CIK62 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I was referring to the precipitation shield which did not seem to give much more snow here from previous run. Gap closes for coast up to Cape Haterras and again a little bit for New England. We are closer, but still in the BN precipitation zone. So our precip. changed little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: they are not going to change it back to what they had 24 hours ago based on 1 or 2 sets of runs They sure will soon because we obviously have a western trend. People out in the cape should soon worry about rain to snow event if this hooks west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think their output is based off the models. Lately, it has been a somewhat smoothed version of the 0z GEFS output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Chris look at what is trying to nose in There ya go,that’s why you are seeing the trend of things bottling up and getting closer to a phase off the coast. If that holds true then the pieces will find their way together. Don’t be so concerned with any individual shortwave running out ahead at this point, watch for any hints of a transient block in the Atlantic and let the pieces fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Initially gfs looked better. southern stream was really holding back, but northern energy just wasn’t strong/dug deep enough and trough was more flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I still believe NYC has a 20% chance of measurable precip with this system and 40-50% chance for E LI. Historically, this is normally a MECS track for BOS. I suspect we will hallucinate for hours as we watch the precip shield hover just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Initially gfs looked better. southern stream was really holding back, but northern energy just wasn’t strong/dug deep enough and trough was more flat The heavier snow actually made it further west to central CT. Perhaps further east but stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Initially gfs looked better. southern stream was really holding back, but northern energy just wasn’t strong/dug deep enough and trough was more flat Could be the GFS se bias at play here. Ridge was stronger this run along with a slower southern stream. Oh well, I like where we stand right now. Onto the CMC and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Improvements showing up on the 12z UKMET with a stronger transient block over Newfoundland and earlier phase. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Improvements showing up on the 12z UKMET with a stronger transient block over Newfoundland and earlier phase. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Which is why it shows a 980 low over the BM on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The entire synoptic setup is a powder keg. If the phase is six to 12 hours sooner, we have a nuke off the coast. The whole setup has shifted west with a sooner, cleaner phase. Look out west. There has been a consistent trend for a more meridional ridge, which in turn amplified and digs the NS vort. If these trends continue, I would not be surprised to see a MECS by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Which is why it shows a 980 low over the BM on Thursday. Ukie is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: There ya go,that’s why you are seeing the trend of things bottling up and getting closer to a phase off the coast. If that holds true then the pieces will find their way together. Don’t be so concerned with any individual shortwave running out ahead at this point, watch for any hints of a transient block in the Atlantic and let the pieces fall where they may. The higher heights we've been seeing creeping in have come too late to have any meaningful impact on these runs for our area. 12 or more hours sooner and it should be able to help slow things down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Ukie is a hit (and probably a sizable hit) and it hooks back into NE. Might have a double barreled look at day 5 as the storm is rapidily strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 My only concern from that is the 120 position being so far east. Would need to see what would happen between panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: My only concern from that is the 120 position being so far east. Would need to see what would happen between panels. It has an elongated area of low pressure (Maybe double barreled like earlier Eueo runs that crushed us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: My only concern from that is the 120 position being so far east. Would need to see what would happen between panels. Historically, this is a great track for New England, but not for NYC Mrtro/N MA. I think UKmet looks interesting, but we would likely be on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Ukie is a hit (and probably a sizable hit) and it hooks back into NE. Might have a double barreled look at day 5 as the storm is rapidily strengthening. Its possible its misplacing that low at 120 as well. It may be further west with that weakness showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Historically, this is a great track for New England, but not for NYC Mrtro/N MA. I think UKmet looks interesting, but we would likely be on the outside looking in. Still have time to keep trending west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Guys stop staring at the "L" . Look at day 5 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That is probably signaling a fasten your seat belts 12z OP Euro run. Any shades of late Feb 2010 with that hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Still have time to keep trending west? Plant of time but in my eyes the Ukie would be good for us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 850 0C line is over the DelMarVa at 120h...that is most def a double-barrel low and likely a big hit. Maybe even too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, purduewx80 said: 850 0C line is over the DelMarVa at 120h...that is most def a double-barrel low and likely a big hit. Maybe even too close. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Canadian is gonna January 2000 us I think. I can only see bits and pieces of it as its coming in jumbled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 With a low going right into ME and looking to be strengthening rapidly east of NC, that would probably be a major hit at least for the city and east. I think we’re definitely still in the game, though coastal areas are likely favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: 850 0C line is over the DelMarVa at 120h...that is most def a double-barrel low and likely a big hit. Maybe even too close. Good point! I suspect using the thermal gradient, heaviest snow will reach back to -8 C at H850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GEM and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: GEM and still snowing GEM is a New England special. Probably light event for NYC and MECS for E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.