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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Agreed. Have a hard time believing NYC rains in this event. 

Verbatim it looks like the low digs so far south and west of us that tons of warm air come in ahead of the low. That seems to be where the rain comes from. But it’s way too early obviously for anything definitive. GFS and Canadian have some snow showers with this basically. 

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That makes no sense on that track, if the storm hits the Cape that's a snow track for western Long Island- north or south shore.

Millenium storm came ashore near Islip and was all snow here.

 

I never said the map was right. Just pointed out what it had. Could be right or wrong at this point, but pleased that there is a potential storm.

Curious as to Don and Forky's thoughts are on this storm. However may be too early to opine.

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim it looks like the low digs so far south and west of us that tons of warm air come in ahead of the low. That seems to be where the rain comes from. But it’s way too early obviously for anything definitive. GFS and Canadian have some snow showers with this basically. 

Is that a known bias of the Euro?

Believe it or not with how well it's been doing recently, I'd look at the NAM over the Euro or GFS once we're within 48 hours of the event.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps are very impressive

They are too amped I think.  At least the bigger members.  I said if you take E34 and take everything south of TN/GA and move it west 100 miles and then take everything north of the NC/SC line and shift it east 100 that’s probably your most likely situation if this really cranks.  Some of the tracks look like 1/87 shifted 100 miles west which simply doesn’t happen in the real world

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They are too amped I think.  At least the bigger members.  I said if you take E34 and take everything south of TN/GA and move it west 100 miles and then take everything north of the NC/SC line and shift it east 100 that’s probably your most likely situation if this really cranks.  Some of the tracks look like 1/87 shifted 100 miles west which simply doesn’t happen in the real world

Majority are east of the op and colder

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Majority are east of the op and colder

There are just tons of various evolutions in there.  Some are a phase.  Others are no phase with the northern piece blowing up.  Others seem to be north piece does nothing and southern blows up and even a few more just look unrealistic 

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29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs wants no part of a storm. Just a dying clipper

Once the GFS locks in at this range (several days out), it's usually very, very stubborn in holding similar-looking solutions. Provided the EURO has a better idea with this system, the GFS will change course dramatically in a couple of days to catch on.

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Gfs is honestly the worst model of all 4 majors (euro, uk, canadian) I personally think the navgem is better than the gfs and that’s a shame cause the gfs used to be way better. Not saying euro is good either. The people that are saying that the gfs doesn’t show a storm it does actually but it goes out to sea. I would give it until Monday until we could get a really clear consensus. Enjoy your weekend folks!

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11 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Gfs is honestly the worst model of all 4 majors (euro, uk, canadian) I personally think the navgem is better than the gfs and that’s a shame cause the gfs used to be way better. Not saying euro is good either. The people that are saying that the gfs doesn’t show a storm it does actually but it goes out to sea. I would give it until Monday until we could get a really clear consensus. Enjoy your weekend folks!

AVN was better than GFS but only went out to 144 hr.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I guess we should expect a blizzard then.

If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model 

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28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model 

This setup is one though where the northern stream is less likely to overpower and destroy the setup which is why I think this time the Euro may end up correct

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If anything the Euro has been horrible this winter with storms. Like off the charts bad. It has been the one wrong the majority of the time and caving to the other models as the storm approaches. It kills me to say that because I used to love the Euro but it definitely isn’t what it used to be, that is for sure. I have zero trust in what it shows for storms and treat it with extreme skepticism now, as should everyone else. Struggling this winter is an understatement for that model 

Every model has been struggling

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