Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 37 already. Low to maybe mid 40s should be doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 37 already. Low to maybe mid 40s should be doable Yeah I think we have an overpreformer incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I think we have an overpreformer incoming Hoping we can get some more melt than forecast next few days before the mildest temps and heaviest rain potential arrives later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 All great streaks come to an end. That one was impressive / Historic actually. Enjoy the warm up - we earned it. 1 last 5 day shot before the real break starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 41° here, forecast was 39°. Lots of melting, thankfully. I hate old snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 There's going to be a ton of over performing days, 60+ looking more and more likely end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cfa said: 41° here, forecast was 39°. Lots of melting, thankfully. I hate old snow. Hopefully, they corrected the practices out there which lead to the March 2015 rapid snow melt flood. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/03/11/rapid-snow-melt-leaves-homes-flooded-on-long-island/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: 41° here, forecast was 39°. Lots of melting, thankfully. I hate old snow. Well, the best solution to that is not to melt it but to add fresh new snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 40° here currently. After two weeks, the below 32° streak has been shattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's going to be a ton of over performing days, 60+ looking more and more likely end of the week. No model shows 60+. Show me some support and than I'll believe it warm camper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Definitely could see a snow threat materialize next week, they always seem to come before a pattern shift. Nice PNA spike, AO/NAO marginally negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: No model shows 60+. Show me some support and than I'll believe it warm camper Not in NYC, but most of NJ probably reaches 60 or gets close on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 40 here. It’s feels damn good out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 At Noon, the thermometer in Central Park was 42°. That's NYC's first 40° reading since December 24, 2017 and its warmest temperature since December 23 when the temperature reached 48°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely could see a snow threat materialize next week, they always seem to come before a pattern shift. Nice PNA spike, AO/NAO marginally negative. We have transient blocking on the 12z GFS so something may materalize around the 17th , after that it’s very warm for about a week. The GFS wants to bring back the +PNA at the end of the run and shows a huge trough In the east. To be honest this warm up is going to feel great ..but how long it lasts is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 days of a cutter induced 60 is a real possibility followed by another cold shot next week. I would add 5 degrees to all of these temps / which would still give you a real BN cold shot. Finally twice this year the full latitude ridge has paid off , so watch the backside of the departing trough next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: 2 days of a cutter induced 60 is a real possibility followed by another cold shot next week. I would add 5 degrees to all of these temps / which would still give you a real BN cold shot. Finally twice this year the full latitude ridge has paid off , so watch the backside of the departing trough next week I was mentioning in the other thread that the time around the 17th will be a chance for some type of snow event with the -NAO/+PNA. But plenty of mild temps, rain, and snow melt into the weekend. After the 17th, we get the more typical La Nina Western Trough/Eastern Ridge pattern for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z ECMWF has the interior reaching the lower 60's on Friday with 50's on the coast. Going to feel like Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The Euro is pretty unstable Friday night as well. Close to 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE over Eastern sections. Would like to see that jet max over Western VA and PA instead of overhead, as SLP develops overhead instead of just to our Southwest. Still we're talking about several inches of rain, more East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Both the GFS and Euro have PWATS near or above record levels for January Friday into Saturday. Not a good combination of snow melt, mild temps, and heavy rain for flood prone basements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro has a moderate snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday as does the GFS. Canadian had also shown something around that time previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 12z ECMWF has the interior reaching the lower 60's on Friday with 50's on the coast. Going to feel like Spring. Saturday morning is going to be very mild too. All 12z 51 EPS members track the low well to our west Friday into Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Both the GFS and Euro have PWATS near or above record levels for January Friday into Saturday. Not a good combination of snow melt, mild temps, and heavy rain for flood prone basements. That's why, like you mentioned, I'm hoping we can chip away at the snowcover before Friday. Today definitely made a dent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro has a moderate snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday as does the GFS. Canadian had also shown something around that time previous runs What the ECMWF and GFS are showing for the 17th provides an illustration as to why one should not automatically assume that a strongly negative PNA pattern will bring unbroken warmth and an absence of snowfall to the region. The other teleconnections, especially the AO, matter. The data from yesterday are worth restating. For the January 1-31, 1981-2010 period, here’s select data for New York City: All cases: Mean temperature: 33.0° % days with measurable snowfall: 13.0% PNA of -0.75 or below: Mean temperature: 38.4° % days with measurable snowfall: 4.3% PNA of -0.75 or below and an AO < 0: Mean temperature: 33.4° % days with measurable snowfall: 8.3% The ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement that there will be frequent AO- values that accompany the PNA- values. That means transient cold shots will occur within the larger period of warmth. Should storm systems be timed just right, there will be possibilities for snowfall. Not surprisingly, I don’t think the NYC area has seen its last accumulating snowfall this month. I suspect that there will be at least 1-2 additional measurable snow events. The modeled event for around the 17th is a reasonable candidate for one such event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, JerseyWx said: That's why, like you mentioned, I'm hoping we can chip away at the snowcover before Friday. Today definitely made a dent. I think places that received 6" or less should be fine. Thursday looks mild enough to get rid of most of it. Also the rain seems to come in 2 waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It's not going to be a wall to wall torch, at the very least the pattern will be a lot more active than we saw. With a little luck I'm sure we could get some snow events in there, we've done it under worse conditions last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Never saw this before Short Term Forecast Short Term Forecast National Weather Service New York NY 218 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2018 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-092115- Southern Middlesex-Southern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern New London-Northern Fairfield-Northern New London-Northern Middlesex-Southern New Haven-Hudson-Western Union-Western Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Passaic-Southwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Bronx-Northeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau-Rockland-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Northern Westchester- 218 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2018 ...Clear skies and snow cover resulting in intense sun glare late this afternoon... The sun sets to the west southwest or 240 degrees this afternoon at approxiately 440 PM over eastern sections and 450 PM over western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think places that received 6" or less should be fine. Thursday looks mild enough to get rid of most of it. Also the rain seems to come in 2 waves Yeah I agree. Between tomorrow and Thursday a good deal should be gone (excluding areas that really got a thumping). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah I agree. Between tomorrow and Thursday a good deal should be gone (excluding areas that really got a thumping). even here, we lost a good 3-4 inches today. I bet we are down to 4-5 inches before we even see a drop of rain. Just piles will remain by late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 After a Historic cold stretch we will find a very warm 3 day period this weekend where 60 may occur twice in and around NYC , but that is followed by 5 days of BN temps. If the EPS MJO is right , the warm up following the 20th would get muted. If the GFS is right , we go into phase 4 and 5 and we break for 2 weeks until Feb 5th. The AO will be negative during this time and will inject HP into the pattern on either side of a few cutters. Plus 5 in mid and late Jan , means you are in low to mid 40`s ( Not a torch ) which is very different if that happened in early December. There your temps would soar into the low and mid 50`s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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