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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

GFS actually drops 6 to 7 inches in some spots monday night and tuesday. Looks a nice inverted trough, but we know we can't get too excited about a potential inverted trough at this range. Right now GGEM gives us nothing.

The euro was on board too but yeah this will shift all over the place i'm assuming

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS actually drops 6 to 7 inches in some spots monday night and tuesday. Looks a nice inverted trough, but we know we can't get too excited about a potential inverted trough at this range. Right now GGEM gives us nothing.

Coastal is close on the cmc

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German model is a nice hit I can’t post pix of it for some reason but it looks like a solid 3-6 inches with that track and intensity I wouldn’t be surprised if it trended to 6-12 inches. This is the coastal for Monday night into Tuesday. GFS next

GFS looks good almost phases the coastal with the northern stream. Looks good for at least 3 inches for our area.

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1 hour ago, Bluesnow said:

So if we get snow here in the NYC area the 29th into the 30th I have a question. This “record January thaw torch” was what?  6 or so total days of +10degree highs with 5 or 6 normal to BN days( assuming Monday and Tuesday are cold enough for snow) interspersed?  That IMO is one pitiful weak January Thaw!  Thank goodness by the way.

Wrong thread for it but Bluewave’s post in the discussion thread this morning really illustrates how strong a thaw this is.   Highest number of 50+ highs after a first week averaging 20 or lower.  

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

what do you expect with a day 8 forecast?

The Canadian does seem to have fallen off the last 3 weeks after it was doing exceptionally well from late November into early January.  I don’t have the verification numbers but just based on how poorly it seems it’s going to verify the pattern in the Day 10-15 period from what it showed several days ago I can’t imagkne the numbers are good

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