ever start to January and now areas away from the Ocean on Friday can rebound above 60. Probably a high for the day on Saturday after midnight followed by rapidly falling temps during the rest of the day into the night. Colder temps lingering into later next week before a rebound in temps for the late part of January. Then we wait for a return to colder at some point in February. The one common denominator of all the cold periods since December is that they have all produced snowfall. Certainly has been a battle between temps. The question is, can February, which is our snowiest month, produce in the snow department? Like you've said, it always seems to find a way to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 We could see a 40+ degree temp drop within a day, models are more aggressive with the cold air. I like our chances next week, a light to moderate event is possible. If that PNA can hold on a bit longer then something more substantial is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Next 8 days to average NOR. or just AN @34degs. CMC/GFS show good agreement for next 10 days on Temps/Precip. 4" Snow on Jan. 16, both ways. Big warmup looks more choppy too. Month to date is now -11.6degs., and by the 19th. should be -6 or -7 degs. So last 13 days would need to be about +9degs. to have the month end at just normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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