PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Spiking the football before it happens. Anyway, here is the SREF greatest probability of seeing 4 or more inches of snow, nowhere near the metro area as you can see and even there, it’s a low probability. :-) This is a very minor system This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County. I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread. You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/ HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. .5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. You whiffed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County. I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread. You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/ HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. .5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. You whiffed again. I whiffed before it even happened??? ROTFLMFAO!!! Did you look at the SREFs?? You know, the always JUICED SREFs?? They don’t even have the area reaching over 4 inches!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: I whiffed before it even happened??? ROTFLMFAO!!! Did you look at the SREFs?? You know, the always JUICED SREFs?? They don’t even have the area reaching over 4 inches!! Have you seen the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Have you seen the SREFS I love it. I whiffed over 24 hours before the storm is going to hit. That’s great. Ratios will be 10:1, best case. That’s not impressive for the SREF and what if the models back off tonight?? Like that’s never happened just before a storm right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hey snowman, beford you continue this back and forth, can you clear up the claims you made about people predicting snow last weekend? Its only appropriate to back up your claims here, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS issued a WWA for 2-4" for N NJ (West of the GSP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Next storm to watch is at the end of January PNA and AO are going to be favorable Euro shows a Miller b coastal which favored inland areas on the 12z run. Gfs and cmc show a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 2:23 PM, Snow88 said: Next storm to watch is at the end of January PNA and AO are going to be favorable Euro shows a Miller b coastal which favored inland areas on the 12z run. Gfs and cmc show a cutter Models are shifting east with the low Have to watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Models are shifting east with the low Have to watch this What’s the date(s) on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 12 hours ago, weathermedic said: What’s the date(s) on this? This storm is now a whiff on the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 GFS has a snowstorm the northeast on the 5th What a pattern depicted by the GFS Long ways out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GFS has a snowstorm the northeast on the 5th What a pattern depicted by the GFS Long ways out thoughThat'll verify lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:25 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is now 4 to 8 just away from NYC already and 1 to 3 on the coast. If 1 6 hour layer gets cleared up it`s 3 to 5 into NYC and into W Nassau County. I have been on this since Jan 9 - it`s posted in every thread. You posted it`s a fast flow clipper with nothing. Tell that to NNJ /Westchester/ HV / WCT/ EPA and just N of NYC 48 hours out. .5 - .7 now , the call was for a moderate snow event from 6 days ago. You whiffed again. Ouch PB, ☃️ got you on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Ouch PB, ☃️ got you on this one There was 4 in Washington NJ 6 in Vernon NJ and 8 in the HV So that 4 to 8 inch call was really good. Westchester and WCT nothing they got precip starved so that busted. I only had 1 to 3 in NYC into CNJ I got my 2 in Colts Neck and was not modeled anywhere. The city only saw .19 so the precip missed them and the RGEM and Euros s .5 were wrong When you see something 9 days away and a lot of it verifies you take it That miss in those 2 areas were because the precip never came east Now get ready for winter to return between Feb 3rd - 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: There was 4 in Washington NJ 6 in Vernon NJ and 8 in the HV So that 4 to 8 inch call was really good. Westchester and WCT nothing they got precip starved so that busted. I only had 1 to 3 in NYC into CNJ I got my 2 in Colts Neck and was not modeled anywhere. The city only saw .19 so the precip missed them and the RGEM and Euros s .5 were wrong When you see something 9 days away and a lot of it verifies you take it That miss in those 2 areas were because the precip never came east Now get ready for winter to return between Feb 3rd - 5th. Other than a few select areas, the widespread general concensus is that the storm was a bust for the area. Whether it be lack of QPF or warm temps, the fact remains it was a bust. NYC and LI saw nothing. Westchester and CT saw very little. Eastern Jersey maxed out at 1-2". Sure, some areas far to the NW saw a snowfall, but for a large portion of the area it was a bust. This is not even up for debate. The fact that you called for a snow event in the time frame was good, and hats off to you. But looking at the forecasts from before the storm and the result thereafter, the only reasonable conclusion is that for most of the area, it was a bust. Its not your fault and no reason to take it personally, it happens. The RGEM in particular was horrendous, as it repeatedly had CT and Westchester getting 6"+ of snow, and they got 1-2" at most. The models were awful, there isnt much any forecaster can do about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 CMC has the 29-30storm It develops another wave after the initial rainstorm German is similiar but warmer Looks good for the interior on both models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Other than a few select areas, the widespread general concensus is that the storm was a bust for the area. Whether it be lack of QPF or warm temps, the fact remains it was a bust. NYC and LI saw nothing. Westchester and CT saw very little. Eastern Jersey maxed out at 1-2". Sure, some areas far to the NW saw a snowfall, but for a large portion of the area it was a bust. This is not even up for debate. The fact that you called for a snow event in the time frame was good, and hats off to you. But looking at the forecasts from before the storm and the result thereafter, the only reasonable conclusion is that for most of the area, it was a bust. Its not your fault and no reason to take it personally, it happens. The RGEM in particular was horrendous, as it repeatedly had CT and Westchester getting 6"+ of snow, and they got 1-2" at most. The models were awful, there isnt much any forecaster can do about that. Agree ,this busted completely along 95 and even just N of the city . i was texting with Nor'easter the night of the event and said , the precip is not coming east , but that's too late. Only NNJ to the LHV did well . AG never liked it for NYC I thought he was going to do as well as Colts Neck , they didn't it all felll apart Happy for the HV guys though , the last 2 favored us so we had one to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Agree ,this busted completely along 95 and even just N of the city . i was texting with Nor'easter the night of the event and said , the precip is not coming east , but that's too late. Only NNJ to the LHV did well . AG never liked it for NYC I thought he was going to do as well as Colts Neck , they didn't it all felll apart Happy for the HV guys though , the last 2 favored us so we had one to give. How was your trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 5 hours ago, North and West said: How was your trip? Still here. 75 , so it's been good man. Get ready for winters return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Still here. 75 , so it's been good man. Get ready for winters return About the same temp up here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: About the same temp up here today Frame it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Gefs are very close with the 28-29 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18Z GFS and ensembles are interesting Day 5-6. I’m not sure we can get the air mass cold enough here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z GFS and ensembles are interesting Day 5-6. I’m not sure we can get the air mass cold enough here though It's cold enough on the mean for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Euro now has that system develop post rain Jan 29-30, actually drops close 6-9” in a narrow band, from HV to Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro now has that system develop post rain Jan 29-30, actually drops close 6-9” in a narrow band, from HV to Long Island Looks a bit like the CMC depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Not much to discuss, but the 12z GFS has rain to snow on 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks a bit like the CMC depiction. Gfs is similia r Watch the 28th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not much to discuss, but the 12z GFS has rain to snow on 2/2. Much of that falls Monday night & Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 16 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Not much to discuss, but the 12z GFS has rain to snow on 2/2. Yanks you forgot Monday night' system it drops 3-5 inches for our whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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