January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would have to disagree with you  on this. The main sentiment that we sometimes see on the boards is that the current pattern will be what continues. Remember back in late August and early September how there were many posts suggesting that the cool pattern would continue. When we flipped to record warmth, that was going to continue. When the record cold arrived in early November, that meant that it wouldn't moderate. We got the moderation following that record cold shot. Next when the cold and snows arrived in early December , it couldn't go above 50 the week before Christmas  which happened. Now that we are seeing this extreme cold, the temperatures will be set to rebound again.

True, they do sniff out patterns and storm signals. I guess I shouldn’t have quoted you in that post. What you wrote just got me thinking.

as far as the coming warm up I think it will be muted due to the snow pack. Especially on the island where you now have a frozen great South Bay and near shore ocean temps in the mid 30s. 

[Eduardo]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A good example of that was the 2010-2011 winter. Remember back in late January 2011 when the pattern broke down and everyone kept saying that it was transient/brief and it was going to come right back? “Don’t trust long duration warmups in a cold pattern, this is temporary”.... I remember Joe Cioffi saying that back then

2010-11 was a different animal in that most of the early fun was NAO/AO-driven though, right?  Given the resiliency of the -EPO over the past few winters, an educated guesser would have to think that its upcoming relaxation is likely temporary.  If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on that feature, especially given the weakness and location of the Niña anomaly and the possibility of the MJO coming back around to favorable phases by the time we near the month of February (although that's admittedly more of a wildcard).

 

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Basically its almost a coin flip on whether we snap back to cold or not. I wonder what the statistics are for pattern flips vs. Reloads.

While nothing is ever certain, I think we have the tools at our disposal to render forecasts better than coin flips and, as I outlined above, I think those tools are enough to persuade me (and more importantly many of the pro's) that the upcoming two weeks will constitute a relaxation and reload rather than a full breakdown and reversal.  Winter'll likely rear it's head once again as we head into February, which is climatologically our snowiest month as well!

And good question regarding flips vs. reloads.  Related to my response above, I'd have to think that it's easier to completely flip an Atlantic-driven blocking pattern than a PAC one just due to the sheer size and greater amount of energy contained within the latter.  Just spitballing there though...

Will definitely be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few weeks.  So far, things have gone well for us winter weather lovers.  For what it's worth (unscientific, I know), this certainly has the "feel" of a cold, snowy winter.

[EastonSN+]

I think people tend to fear a pattern FLIP too much. Even in flips we still snow. We had an overrunning 3 to 6 inches late in 2011 after the flip. We had a couple March storms in 1990 after the big flip.

No reason to fear it. We can still score. Also, it may be temporary anyway.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

True, they do sniff out patterns and storm signals. I guess I shouldn’t have quoted you in that post. What you wrote just got me thinking.

as far as the coming warm up I think it will be muted due to the snow pack. Especially on the island where you now have a frozen great South Bay and near shore ocean temps in the mid 30s. 

I think the warm up ahead of the cutter will exceed some of the earlier expectations of only getting to around 40 degrees this week. Temps had no problem going above 50 soon after the blizzard in January 2016 with the much heavier totals. 

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think people tend to fear a pattern FLIP too much. Even in flips we still snow. We had an overrunning 3 to 6 inches late in 2011 after the flip. We had a couple March storms in 1990 after the big flip.

No reason to fear it. We can still score. Also, it may be temporary anyway.

Depends where you were. In 2011 we were done with snow after the late Jan storm here; we had a decent ice event and then nothing. In 1990 there was no significant snow here period. Overrunning events in this part of NJ don't add up to much. I'm not far from thebay and we warm up too fast; but I'm far enough away to not get the heavy bands like Thursday; they are usually right at our doorstep. Then stop short. We do best when the storms are coastal and move a bit inland or pummel I95 from say Princeton to Elizabeth. 

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the warm up ahead of the cutter will exceed some of the earlier expectations of only getting to around 40 degrees this week. Temps had no problem going above 50 soon after the blizzard in January 2016 with the much heavier totals. 

I have often seen warmups after decent storms ( and 8.5 Thursday was still a decent snowstorm here ) notable after the 96 storm we had rain a few days later. We had a warmup in 94 and thought winter was over, well it wasn't, it was just getting started and it snowed well into March that year.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends where you were. In 2011 we were done with snow after the late Jan storm here; we had a decent ice event and then nothing. In 1990 there was no significant snow here period. Overrunning events in this part of NJ don't add up to much. I'm not far from thebay and we warm up too fast; but I'm far enough away to not get the heavy bands like Thursday; they are usually right at our doorstep. Then top short. We do best when the storms are coastal and move a bit inland or pummel I95 from say Princeton to Elizabeth. 

I see. Here in coastal CT we did ok in March 1990. Agreed a different climo

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I see. Here in coastal CT we did ok in March 1990. Agreed a different climo

Yeah we were always jealous of you guys because most of the time a predicted snow ended up raining for us down here.

[CIK62]

AN Temps. on Jan. 18--23, look to undo the first 5 days of the month.

[doncat]

Lets see how many consecutive hours below 20 degrees we can do...My station dropped below 20 at 8 pm on Thursday...Euro says not till Monday morning.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

2010-11 was a different animal in that most of the early fun was NAO/AO-driven though, right?  Given the resiliency of the -EPO over the past few winters, an educated guesser would have to think that its upcoming relaxation is likely temporary.  If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on that feature, especially given the weakness and location of the Niña anomaly and the possibility of the MJO coming back around to favorable phases by the time we near the month of February (although that's admittedly more of a wildcard).

 

While nothing is ever certain, I think we have the tools at our disposal to render forecasts better than coin flips and, as I outlined above, I think those tools are enough to persuade me (and more importantly many of the pro's) that the upcoming two weeks will constitute a relaxation and reload rather than a full breakdown and reversal.  Winter'll likely rear it's head once again as we head into February, which is climatologically our snowiest month as well!

And good question regarding flips vs. reloads.  Related to my response above, I'd have to think that it's easier to completely flip an Atlantic-driven blocking pattern than a PAC one just due to the sheer size and greater amount of energy contained within the latter.  Just spitballing there though...

Will definitely be interesting to see how things unfold over the next few weeks.  So far, things have gone well for us winter weather lovers.  For what it's worth (unscientific, I know), this certainly has the "feel" of a cold, snowy winter.

Yes 10-11 was -AO/-NAO driven. Once it fell apart, it never came back again. The La Niña isn’t really very weak, the latest region 3.4 anomaly is over -1.2C 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I have often seen warmups after decent storms ( and 8.5 Thursday was still a decent snowstorm here ) notable after the 96 storm we had rain a few days later. We had a warmup in 94 and thought winter was over, well it wasn't, it was just getting started and it snowed well into March that year.

Since this is a La Nina, I do think the coldest part of the winter will be over this weekend. But there will be further snow opportunities this winter. 

[White Gorilla]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Since this is a La Nina, I do think the coldest part of the winter will be over this weekend. But there will be further snow opportunities this winter. 

I can definitely live with less cold, just keep the snow coming 

[MJO812]

Euro shows the NAO going negative next weekend

[Eduardo]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes 10-11 was -AO/-NAO driven. Once it fell apart, it never came back again. The La Niña isn’t really very weak, the latest region 3.4 anomaly is over -1.2C 

Eh, valid point, but it's been bouncing around quite a bit centered on a median of -1.0C or so.  Didn't February 2014 feature stubborn EPO blocking despite a strengthening, central-based Niña?  I recall that being a cold, snowy month around here after some *early-mid* January warmth.

[ForestHillWx]

I hit 0 this morning. I'm at 8 currently. Solid cold day. With the winds slacking; I'm looking forward to going below zero for the first time this winter season. 

 

We went below zero twice last winter. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I can definitely live with less cold, just keep the snow coming 

The beauty of the 2010's winters is that it snows whether the winter is mild or cold.

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The beauty of the 2010's winters is that it snows whether the winter is mild or cold.

Yup, it just needs to be cold enough.  Cold enough is all we need and somehow it finds a way to get here frequently.  

[MJO812]

Euro has a negative AO and NAO next weekend

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a negative AO and NAO next weekend

It's pretty east based which should favor the interior over coast.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's pretty east based which should favor the interior over coast  for the second wave after the cutter.

That system has a March 08 feel to it.  I know we haven’t seen any real bombs this winter outside of the coastal we just had but that one may be one 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

I hit 0 this morning. I'm at 8 currently. Solid cold day. With the winds slacking; I'm looking forward to going below zero for the first time this winter season. 

 

We went below zero twice last winter. 

2011-12 was the last complete dud in terms of snow, but we did have the October surprise and one piddly event in Jan but I was in Boston for that one where they managed 6 inches or so.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That system has a March 08 feel to it.  I know we haven’t seen any real bombs this winter outside of the coastal we just had but that one may be one 

Wasn’t March, 2008 a big cutter that hit Ohio? 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Wasn’t March, 2008 a big cutter that hit Ohio? 

It actually went right up the Apps which almost never happens

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's pretty east based which should favor the interior over coast  for the second wave after the cutter.

Not with the pna very positive along with the negative SO

I think that trends eastward off the coast. Still a long way to go 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Not with the pna very positive along with the negative SO

I think that trends eastward off the coast. Still a long way to go 

If the second storm comes out as amped as some of the guidance shows, flooding will be more of a concern along the coast with rain on the snowpack.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs suggests we may see 60F temps by next weekend, very possible if the cutter is amped up and it would represent yet another massive temperature swing. 

Could be quite a rollercoaster week overall with temps. 

[donsutherland1]

Today's high temperature was 13° in NYC. That is the coldest high temperature since the mercury reached only 10° on January 19, 1994. Some pictures from along the Hudson River this afternoon.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today's high temperature was 13° in NYC. That is the coldest high temperature since the mercury reached only 10° on January 19, 1994. Some pictures from along the Hudson River this afternoon.

Don, beautiful photos. There have even been photos of slush ice on the ocean off Westhampton Beach.

http://fireislandandbeyond.com/photos-sea-slush-in-the-ocean-off-westhampton-beach/2/

[ForestHillWx]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don, beautiful photos. There have even been photos of slush ice on the ocean off Westhampton Beach.

http://fireislandandbeyond.com/photos-sea-slush-in-the-ocean-off-westhampton-beach/2/

I think the Post had an article this week regarding tugs getting stuck in the ice. Coast guard interestingly had an ice breaker in the area. The article didn't indicate where between NYC and Albany, but the photo seemed like it was the Newburgh area.