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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a lot to ask in this fast flow pattern. Could end up being a close call like that big March snowstorm a few years ago, there's def bomb potential for somebody.

It's already a close call with 5 days to go 

It could end up being ?  

It could end up being anything , your analysis here is just tantalizing 

 

For the rest of us , that was a monster solution that is a work in progress 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Having as much amplitude as possible in the western ridge to crash the northern stream down, and a slower southern stream to allow a close enough phase. That's what we need-good trends back tonight. 

Going back the last few years, it always seems like the late night runs gave us the good news lol.

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22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And again, OMFG at the cold behind this storm on the euro. It gets well below -20C at 850, maybe -25. That would be low single digits, maybe zero in the city. 

It looks like post-storm cold will be even colder than this post New Years cold we're about to have.

 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

By then there will be insane ice on area waters. I’m planning to take a ton of pictures. Not sure if and when we ever see a run of cold like this again

I hope we break that 16 <32 record.

I'd be upset if we reach like 33 on Jan 8th when we could have a chance at this record.

We have to stay <32 through Jan 10 to tie it, the 11th to break it.

 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Still think it’s unlikely this gets much further west than 12/26/10 at best and right now I would put those chances at low.  There needs to be changes to really get this thing to be a classic DC-BOS event 

Baby steps since the 12z suite.  They add up after a while.  The gfs just took a big step imo but it's the gfs.  Let's see what the 12z suite shows.  The Euro was very close tn to something big.  We get a phase 12 hours sooner on that run and it's a major east coast storm. 

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EURO was subtly closer on 0Z.  Real subtle.

This thing still pops up far south and east of coast before it even starts to head north.  Maybe forces on it would be different if could develop closed circulation farther north and closer to coast.

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3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO was subtly closer on 0Z.  Real subtle.

This thing still pops up far south and east of coast before it even starts to head north.  Maybe forces on it would be different if could develop closed circulation farther north and closer to coast.

There was nothing subtle about this

12z top image

0z bottom image

ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_22.png

ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_20.png

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

There was nothing subtle about this

12z top image

0z bottom image

ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_22.png

ecmwf_z500_vort_noram_20.png

lol subtle ,  that didn't take long to correct huh.

Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with.

I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th.

Need am 1am start time and I'm good.

BTW look at the NEG off  the WC , that just has to sit back a bit more and the trough axis gets tugged 

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12 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

lol subtle ,  that didn't take long to correct huh.

Now you're literary 150 miles or so away with 5 days to play with.

I need a phase 6 hours earlier too so my Disney flight gets cxld at 8 am on the 4th.

Need am 1am start time and I'm good.

Not a bad looking hybrid howler since the storm gets going so far south in the Bahamas. I would like to see the EPS have the phase earlier in later runs to make this more interesting for us. We are going to need more of a transient Newfoundland block than the 0z had to get this far enough west.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/17123006/140.html

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Not a bad looking hybrid howler since the storm gets going so far south in the Bahamas. I would like to see the EPS have the phase earlier in later runs to make this more interesting for us. We are going to need more of a transient Newfoundland block than the 0z had to get this far enough west.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/17123006/140.html

Yeh , we need the phase 12 hours earlier and it will tuck.

It's close already and there's plenty of time 

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9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Yeh , we need the phase 12 hours earlier and it will tuck.

It's close already and there's plenty of time 

These transient type Newfoundland blocks have been overperforming in recent years as we get closer to model time. It may be related to the record SST warmth off the EC causing the models to frequently correct closer to the coast with storms in later runs. The question here is will it make it far enough west or mainly impact the eastern sections of LI up through New England instead?

midatl_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.e01bb29e35e2e7b7fd16a2f8be42b1b1.png

 

 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

WPC as of this morning still gives most of the Metro a sizable amount of precip for the coming week:

p168i.gif?1514559787

This is the WPC 7 day QPF pictured above from 24 hours ago - the new WPC 7 Day QPF released this morning pictured below

p168i.gif?1514638095

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These transient type Newfoundland blocks have been overperforming in recent years as we get closer to model time. It may be related to the record SST warmth off the EC causing the models to frequently correct closer to the coast with storms in later runs. The main question here is will it make it far enough west or scrape the Eastern sections of LI up through New England instead?

midatl_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.e01bb29e35e2e7b7fd16a2f8be42b1b1.png

 

 

 

 

 

The 2 SW s haven't even been fully sampled yet and the rule this year has been they end up stronger after they get grabbed.

The NEG off the PAC SW is further off the coast in just the last 24 hours.

If that continues that's going to run to the BM.

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