White Gorilla Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The models are also showing a direct tropical moisture plume into the area with potentially record PWATS for January above +1.60". We could be looking at quite a bit of snowmelt from fog, temps above 50, and rain. Probably something to monitor if you have a flood prone basement. Talk about extremes! From record cold and blizzard to spring warmth and tropical sourced rain in just a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Talk about extremes! From record cold and blizzard to spring warmth and tropical sourced rain in just a week. That's what I was mentioning yesterday. It has been quite a roller coaster ride of weather extremes during the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 70+ would be even more impressive given what's transpired these past 12 days, but it's definitely not surprising to see. How quickly people forget how warm temps can get when a two week deep winter pattern sets in. It would be , but it's not modeled and I brought it up so don't sweat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Talk about extremes! From record cold and blizzard to spring warmth and tropical sourced rain in just a week. Jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Hold the spring talk for the love of God. Plus 3c in the middle of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hold the spring talk for the love of God. Plus 3c in the middle of Jan. The EPS only busted 5 degrees too cold for today's max and 12 degrees too cold for today's minimum. This with zero lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Morris said: The EPS only busted 5 degrees too cold for today's max and 12 degrees too cold for today's minimum. This with zero lead time. You see the GEFS is in agreement with the Euro here right ? The GFS is plus 3c for 5 days when N s are 39/ 29 Does that look like 70 and spring What would you like to use as guidance ? The FIM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 70? 70? Did the Euro regain it's crown? My forecast highs in Dutchess County for next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are 48, 45, and 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The same people are chiming in who had 60 for Christmas...Geez a rainstorm and mild temps, that never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jan 1996 Yup, as I have recently referenced 95-96 as a much scaled up version of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 70? 70? Did the Euro regain it's crown? My forecast highs in Dutchess County for next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are 48, 45, and 30. The NWS is slow to change their point and click forecasts. If it's clear by Weds that the Euro is right, they'll update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What a warm freak show in here. A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall to date. February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ? LOL / No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year. The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February. Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys. I totally enjoy your approach and how you put it forth. It almost always makes me smile. Thanks. 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree with your thinking concerning February. Moreover, I believe we’re only at the half-way point in terms of seasonal snowfall for this winter. A few more nickel and dime events would be a pleasure and will get us all to a solid seasonal average but I think we will see at least one, if not two, significant storms. These will likely put us over average at least up here in the HV as late season storms often are bigger up here than down in the immediate metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Granted I have just 40 yrs of record but have set 7 daily record lows since 12/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Great view of the ice on the Hudson this morning from Eweather. https://mobile.twitter.com/Eweather13/status/950007909878059008/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, doncat said: Granted I have just 40 yrs of record but have set 7 daily record lows since 12/28. Very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Don't sleep on what sometimes happens in mid January regardless of any forecast warmup. GEM LAN looks good for tomorrow BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Just already seeing signs by day 15 on the EPS around Alaska showing the attempt to reconnect the heights over the pole If the negative retrogrades from the west coast back under that ridging and establishes a new -EPO then you are going to put the trough back in the east between day 15 to 20 Thats only a 10 to 15 day break , so the break is small. 60 plus during a few cutters is always an option , but so is a freak event in any warm up in the middle of January if you shorten a wavelength. That's why this upcoming break doesn't impress me. I wouldn't even worry about the temperature departure during February in regard to how well we do in the snowfall department. There was an old meteorologist on TV years ago who would like to say it just wants to snow. That is the type of pattern we find ourselves in during the 2010's. Snowfall has found a way to produce every February here since 2013 regardless of what the temperature departure has been. The data below is for ISP but you see the message here. February temperature departures and monthly snowfall at ISP since 2013: 2017...+5.0...14.7" 2016...+2.9...13.2" 2015...-11.4...13.4" 2014...-3.1....24.5" 2013...-0.7....31.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I wouldn't even worry about the temperature departure during February in regard to how well we do in the snowfall department. There was an old meteorologist on TV years ago who would like to say it just wants to snow. That is the type of pattern we find ourselves in during the 2010's. Snowfall has found a way to produce every February here since 2013 regardless of what the temperature departure has been. The data below is for ISP but you see the message here. February temperature departures and monthly snowfall at ISP since 2013: 2017...+5.0...14.7" 2016...+2.9...13.2" 2015...-11.4...13.4" 2014...-3.1....24.5" 2013...-0.7....31.4" And that would get Don to his 40. We were just saying away , it just wants to snow. But that's a great February Pacific / EPO driven stat , its been such a dominant anomaly for that last 5 years regardless of temp I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: And that would get Don to his 40. We were just saying away , it just wants to snow. But that's a great February Pacific / EPO driven stat , its been such a dominant anomaly for that last 5 years regardless of temp I see. Just don't remind me about missing out on that Feb 2013 jackpot,ridiculous reflectivities, and rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just don't remind me about missing out on that Feb 2013 jackpot,ridiculous reflectivities, and rates. Storm was incredible. Was west of the main band, got the scraps and still managed 22 inches. A lot of spots are within 67% of seasonal average. Even if we get a flip we should still reach average almost by accident. More than likely we get back into a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 There are some not insignificant alterations occurring w/ the global AAM budget and concomitant GWO circulation as we transition from December to January, and all objective indicators of SPV status suggest a vortex intensification (VI) is initiating at various pressure levels in the stratosphere. Ozone concentrations continue to decrease in the Arctic domain, the PV area is increasing, proxies for the Brewer-Dobson circulation indicate weakening, zonal winds are rapidly increasingly at multifarious levels, and temperatures are cooling to two standard deviations or more below normal. These are all signs auguring consolidation of the SPV, and thus a predilection to countermand sustained colder than normal temperatures in the Eastern US. December was generally characterized by a somewhat heightened angular momentum regime with jet extensions and eastward displaced mid level ridging, particularly when juxtaposed with La Nina climatology. However, as we move forward, frictional torque becomes negative with an ostensible decrease in relative AAM. EA MT will be mostly neutral to negative in the medium range; this is consistent with the GWO circulation into phases of lower AAM. Tropical forcing is very much connected w/ relative AAM tendencies as well, and going forward we will resume a fairly "typical" IO/maritime continent based LF forcing, and I think the mean pattern will project more strongly onto the classic La Nina forcing than December's forcing signature. The result of which should be a more retracted jet stream, and consequently lower geopotential heights tending to amplify in the West beginning D7+. This overall pattern of suppressed angular momentum / retracted jet / La Nina forcing will persist for the rest of January. Concomitantly, the z500 circulation structure in the medium term will begin to constructively interfere with wave-2 and thus enhance pressure on the SPV by D20-30. This will lead to a gradual weakening of the SPV in the long range, as we approach February. However, whether w2 is sufficiently robust to induce significant perturbation is currently indeterminate, but that will be revisited. The vortex will weaken in the long range, however. The retracted jet regime will implicate a relatively unpropitious PNA domain compared to December, and as a result, a tendency to maintain East Coast ridging in the means. A warmer than normal pattern is on the way, and the end of the week will surge to 60F for most, followed by another trough amplification (but devoid of severely cold air). As the critical EPO domain transitions positive, the temperature trend responds accordingly in a more positive direction. The critical problem with the an Eastern snow threat in the mid month period is the rapid eastward expansion of low geopotential heights into the W North American coast which will quickly deamplify the PNA, and force it eastward. The anafrontal wave must develop at precisely the right time, as the upstream ridging is very unstable. Therefore, probability is low for significant event at this time. The second half of January should be warmer than normal in the means, with intermittent outbreaks of polar air. As alluded to in the foregoing, the tropical forcing pattern will be favorable for a more retracted jet, and thus, when the Nina-esque poleward ridging resumes, it will occur at a longitude further west than the previous pulse. This implies lower heights in the West and a proclivity for higher heights near the East Coast. I don't really have any changes from my earlier thoughts, namely that the rest of January looks mostly unfavorable for significant snow potential in the coastal East. Of course, minor events can still occur, and one can't rule out something larger than that, but it would be a function of fortuitous timing (and probability will always be low for those events given the stochastic nature). One point regarding geo-potential heights. Don't let the colors fool you - yellow colors doesn't always mean blocking. The position of the tropospheric polar vortex on the D10-15 EPS is indicative of a generally positive NAO. In the longer term, I continue to anticipate increased favorability in February, as we gradaully transition toward a weaker SPV status. However, I don't think temperatures will be severely cold for such a protracted period as we just experienced. This was the worst of the winter as far as snow/cold combined in my opinion. However, I think Feb 1-15 will produce a snow event equal to or larger than the last one for many (especially NYC-west). I think the retracted jet pattern may continue to be an issue in Feb w/ Pac NW low heights and SE-ridge tendencies, but this will place increased importance on the NAO state, largely a function of the resultant w2 behavior over the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Next 8 days up to an average of 38degs., or 5degs. AN. Right now I have 19degs., but low was 18degs., several hours ago. Month to date is a whopping -16.7degs., and if we are just NORMAL now for the remainder , we would finish at -3.8degs. Looked at from the other direction, if remainder of month is +4.8degs., we would finish @ NORMAL. Since a 24 day period with a departure of this magnitude occurs only 20% of the time based on past Jans., [50 years]I would say there is nearly an 80% chance we end up BN for the month. Nearly--- because it is slightly easier to average +4.8 for 24 days, than it is for a whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Yesterday was the 13th consecutive day on which the temperature remained below freezing in New York City and this morning marked the 13th consecutive day on which the temperature fell below 20°. Both are the longest such periods since the 16-day period from January 19 through February 3, 1961. The first week of January had a mean temperature of 16.4°. That's the coldest 7-day period since January 16-22, 1994 when the temperature averaged 15.3° Meteorologically, the region is poised to experience a January thaw. Such a thaw is not likely to be characterized by unrelenting warmth, but mild periods interrupted by transient cold shots. NYC’s Average Temperature Through: 1/7: 16.4° (16.6° below normal) 1/10: 20.4°-21.6° (1/7 estimate: 20.4°-22.2°) 1/15: 25.6°-28.4° (1/7 estimate: 26.7°-29.9°) 1/20: 26.4°-30.0° (1/7 estimate: 27.1°-31.0°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 58% (1/7 estimate: 56%) Later today into tonight, much of the region will likely pick up a coating to an inch of snow. Some sleet and possibly freezing rain could affect a few areas before the quick-moving system departs. In the long-range, if one looks at the latest EPS, one finds a trough in the west and ridge in the east in 15 days. One also sees blocking in the AO region. That will likely mark the peak of the thaw. If one rotates the features eastward about 30° one winds up with a pattern that is remarkably similar to the predominant February pattern following winters during which there were two or more single digit readings in NYC during the first 10 days of January (1968, 1970, 1996, 2004, 2014, and 2015). All those cases saw a colder than normal February. The warmest was February 2004 with a mean temperature of 35.0°. The coldest was February 2015 with a mean temperature of 23.9°. This anecdotal evidence offers an additional argument that the imminent thaw won't mark the end of winter 2017-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 15 hours ago, Morris said: The EPS only busted 5 degrees too cold for today's max and 12 degrees too cold for today's minimum. This with zero lead time. euro and the eps do have a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: euro and the eps do have a warm bias. The raw OP Euro actually has been showing a cold bias recently. The NWS runs a MOS correction on the Euro but is only available on the NWS office AWIPS. Check out how much colder the 1/4 NYC forecast was than the verification so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The raw OP Euro actually has been showing a cold bias recently. The NWS runs a MOS correction on the Euro but is only available on the NWS office AWIPS. Check out how much colder the 1/4 NYC forecast was than the verification so far. The raw numbers have been too cold, especially for NYC. I've noticed on some of the colder days e.g., January 7, the raw numbers for NYC were colder than those for HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The raw numbers have been too cold, especially for NYC. I've noticed on some of the colder days e.g., January 7, the raw numbers for NYC were colder than those for HPN. It's too bad the NWS ECMWF MOS isn't readily available. The interesting thing about the Euro is that it's 850 temps are usually close but the surface runs too cold. I guess this is why we like to post the Euro 850 t's to show what the more realistic surface temperatures could be. The NAM raw numbers along with the GFS MOS and MET have been doing very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The CMC/GFS are wanting to waste 2"-5" of liquid, as all rain , over the next 10 days. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The circulation structure will resemble December 2012 for a period w/ classic ineffective geopotential heights over the AO/NAO domain, due to the low height signal near the W NA coast. This could produce an anomalous warm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 My subfreezing streak ended 30 minutes ago. 13 days and 16 hours (exactly). 7:07 PM on 12/25/17 to 11:07 AM on 01/08/18. Insane. 32.5° now, and it feels relatively mild despite the cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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