MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Guess you guys can`t see those maps , it`s a cold rain changing to snow all the way to the coast with accumulating snow in far NWNJ into the HV ( even onto Long Island - Bluewave is a snow magnet ) and a snowstorm from the Catskills N . The coast is going to rain , but the LHV should pay attention to the weekend system. The coast is going to rain as per right now but I think this shifts more east. Models are starting to catch on to the PNA spike . The AO is going to be slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Sleet and freezing rain falling here, temp 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Ended with .25" of ice and snow radar looked better than ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Most of the snowpack with the exception of the larger piles and drifts will be gone by Monday morning. Widespread 50's on Friday with heavy rain and fog. Your area of CNJ will make a run on 60. Yeh , its`s a 1 day warm up on the European OP. Now look at 120 and 126 and overlap the precip. You pour at 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Yeh , its`s a 1 day warm up on the European OP. Now look at 120 and 126 and overlap the precip. You pour at 40 degrees Overall the trends have been mixed. The warmup this week may not be as bad. The ensuing cold shot has lost some punch and it looks largely dry to boot. The main theme though is the warmup after that has gained steam for sure. I was doubting my idea of running it to 1/26-1/28 but it’s probably going to be at least that. JB’s 2/5 idea may be close. I don’t think it’s going to be an all out torch though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 With regard to the modeled PNA- in the long-range (1/20-25), this modeled trough should coincide with the peak of the thaw that is getting underway. However, one should not assume generally unrelenting warm or very warm conditions, as the AO is forecast to be negative during much of that time. Transient cold shots, along the lines of what is likely Wednesday and forecast on the guidance for the 14th-15th, remain possible. Such cold shots could lower the overall mean temperature for the period as a whole and, if timed with precipitation, could provide at least some opportunity for snow or sleet. For the January 1-31, 1981-2010 period, here’s select data for New York City: All cases: Mean temperature: 33.0° % days with measurable snowfall: 13.0% PNA of -0.75 or below: Mean temperature: 38.4° % days with measurable snowfall: 4.3% PNA of -0.75 or below and an AO < 0: Mean temperature: 33.4° % days with measurable snowfall: 8.3% All in all, I don’t think January has seen its last measurable snowfall in the NYC area, even if today produces no measurable snow at Central Park. I have little reason to change my thinking that the month could see 10”-15” snow. Following the thaw, I believe the EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern that has recently predominated will redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Overall the trends have been mixed. The warmup this week may not be as bad. The ensuing cold shot has lost some punch and it looks largely dry to boot. The main theme though is the warmup after that has gained steam for sure. I was doubting my idea of running it to 1/26-1/28 but it’s probably going to be at least that. JB’s 2/5 idea may be close. I don’t think it’s going to be an all out torch though This week seems more like a transitory week before the full 2-week thaw, once we lose the EPO and PNA I think things will get very toasty (last 1/3 of January) for a few days. No 70F this week, 60 maybe but I'd be shocked if the 60s didn't come back when the thaw gets fully going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Overall the trends have been mixed. The warmup this week may not be as bad. The ensuing cold shot has lost some punch and it looks largely dry to boot. The main theme though is the warmup after that has gained steam for sure. I was doubting my idea of running it to 1/26-1/28 but it’s probably going to be at least that. JB’s 2/5 idea may be close. I don’t think it’s going to be an all out torch though There should be a nice 10 day reprieve after day 9. It is going to feel nice after this well BN stretch. The Euro monthly is out today for Feb and it looks very good and is in line with what many have been thinking for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Light sleet with a few snowflakes here. There might have been a few rain drops, but if so they didn't last long and I missed them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Moderate snow/sleet mix now, 31*. Disaster of a commute incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Started as freezing rain on the UWS. The a period of snow and now sleet. The mid levels must be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Mostly snow (light) here now. We are just on the eastern edge of the band depicted on the radar. There is a light coating on the pavement. ZR was a non-issue in my neighborhood, at least so far. I think these are better looking snow flakes than I saw during most of the blizzard. Temp is 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Started as freezing rain on the UWS. The a period of snow and now sleet. The mid levels must be a mess I was shocked to an extent we saw freezing rain. I thought it was maybe 10% we would see any based on the soundings but it’s real tricky sometimes. I think the margin of the warm layer for sleet vs freezing rain is impacted by many other factors beyond what most realize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 32 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: There should be a nice 10 day reprieve after day 9. It is going to feel nice after this well BN stretch. The Euro monthly is out today for Feb and it looks very good and is in line with what many have been thinking for February. More traditional La Nina pattern developing next few weeks. Looks like the Euro tries to bring the forcing back closer to W oft he DL later in the month. With a lag, that should probably produce a post thaw more favorable winter period in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Pure sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cfa said: Pure sleet here. That’s what my Gf just reported in Wantagh. I thought once it changed to snow here on the UWS it would stay snow. But it went over to and has stayed sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s what my Gf just reported in Wantagh. I thought once it changed to snow here on the UWS it would stay snow. But it went over to and has stayed sleet Same here. Back to mostly sleet now. I suspect it will flop around some more before it ends. Basically the mixed bag that was advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Light snow in port Jefferson, 32f. Fresh coating on roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just nasty. Coating of sleet on everything. It's almost a skating rink on the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Mostly snow again. 30F. Won't amount to much but its a solid coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Yeh , its`s a 1 day warm up on the European OP. Now look at 120 and 126 and overlap the precip. You pour at 40 degrees Nice ice/ snowstorm trends today on Euro/ GEFS/ EPS Fri nite into Sunday AM interior of your area and New England. I’d even watch NYC for some sort of changeover at some point. That HP keeps trending stronger each run and is pressing in from the NW.. not pulling away NE . 5 days to continue trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice ice/ snowstorm trends today on Euro/ GEFS/ EPS Fri nite into Sunday AM interior of your area and New England. I’d even watch NYC for some sort of changeover at some point. That HP keeps trending stronger each run and is pressing in from the NW.. not pulling away NE . 5 days to continue trending NFL Playoff game Saturday Night in Foxboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nice ice/ snowstorm trends today on Euro/ GEFS/ EPS Fri nite into Sunday AM interior of your area and New England. I’d even watch NYC for some sort of changeover at some point. That HP keeps trending stronger each run and is pressing in from the NW.. not pulling away NE . 5 days to continue trending Kevin, it's one of those winters where it just wants to snow. I don't trust any torch that has high latitude blocking Warm from this sick period , certainly but I just don't see anything long term or extreme. In fact I would not be shocked to see it snow in the relaxation period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Kevin, it's one of those winters where it just wants to snow. I don't trust any torch that has high latitude blocking Warm from this sick period , certainly but I just don't see anything long term or extreme. In fact I would not be shocked to see it snow in the relaxation period And while I wouldn’t call for it yet.. we may be able to have less than a 24 hour period of “torch “ this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And while I wouldn’t call for it yet.. we may be able to have less than a 24 hour period of “torch “ this week. I was thinking 2 days , and one will feature 1.5 inches of rain unless that cools. I hate losing my snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice ice/ snowstorm trends today on Euro/ GEFS/ EPS Fri nite into Sunday AM interior of your area and New England. I’d even watch NYC for some sort of changeover at some point. That HP keeps trending stronger each run and is pressing in from the NW.. not pulling away NE . 5 days to continue trending Thanks for wandering on down to our little slice of heaven here. Strongly agree about that high pressure, it’s a nice banana high that is pressing down on this system. Hopefully we see more model response east/colder with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Thanks for wandering on down to our little slice of heaven here. Strongly agree about that high pressure, it’s a nice banana high that is pressing down on this system. Hopefully we see more model response east/colder with this feature. It's really not that far away already for areas N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 One photo from this morning and then this evening after 0.1" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 27 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Thanks for wandering on down to our little slice of heaven here. Strongly agree about that high pressure, it’s a nice banana high that is pressing down on this system. Hopefully we see more model response east/colder with this feature. Well Qg Omega likes to come into the SNE forum and spew nonsense like it would be in the 50’s this weekend with a low over Buffalo . So I figured I’d just swing by and try and offer some keen insight. One or two more trends stronger and we get NYC into at least some wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Was mainly sleet and rain at the courthouse in Islip, but a dangerous glaze on everything here at home in Lindenhurst. Still some freezing drizzle now. Def be careful out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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