January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

Last nights Euro was a timing issue. That lead shortwave that I spoke about yesterday is even further out ahead of the trough. Secondly, that piece is a lot stronger than the previous 00z run. This is why yesterday I said models might struggle with what pieces to focus on and that we could see some major swings.

 Im not sure I agree that "models are struggling with the lead shortwave". Most are in agreement and generally have been that this feature stays out ahead of the main players yielding a solution to the East. Obviously there were a couple solutions yesterday that were more favorable with that sw but the trend is for a faster lead sw and less interaction. Obviously time for that to change but we have taken a few steps back from this being a what the Euro from 12z yesterday was showing.   

 

Eta: Even going back 36 hours to guidance that showed the slp closer to the coast there is a dual low sort of look on CMC, Euro, and GFS which is reflecting that lead sw to the east of the main ns players.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Im not sure I agree that "models are struggling with the lead shortwave". Most are in agreement and generally have been that this feature stays out ahead of the main players yielding a solution to the East. Obviously there were a couple solutions yesterday that were more favorable with that sw but the trend is for a faster lead sw and less interaction. Obviously time for that to change but we have taken a few steps back from this being a what the Euro from 12z yesterday was showing. 

 

 

That's why I like to stick with ensemble means after 120 hrs. OP runs are notorious for big jumps from run to run after 120 hrs. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

That's why I like to stick with ensemble means after 120 hrs. OP runs are notorious for big jumps from run to run after 120 hrs. 

Even the ens mean 500 anomalies have that lead sw running out ahead. I posted elsewhere we either need that to slow down for the fantasy triple phase possibility OR we can hope it speeds up enough or just fizzles out to allow for the lagging ns energy more spacing to potentially amplify. But then we are back to a clipper look......the pattern continues either way no?

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Even the ens mean 500 anomalies have that lead sw running out ahead. I posted elsewhere we either need that to slow down for the fantasy triple phase possibility OR we can hope it speeds up enough or just fizzles out to allow for the lagging ns energy more spacing to potentially amplify. But then we are back to a clipper look......the pattern continues either way no?

 

Absent strong Atlantic blocking, we need the transient block near Newfoundland to get the job done. We got lucky in Feb 13 and it worked especially for eastern areas. 

You can see how much OP runs shift around on details like that beyond 5 days out. The UKMET and Euro switched places 0z. But I am not sure if this is just the UK lagging behind the Euro by a run.

 

 

[CIK62]

The EURO added a protective swath of BN precipitation along the entire EC, that is hundreds of miles wide, whereas the previous run had the eastern most coastline in the AN precipitation zone.   Little else changed on this run---whole country is BN precipitation over the next 7 days, less the Pacific NW.

GFS and CMC  are too far east also.   NAVGEM must be included here too---even if I would not trust it to steer our Navy clear of danger.  lol

Better Luck Next Runs.

[JetsPens87]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent strong Atlantic blocking, we need the transient block near Newfoundland to get the job done. We got lucky in Feb 13 and it worked especially for eastern areas. 

You can see how much OP runs shift around on details like that beyond 5 days out. The UKMET and Euro switched places 0z. But I am not sure if this is just the UK lagging behind the Euro by a run.

 

 

Exactly, like I said the other day, it’s not so much a matter of mishandling any one feature, it’s a matter of what if any Atlantic blocking there is to slow down the individual features and force a phase or not. That blocking has been hard to come by in recent history and it will be all about timing with any potential transient block.

Any help from the Atlantic could yield some sort of phase, whether it be in time for this sub forum or not would be the question.

No help from the Atlantic would yield shortwaves running amuck and possibly portend the solutions we saw come in last night with the lead shortwave making a run for Bermuda without any semblance of a chance of phasing.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent strong Atlantic blocking, we need the transient block near Newfoundland to get the job done. We got lucky in Feb 13 and it worked especially for eastern areas. 

You can see how much OP runs shift around on details like that beyond 5 days out. The UKMET and Euro switched places 0z. But I am not sure if this is just the UK lagging behind the Euro by a run.

 

 

 

Chris, I think the issue is on the west coast , that negative crashing into the ridge just kicks the entire trough axis east. 

 

I`m not even luke warm on this yet unless that SW in the PAC starts to sit back in the guidance. 

[NEG NAO]

WPC as of this morning still gives most of the Metro a sizable amount of precip for the coming week:

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Chris, I think the issue is on the west coast , that negative crashing into the ridge just kicks the entire trough axis east. 

 

I`m not even luke warm on this yet unless that SW in the PAC starts to sit back in the guidance. 

I think the main challenge continues to be the Atlantic. There is only so much you can do in  La Nina with a mostly neutral to positive NAO. So you need to get one of these lucky transient blocks near Newfoundland as a substitute.

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

Models are terrible last couple yrs. All should simply hold their fire till 36 hrs out - if that. Makes public needlessly more anxiety prone than already are! Would really love to see a % chart in how correct all of them are a week out! Laughable to be sure. 

 

 

It's also telling that theres just so little activity across the country. A week ago the gfs had snow cover from Oklahoma to SC and everywhere in north by this time. Now other than this clipper and the lake effect there's really no other activity going on or in the near future

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the main challenge continues to be the Atlantic. There is only so much you can do in  La Nina with a mostly neutral to positive NAO. So you need to get one of these lucky transient blocks near Newfoundland as a substitute.

 

Yeh , but if the axis is too far and find a block you will pull that west into New England. I want this to kiss Hatteras like the UKMET and grind north.

It is light years away and nothing at day 6 ever looks the same by day 2 , so there is time.

I just want to see the PAC vort get hung up a bit and then the poleward push of the PNA far enough west will bring the height falls all the way up and closer the coast. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, even last February we got lucky with the transient Newfoundland block for the snowstorm on the 9th.  The brief  NAO drop in a mostly positive pattern later in January was all we needed to get the ball rolling in the right direction. 

 

I don`t think this one is all that close yet .I would love to be wrong , but the this would kick that wide right.

 

Not invested right now. 

 

 

 

[mikem81]

Looks like we will be wasting a lot of cold air next week

[jm1220]

Progressive pattern and mistimed energy will mean no system or one that goes way out to sea. Pretty cut and dry. Also, no blocking means the flow can’t slow down and help a phase occur. Still time to watch it but the overnight trend towards further spaced apart energy wasn’t good obviously. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No Newfoundland block on that chart. Storm makes wide right. La Nina and +NAO combinations can be a tough pattern for snowlovers without a dose of luck.

You would need an improved version of this.

 

 

 

[Zelocita Weather]

Stick a Forkyfork in this one...;

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Looks like we will be wasting a lot of cold air next week

Cold will probably be around for most of January, I find it hard to believe we would go that whole month without a storm. 

It's just going to be a very long wait. 

[snow1]

To many things going against us with this pattern. Cold and dry is the word. 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Stick a Forkyfork in this one...;

5 days out ? Take a break

[MJO812]

Gfs members are all west of the op

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

5 days out ? Take a break

Until we're 3 days out we can't say much definitively but when all the models have backed off its probably a very small chance we see anything. Also most of the models haven't really shown a hit for more than 1 or 2 runs if at all

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs members are all west of the op

On benchmark or slightly west

[snow1]

Gefs are still west but no where near to give us anything

[NJwx85]

12z GFS OP run was actually not bad at all at H5. We need that shortwave to be back near Arkansas instead of in the Gulf.

[NJwx85]

The Euro is holding that lead energy back, much improved over last run

[NJwx85]

The Southern shortwave is a lot more amplified this run, but the Northern piece is weaker and a bit more removed, so the reshuffling continues. 

[weatherfreeeeak]

Storm or no storm, man do I miss that Euro PBP

[NJwx85]

Major changes continue with the amplitude of the Southern shortwave. Again we need that to be as slow and amped up as possible.

vs

[NJwx85]

Going to be a very close call, storm is organizing in the Northern Gulf

[NJwx85]

Massive surface storm organizing over the Bahamas, trough is just starting to go negative 00z Thursday.