jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Having as much amplitude as possible in the western ridge to crash the northern stream down, and a slower southern stream to allow a close enough phase. That's what we need-good trends back tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Get the northern stream to dig in just a bit quicker and it's game on. That's a lot to ask in this fast flow pattern. Could end up being a close call like that big March snowstorm a few years ago, there's def bomb potential for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 And again, OMFG at the cold behind this storm on the euro. It gets well below -20C at 850, maybe -25. That would be low single digits, maybe zero in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The Euro is a monster , it's now only 150 to far miles east 5 days out The southern branch is literally 12 too slow for this to phase completely 5 days is an eternity , the differences above could be made up incrementally Now this has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a lot to ask in this fast flow pattern. Could end up being a close call like that big March snowstorm a few years ago, there's def bomb potential for somebody. This was a hair away for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a lot to ask in this fast flow pattern. Could end up being a close call like that big March snowstorm a few years ago, there's def bomb potential for somebody. The flow would slow with a deeper dig, they go hand in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We should focus on the northern stream, if the northern stream digs deeper, it backs the flow and pulls the southern piece in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a lot to ask in this fast flow pattern. Could end up being a close call like that big March snowstorm a few years ago, there's def bomb potential for somebody. It's already a close call with 5 days to go It could end up being ? It could end up being anything , your analysis here is just tantalizing For the rest of us , that was a monster solution that is a work in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Having as much amplitude as possible in the western ridge to crash the northern stream down, and a slower southern stream to allow a close enough phase. That's what we need-good trends back tonight. Going back the last few years, it always seems like the late night runs gave us the good news lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And again, OMFG at the cold behind this storm on the euro. It gets well below -20C at 850, maybe -25. That would be low single digits, maybe zero in the city. It looks like post-storm cold will be even colder than this post New Years cold we're about to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, Paragon said: It looks like post-storm cold will be even colder than this post New Years cold we're about to have. By then there will be insane ice on area waters. I’m planning to take a ton of pictures. Not sure if and when we ever see a run of cold like this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: By then there will be insane ice on area waters. I’m planning to take a ton of pictures. Not sure if and when we ever see a run of cold like this again I hope we break that 16 <32 record. I'd be upset if we reach like 33 on Jan 8th when we could have a chance at this record. We have to stay <32 through Jan 10 to tie it, the 11th to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: By then there will be insane ice on area waters. I’m planning to take a ton of pictures. Not sure if and when we ever see a run of cold like this again Ever try ice surfing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Late phase on the 6z gfs but big improvements with the height field on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gonna be close. Def west again. Might clip eastern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Still think it’s unlikely this gets much further west than 12/26/10 at best and right now I would put those chances at low. There needs to be changes to really get this thing to be a classic DC-BOS event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Still think it’s unlikely this gets much further west than 12/26/10 at best and right now I would put those chances at low. There needs to be changes to really get this thing to be a classic DC-BOS event Baby steps since the 12z suite. They add up after a while. The gfs just took a big step imo but it's the gfs. Let's see what the 12z suite shows. The Euro was very close tn to something big. We get a phase 12 hours sooner on that run and it's a major east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 EURO was subtly closer on 0Z. Real subtle. This thing still pops up far south and east of coast before it even starts to head north. Maybe forces on it would be different if could develop closed circulation farther north and closer to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, CIK62 said: EURO was subtly closer on 0Z. Real subtle. This thing still pops up far south and east of coast before it even starts to head north. Maybe forces on it would be different if could develop closed circulation farther north and closer to coast. There was nothing subtle about this 12z top image 0z bottom image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: There was nothing subtle about this 12z top image 0z bottom image lol subtle , that didn't take long to correct huh. Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with. I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th. Need am 1am start time and I'm good. BTW look at the NEG off the WC , that just has to sit back a bit more and the trough axis gets tugged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: lol subtle , that didn't take long to correct huh. Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with. I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th. Need am 1am start time and I'm good. Not a bad looking hybrid howler since the storm gets going so far south in the Bahamas. I would like to see the EPS have the phase earlier in later runs to make this more interesting for us. We are going to need more of a transient Newfoundland block than the 0z had to get this far enough west. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/17123006/140.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not a bad looking hybrid howler since the storm gets going so far south in the Bahamas. I would like to see the EPS have the phase earlier in later runs to make this more interesting for us. We are going to need more of a transient Newfoundland block than the 0z had to get this far enough west. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/17123006/140.html Yeh , we need the phase 12 hours earlier and it will tuck. It's close already and there's plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Yeh , we need the phase 12 hours earlier and it will tuck. It's close already and there's plenty of time These transient type Newfoundland blocks have been overperforming in recent years as we get closer to model time. It may be related to the record SST warmth off the EC causing the models to frequently correct closer to the coast with storms in later runs. The question here is will it make it far enough west or mainly impact the eastern sections of LI up through New England instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21 hours ago, NEG NAO said: WPC as of this morning still gives most of the Metro a sizable amount of precip for the coming week: This is the WPC 7 day QPF pictured above from 24 hours ago - the new WPC 7 Day QPF released this morning pictured below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: These transient type Newfoundland blocks have been overperforming in recent years as we get closer to model time. It may be related to the record SST warmth off the EC causing the models to frequently correct closer to the coast with storms in later runs. The main question here is will it make it far enough west or scrape the Eastern sections of LI up through New England instead? The 2 SW s haven't even been fully sampled yet and the rule this year has been they end up stronger after they get grabbed. The NEG off the PAC SW is further off the coast in just the last 24 hours. If that continues that's going to run to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Chris look at what is trying to nose in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I guess they haven't seen the new runs they are not going to change it back to what they had 24 hours ago based on 1 or 2 sets of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: they are not going to change it back to what they had 24 hours ago based on 1 or 2 sets of runs I think their output is based off the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.