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January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I finally made it to the boardwalk today and it was brutal. Probably the coldest walk I’ve taken up there. In terms of “deep winter” if you combine snow and long lasting cold, this has to be the best in many years. Recent years have the snow but not so much the cold. Good to see the snow hanging around and not melting like crazy already. 

As of today, this is the 3rd longest below freezing streak for NYC.

 

5a521018d8100_Screenshot2018-01-07at7_15_03AM.png.45cad0a24325f3b76cd8589a818067e0.png

 

 

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20 minutes ago, tim said:

..just checked your weather station..you are currently -4.7*..wow!

..whats interesting i'm @ +4*/KFOK the same..the airport reported winds @ NW 10 mph..so

they never went calm..

It looks like central Suffolk went calm. Lots of PWS south of LIE from islip east to moriches at or below 0

parts of CT at -10 or below now 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As of today, this is the 3rd longest below freezing streak for NYC.

 

5a521018d8100_Screenshot2018-01-07at7_15_03AM.png.45cad0a24325f3b76cd8589a818067e0.png

 

 

 

What an amazing streak of cold and snow . I am happy all those early December great maps at 500 really produced to its potential.

Tuesday mornings light snow event will be my 6th since December 10th and although the 13 day streak below freezing is great  the amount of time we have spent in the teens over the last 2 weeks has been incredible.

BTW , the break coming is about 10 to 14 days or so.

I was looking out and by day 15 there's a trough in Europe , one in Asia , the ridge was going back up over the caspian and the ridge was building in the central Pacific 

 

That ridge will probably pull back into Alaska by day 20 and the trough will reemerge in the east shortly thereafter.

 

I like the looks of February.

 

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16 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

What an amazing streak of cold and snow . I am happy all those early December great maps at 500 really produced to its potential.

Tuesday mornings light snow event will be my 6th since December 10th and although the 13 day streak below freezing is great  the amount of time we have spent in the teens over the last 2 weeks has been incredible.

BTW , the break coming is about 10 to 14 days or so.

I was looking out and by day 15 there's a trough in Europe , one in Asia , the ridge was going back up over the caspian and the ridge was building in the central Pacific 

 

That ridge will probably pull back into Alaska by day 20 and the trough will reemerge in the east shortly thereafter.

 

I like the looks of February.

 

Yeah, the WPAC forcing is shifting  west as expected while we get a milder La Nina forcing pattern the next few weeks. I agree with you that the -EPO will try to reload again come February. I am thinking that it will be more west based this time with a bit more -PNA. But it should again introduce colder intervals with further snow chances. I just don't think the cold will come back as intense as we have seen since 12/26. But as we have seen in recent years, cold enough is all we need for snow.

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Made to -12 in Brewster, -11 at the station just below my house and -6 in Somers. Strange because the Brewster Mesonet station is exposed and towards the top of a hill pretty much the same as the one in Somers. The one at the bottom of the hill below me is in a hollow and tends to radiate very well, it's still -9 there now. The winner is KDXR at -14 :) 

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Made it down to 1.5° here, temp starting to rise now, it’s already 2.9°.

If the winds went calm an hour before they did, I likely would’ve gotten near/below zero. My thermometer falls just short of having a 100 degree range. Max of 100.6° and a min of 1.5° = a 99.1 degree range.

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After holding @6degs. for several hours, I am back up to 7degs.

 In a few hours more, you will be able to kiss the single digits goodbye till early Feb., at least.  Kiss the snow right off the ground from Jan. 20 to early Feb. too, [in the City]I am afraid.

I think the period Jan. 9-31 averages 2 to 4 degrees AN and Jan. ends up just 2 or 3 degrees BN.  I hope not---maybe EURO WEEKLIES will have better news.

With the rain predicted by the GFS/CMC, it could  a clean slate by Sat.

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-6 for  the low here not even coming close to my lows in 2 of  the last 3 winters.

Unfortunately not one record low in Central Park during the whole 13 day streak. As I've stated several times this was a nice streak for it's length of sustained cold but nothing extraordinary regarding low temperatures. 3 of the past 4 winters in NYC have had readings of 4 degrees or lower and this mornings low of 5 was the coldest it got in Central Park during this stretch not even matching the lows of those recent winters.

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1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

What an amazing streak of cold and snow . I am happy all those early December great maps at 500 really produced to its potential.

Tuesday mornings light snow event will be my 6th since December 10th and although the 13 day streak below freezing is great  the amount of time we have spent in the teens over the last 2 weeks has been incredible.

BTW , the break coming is about 10 to 14 days or so.

I was looking out and by day 15 there's a trough in Europe , one in Asia , the ridge was going back up over the caspian and the ridge was building in the central Pacific 

 

That ridge will probably pull back into Alaska by day 20 and the trough will reemerge in the east shortly thereafter.

 

I like the looks of February.

 

Pretty crazy that we may see more record highs than lows this month!

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22 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

-6 for  the low here not even coming close to my lows in 2 of  the last 3 winters.

Unfortunately not one record low in Central Park during the whole 13 day streak. As I've stated several times this was a nice streak for it's length of sustained cold but nothing extraordinary regarding low temperatures. 3 of the past 4 winters in NYC have had readings of 4 degrees or lower and this mornings low of 5 was the coldest it got in Central Park during this stretch not even matching the lows of those recent winters.

NYC was the only local major site that didn't tie or set a new record low the last 2 days.

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CPC

The AO have members staying negative and some staying positive next weekend and beyond

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The PNA will be rising towards next weekend and then dropping after that

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

The NAO will be staying positive

 

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2 hours ago, Fantom X said:

It looks like central Suffolk went calm. Lots of PWS south of LIE from islip east to moriches at or below 0

parts of CT at -10 or below now 

Yep, dropped to -4 in Commack. Never seen anything like this in my life. May never see anything that cold again in our lives.

 

72FB2158-7D02-4999-88ED-E9FE440401A3.png

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This morning, the temperature fell to 5° in Central Park. That is the 5th day this winter that the thermometer has fallen below 10°. The last winter with at least as many such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 9. This was also the 12th consecutive day on which the temperature fell below 20°, the most since there were 16 consecutive days during January 19-February 3, 1961. Also, yesterday's mean temperature of 9.5° was the lowest since the mean temperature was 7.0° on February 14, 2016.

Meteorologically, the region is now on the cusp of a transition to a January thaw. Despite the possibility of one or more days with high temperatures of 50° or above later this week, the warmest readings relative to normal are likely to occur toward the end of the thaw. This thaw is unlikely to signal an end to winter in the dramatic fashion that was witnessed for such stunted winters as 1989-90.

NYC’s Average Temperature Through:

1/6: 17.2° (15.8° below normal)
1/10: 20.4°-22.2° (1/6 estimate: 20.9°-23.3°)
1/15: 26.7°-29.9° (1/6 estimate: 26.8°-30.4°)
1/20: 27.1°-31.0° (1/6 estimate: 27.4°-31.6°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 56% (1/6 estimate: 55%)

Ahead of the thaw, a weak system will likely bring a coating to an inch of snow across much of the region.

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4 minutes ago, doncat said:

Today would be the 6th day of past 11 with high temp in teens here.

 

This is what I find more impressive than our low temps, which have been very cold, but not to extreme levels. I can't really recall stretches of more than 2-3 days of highs in the 10s in our cold winters since 2000.

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A true winter stretch, the duration of cold was incredible especially the max temps. Kind of amazing to jump around from the -11.8F Feb 2015 to the 13+ departure of Dec 2015, then a below zero NYC reading recently to the record warm Sept-Oct period and now this. 

However I'm ready for the thaw and much warmer temps. We'll probably cash in some more in February. 

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