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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Closer to the coast but not close enough. The Southern energy was improved but the two pieces are still out of sync, the phase is too late.

I feel it’s not so much about any improvement or not in the southern shortwave as much as it is a complete lack of any assistance from the Atlantic to  slow the flow down even an iota and force a phase.

In this flow that shortwave could be as amped as you want it but if it doesn’t phase into the northern stream then it is going out to sea by a long ways.

Caveat here being that even with no Atlantic help, if the wave spacing became great enough that one could really amp up that would likely be our only other chance here.

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

EPS is ugly

nothing to get excited about.

The board or a few posters go into hog wild mode if the euro shows a big snow event for a model run or 3.

Where is that 360 hour snow map that showed I would have 42 inches on the ground by the end of next week.

As much as I enjoy snow....historically the past few years, December has been nothing special. 

I am below normal snow ytd as November was a fail too.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

18z GFS as bad as u can get with cold and dry followed by 2 cutters. I am hopeful at least one of them trends se in future runs, but as some have said the lack of blocking is hurting us.

18z was much closer to a phase than 12z. It wouldn’t have taken much for it to be an impactful storm for the NE

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m ready for El Niño again.  Some of the ENSO models show it may come next winter but most are near neutral.  I would think it’s highly unlikely we see a La Niña again although 2000-01 was a 3rd consecutive La Niña after a monster El Niño

I think the main problem so far is that we have not broken out of the dry pattern we have been in since the second half of summer - also this pattern is going to start relaxing sometime in January and when that begins to happen that will set the stage for a pattern changing storm ……….

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55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the main problem so far is that we have not broken out of the dry pattern we have been in since the second half of summer - also this pattern is going to start relaxing sometime in January and when that begins to happen that will set the stage for a pattern changing storm ……….

I agree. Definitely stuck in that dry pattern. Let’s hope the pattern changing storm isn’t a massive cutter. Also, anyone writing off this winter at the end of December is trolling. Think what happened to those calls in December 14. And further, the storm next week is not done. It’s not far from something big. We have seen big storms modeled on the coast off and then back a million times. This isn’t the same situation as tomorrow where the storm fizzled it’s a question of does it come in closer to the coast

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. 

We have been getting improvements. This was very close to a phase.

Cmc was also closer

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Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. 
Trough orientation is likewise much better. And again the evolution at h5 continues to improve via leaps and bounds.
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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:
27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. 

Trough orientation is likewise much better. And again the evolution at h5 continues to improve via leaps and bounds.

There's definitely a lot of potential here if things come together in time, and in all likelihood it will for someone-whether it's us or the Maritimes somewhere. There finally looks to be a deep amplification and some serious energy coming into play. All this cold we have and the still warm ocean can make for one ferocious combo. 

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A couple of things about the Ukie.  There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120.  Could this be a totally different solution?  Maybe a Miller B?  It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly.  Without 500mb maps we're just guessing.

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Just now, Rjay said:

A couple of things about the Ukie.  There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120.  Could this be a totally different solution?  Maybe a Miller B?  It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly.  Without 500mb maps we're just guessing.

It’s showing a very weak low, 999mb, looks like basically an open wave that forms on the polar front. Very odd evolution from that model

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A couple of things about the Ukie.  There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120.  Could this be a totally different solution?  Maybe a Miller B?  It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly.  Without 500mb maps we're just guessing.

Precip maps on Ryan’s new site should be out in a little while and that should give a good inclination as to where it really tracks, I’ll post when out 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Might just be the northern stream forming something on its own. Who knows. It's very likely different from the model consensus, because a phase and track like that near the coast would be a 970s bomb. 

That's kind of what I'm leaning towards. 

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