NJwx85 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Closer to the coast but not close enough. The Southern energy was improved but the two pieces are still out of sync, the phase is too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Massive surface storm organizing over the Bahamas, trough is just starting to go negative 00z Thursday. Whether my area or yours up North, counting on a winter storm for a big hit originating between Cuba and Haiti or near the Bahamas *usually* doesnt end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 EPS is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Closer to the coast but not close enough. The Southern energy was improved but the two pieces are still out of sync, the phase is too late. I feel it’s not so much about any improvement or not in the southern shortwave as much as it is a complete lack of any assistance from the Atlantic to slow the flow down even an iota and force a phase. In this flow that shortwave could be as amped as you want it but if it doesn’t phase into the northern stream then it is going out to sea by a long ways. Caveat here being that even with no Atlantic help, if the wave spacing became great enough that one could really amp up that would likely be our only other chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Rjay said: EPS is ugly nothing to get excited about. The board or a few posters go into hog wild mode if the euro shows a big snow event for a model run or 3. Where is that 360 hour snow map that showed I would have 42 inches on the ground by the end of next week. As much as I enjoy snow....historically the past few years, December has been nothing special. I am below normal snow ytd as November was a fail too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 18z GFS as bad as u can get with cold and dry followed by 2 cutters. I am hopeful at least one of them trends se in future runs, but as some have said the lack of blocking is hurting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: 18z GFS as bad as u can get with cold and dry followed by 2 cutters. I am hopeful at least one of them trends se in future runs, but as some have said the lack of blocking is hurting us. 18z was much closer to a phase than 12z. It wouldn’t have taken much for it to be an impactful storm for the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: 18z was much closer to a phase than 12z. It wouldn’t have taken much for it to be an impactful storm for the NE Yes it was. Upper level maps look much better. Without blocking though its all about timing now. We can still pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 18z GEFS is west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I’m ready for El Niño again. Some of the ENSO models show it may come next winter but most are near neutral. I would think it’s highly unlikely we see a La Niña again although 2000-01 was a 3rd consecutive La Niña after a monster El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m ready for El Niño again. Some of the ENSO models show it may come next winter but most are near neutral. I would think it’s highly unlikely we see a La Niña again although 2000-01 was a 3rd consecutive La Niña after a monster El Niño I think the main problem so far is that we have not broken out of the dry pattern we have been in since the second half of summer - also this pattern is going to start relaxing sometime in January and when that begins to happen that will set the stage for a pattern changing storm ………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think the main problem so far is that we have not broken out of the dry pattern we have been in since the second half of summer - also this pattern is going to start relaxing sometime in January and when that begins to happen that will set the stage for a pattern changing storm ………. I agree. Definitely stuck in that dry pattern. Let’s hope the pattern changing storm isn’t a massive cutter. Also, anyone writing off this winter at the end of December is trolling. Think what happened to those calls in December 14. And further, the storm next week is not done. It’s not far from something big. We have seen big storms modeled on the coast off and then back a million times. This isn’t the same situation as tomorrow where the storm fizzled it’s a question of does it come in closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 0z gfs already looking much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 And behind whatever develops next week, it looks absolutely brutally cold. 0z GFS drops 850s down to around -23C next Friday night. With some snow on the ground, that could be Central Park's chance to hit zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. We have been getting improvements. This was very close to a phase. Cmc was also closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Woah ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukie is near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. Trough orientation is likewise much better. And again the evolution at h5 continues to improve via leaps and bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukie is near the coastI bet the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Bottom line seems to be that southern energy and how fast it gets ahead of the main trough. It needs to slow down so that the storm doesn't form way out at sea, and the northern stream has a chance to phase in time. It looks a little slower at 0z on the GFS but some more improvements are needed. Trough orientation is likewise much better. And again the evolution at h5 continues to improve via leaps and bounds. There's definitely a lot of potential here if things come together in time, and in all likelihood it will for someone-whether it's us or the Maritimes somewhere. There finally looks to be a deep amplification and some serious energy coming into play. All this cold we have and the still warm ocean can make for one ferocious combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Analysis/data please or it gets deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Pretty crazy jump for one of my favorite models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A couple of things about the Ukie. There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120. Could this be a totally different solution? Maybe a Miller B? It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly. Without 500mb maps we're just guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: A couple of things about the Ukie. There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120. Could this be a totally different solution? Maybe a Miller B? It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly. Without 500mb maps we're just guessing. It’s showing a very weak low, 999mb, looks like basically an open wave that forms on the polar front. Very odd evolution from that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: A couple of things about the Ukie. There's no low off the SE coast at hr 120. Could this be a totally different solution? Maybe a Miller B? It's also possible the low forms at hr 126 and pulled north quickly. Without 500mb maps we're just guessing. Precip maps on Ryan’s new site should be out in a little while and that should give a good inclination as to where it really tracks, I’ll post when out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Might just be the northern stream forming something on its own. Who knows. It's very likely different from the model consensus, because a phase and track like that near the coast would be a 970s bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Might just be the northern stream forming something on its own. Who knows. It's very likely different from the model consensus, because a phase and track like that near the coast would be a 970s bomb. That's kind of what I'm leaning towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Gefs and cmc ensembles are further west compared to the op Low goes right outside the benchmark on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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