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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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36 minutes ago, sferic said:

28 degrees in Lynbrook, hopefully we stay below 32 and get an inch of snow to whiten everything up.

With that report of freezing rain to our west, doubtful.

Also, it’s really warming up with the SW flow on the island with 35 at KFOK. Holding on to 28 here in Wantagh. This is exactly why SWFE are rarely good here.

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17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

With that report of freezing rain to our west, doubtful.

Also, it’s really warming up with the SW flow on the island with 35 at KFOK. Holding on to 28 here in Wantagh. This is exactly why SWFE are rarely good here.

I agree...Sleet is probably the best hope.   Who needs ZR...very dangerous.

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

With that report of freezing rain to our west, doubtful.

Also, it’s really warming up with the SW flow on the island with 35 at KFOK. Holding on to 28 here in Wantagh. This is exactly why SWFE are rarely good here.

Their is a warm tongue aloft over PA that hasn't really made it into NJ or NY. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Their is a warm tongue aloft over PA that hasn't really made it into NJ or NY. 

Let’s hope it doesn’t make it into our area. Freezing rain is the absolute worst case scenario possible. The latest HRRR and both 12k and 3k NAM have basically nothing, snow/sleet/freezing rain or otherwise for our immediate area. The band out in PA is moving fast

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

The SPC mesoanalysis has 925 mb above freezing over most of NY and up into the Bronx. There's even warmer air hidden somewhere between the analyzed levels since it's raining all the way up here.

It’s raining all the way up in High Point State Park, NJ and that band is moving this way. This is about to get very ugly

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Surprised that nobody commented on the 12z Euro run yet. Flooding thaw and rainstorm followed by an interior ice storm late week into weekend.

Down here in Northern Middlesex County NJ the snow pack is only a few inches so there will be no flooding - the larger concern is all the potholes that will develop from the expansion of the surface along with water main breaks - especially if we start having a cycle of very cold to a quick warmup then back to below freezing next week

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49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s hope it doesn’t make it into our area. Freezing rain is the absolute worst case scenario possible. The latest HRRR and both 12k and 3k NAM have basically nothing, snow/sleet/freezing rain or otherwise for our immediate area. The band out in PA is moving fast

 

You better hope this does not verify for your area.

 

The EURO is now down to 1 day of warmth over the next 10. 

 

And this is a possibility / look at the change in just 12 hours for N and W posters.

 

1 DAY - we will see if that holds. But this would be serious N and W. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_neng_23  JAN 8 0Z 2M.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_24 JAN 8 0Z 2M 132 HOURS.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_21 JAN 8 12Z 120.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_22  JAN 8 12Z 126 HOURS.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_21 JAN 8 PRECIP 120.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_22 JAN 8 12Z 132 PRECIP.png

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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s starting to lightly rain up here in Sloatsburg. Frozen ground, 27 degrees. Yep, this is gonna be real bad....

They have put down so much sodium spray on the main roads today here and with temps approaching 30 anything that manages to fall will have a real hard time freezing - also the sun is actually peaking through in Central NJ - very questionable whether or not this will have any impact - the greater impact will be on secondary roads and hillier terrain close to the city and in the cities should have minimal impact....

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5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

You better hope this does not verify for your area.

 

The EURO is now down to 1 day of warmth over the next 10. 

 

And this is a possibility / look at the change in just 12 hours for N and W posters.

 

1 DAY - we will see if that holds. But this would be serious N and W. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_neng_23  JAN 8 0Z 2M.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_24 JAN 8 0Z 2M 132 HOURS.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_21 JAN 8 12Z 120.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_22  JAN 8 12Z 126 HOURS.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_21 JAN 8 PRECIP 120.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_22 JAN 8 12Z 132 PRECIP.png

although temps during the expected January thaw might average above normal it will not be days on end of temps in the 40's and 50's - will be a few days above average - then below average for a few with even the possibility of a snowstorm next week before more warmth that will not last very long going to be more of a roller coaster ride in temps then an actual prolonged stretch of above to well above temps...…...

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

They have put down so much sodium spray on the main roads today here and with temps approaching 50 anything that manages to fall will have a real hard time freezing - also the sun is actually peaking through in Central NJ - very questionable whether or not this will have any impact - the greater impact will be on secondary roads and hillier terrain close to the city and in the cities should have minimal impact....

Temps approaching 50??

Where?

 

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

although temps during the expected January thaw might average above normal it will not be days on end of temps in the 40's and 50's - will be a few days above average - then below average for a few with even the possibility of a snowstorm next week before more warmth that will not last very long going to be more of a roller coaster ride in temps then an actual prolonged stretch of above to well above temps...…...

 

I agree , the Euro has backed down to only 1 day of AN next week and paints a serious ICE storm in the HV and NNJ at hour 120 -126.

 

Not sure if you guys could open those maps, but they are ugly N and W 

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7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

They have put down so much sodium spray on the main roads today here and with temps approaching 50 anything that manages to fall will have a real hard time freezing - also the sun is actually peaking through in Central NJ - very questionable whether or not this will have any impact - the greater impact will be on secondary roads and hillier terrain close to the city and in the cities should have minimal impact....

you talking about today?    LOL....most are well below freezing and have been for 2 weeks...

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22 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

You better hope this does not verify for your area.

 

The EURO is now down to 1 day of warmth over the next 10. 

 

And this is a possibility / look at the change in just 12 hours for N and W posters.

 

1 DAY - we will see if that holds. But this would be serious N and W. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_neng_23  JAN 8 0Z 2M.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_24 JAN 8 0Z 2M 132 HOURS.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_21 JAN 8 12Z 120.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_22  JAN 8 12Z 126 HOURS.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_21 JAN 8 PRECIP 120.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_22 JAN 8 12Z 132 PRECIP.png

Rockland County would probably be ok verbatim, but Orange County and especially on north, yea, that’s a devastating freezing rain storm. Like worst case scenario, crippling ice storm

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34 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

You better hope this does not verify for your area.

 

The EURO is now down to 1 day of warmth over the next 10. 

 

And this is a possibility / look at the change in just 12 hours for N and W posters.

 

1 DAY - we will see if that holds. But this would be serious N and W. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_neng_23  JAN 8 0Z 2M.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_24 JAN 8 0Z 2M 132 HOURS.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_21 JAN 8 12Z 120.png

ecmwf_t2m_neng_22  JAN 8 12Z 126 HOURS.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_21 JAN 8 PRECIP 120.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_22 JAN 8 12Z 132 PRECIP.png

I’ve been hammering this for days here, strong banana high pressure to the north, we’ve seen this story before.

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