SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 IMO the cool down from Saturday onward has also gotten less impressive too, so it’s a bit of a double edged sword. After Day 10-11 is the real question mark. Is it a 2 week thaw, 5 days, 10 days or 2 months? We really don’t know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Dusting to an inch possible for the area tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 4 hours ago, masomenos said: If we had another week of this cold we'd probably start seeing major disruptions to shipping in the NY harbor. Pretty good icing just started reaching NY Bay this morning. Today is the most extensive ice coverage on our local waterways since Feb 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 What a warm freak show in here. A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall to date. February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ? LOL / No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year. The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February. Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-65F day or two, the warm-ups often over perform. Snow cover will be gone by next weekend. Once again you are speaking in certainties a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nam shows about an hour of precip tomorrow afternoon with just a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam shows about an hour of precip tomorrow afternoon with just a coating Coating to an half inch Nothing big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Coating to an half inch Nothing big It’s going to be in an out fast too. Should be over and done by 6:00. Maybe a dusting? Honestly, it’s just a FROPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It’s going to be in an out fast too. Should be over and done by 6:00. Maybe a dusting? Honestly, it’s just a FROPA I wouldn't be surprised if most saw nothing. A couple hundredths that the nam has can easily end up being 0. The Euro and rgem are a bit wetter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 53 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What a warm freak show in here. A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall to date. February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ? LOL / No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year. The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February. Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys. of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it Potential record breaking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Potential record breaking ? yes. easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 question for anyone who's surprised: where have you been the past few years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What a warm freak show in here. A BN November , December and yes January with AN snowfall to date. February looks BN and potentially snowy and guys are jumping up and down over 2 warm weeks ? LOL / No one should care if it hits 70 , the AN snowless winter forecasts got their heads handed to them this year. The cold has been here , is here now and comes back in February. Yawn 2 weeks , enjoy it , you've been waiting all winter for it , I almost feel bad for you guys. I agree with your thinking concerning February. Moreover, I believe we’re only at the half-way point in terms of seasonal snowfall for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 For context, Central Park’s record high temperature for Friday is 66 degrees, which was set in 2017. I believe it is probably out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground. That’s correct. Let’s see how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 it will come down to rain/clouds timing like it always does this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The all-time record high January 850 temp at OKX is 14C... the Euro even has a 15C contour looming nearby, just in time for the 12z Saturday sounding. It's definitely a toasty air mass regardless of whether it translates into records on the ground. The models are also showing a direct tropical moisture plume into the area with potentially record PWATS for January above +1.60". We could be looking at quite a bit of snowmelt from fog, temps above 50, and rain. Probably something to monitor if you have a flood prone basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today is the most extensive ice coverage on our local waterways since Feb 15. That ice covering a good chunk of the Raritan Bay is very impressive. Pretty sure that didn't happen during Feb 15 or Jan 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course people are going to care if it hits 70. it's a weather board. yes the cold could come back but for now we are facing potential record breaking warmth before it Just already seeing signs by day 15 on the EPS around Alaska showing the attempt to reconnect the heights over the pole If the negative retrogrades from the west coast back under that ridging and establishes a new -EPO then you are going to put the trough back in the east between day 15 to 20 Thats only a 10 to 15 day break , so the break is small. 60 plus during a few cutters is always an option , but so is a freak event in any warm up in the middle of January if you shorten a wavelength. That's why this upcoming break doesn't impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow. The ground is frozen so it only takes . 1 or .2 to cause really slick conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM still showing pretty much nothing, but RGEM just came in with around 1 inch of snow for tomorrow. The new GFS is in the NAM camp, basically nothing at all. It completely breaks the band apart and dries it out as it crosses over the Appalachians. Looks like flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, masomenos said: That ice covering a good chunk of the Raritan Bay is very impressive. Pretty sure that didn't happen during Feb 15 or Jan 04. It was similar in Feb 15th but don't know if it was as extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Nice way to start off a month...first 7 days here averaged 14.6 degrees, a -17 degree departure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Tropical tidbits has the HRRRx now which goes out to 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new GFS is in the NAM camp, basically nothing at all. It completely breaks the band apart and dries it out as it crosses over the Appalachians. Looks like flurries Probably why there's a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, doncat said: Nice way to start off a month...first 7 days here averaged 14.6 degrees, a -17 degree departure! We'll need to average close to +5 the remainder of the month to make up the deficit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 45 minutes ago, forkyfork said: question for anyone who's surprised: where have you been the past few years? 70+ would be even more impressive given what's transpired these past 12 days, but it's definitely not surprising to see. How quickly people forget how warm temps can get when a two week deep winter pattern sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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