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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This system is the most vigorous NS energy dig we've seen the entire season. In a year where we are NS dominant, this one bears serious watching. Probably the best potential thus far aside from "Bomb Cyclone" especially PHL points N and E with best chance being NYC-BOS for right now.

 

I like this event.....

And Ralph when we look at the thaw period  Days 3 thru 8 are well BN again, but take a look at what I have been posting on over the last week as to why the warm up will be only plus a few and not a torch.

The new day 8 to 12 vs the old day 12 to 16.

HP pressing down into what looks like ridging has HP from a cold Canada and never allows the ridging to center itself in the SE,  instead the center is from 40 N.

And here is the correction.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_8 (1).png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.png

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47 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro develops next weeks storm much sooner, haven’t looked st 500 but I’m assuming the trough goes negative much sooner, along with stronger southern S

This run succeeded two prior runs that showed very little impact e.g., < 0.10” QPF for much of the area. I would like to see more consistency before I buy into what is currently an outlier solution. The ECMWF struggled badly with the last storm. I would not be surprised if its 12z solution is quite different from the 0z one.

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Unless Central MD is the new East coast, 'verbatim' that run gave credence for a closed low well West of DC/PHL/NYC and not a coastal low. Evolution is suspect anyway but at least it has the digging sw. Thats my takeaway.

2bcfc4d5a26e0e8c8e36e10d35f18c2f.jpg

Eurowx placed the SLP right off the coast of NJ in that time frame. That's why I said it was on the coast. Not that it really matters right now.

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THis is completely non scientific but it does hold some weight. This is one of those winters (of which we have had many In the last decade) where it just wants to snow. We seem to have feast or famine winters. Pure dead raters and like this winter so far, bonanzas. Based solely on this I would say we snow Big next week. 

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The Euro has that bomb look for next week' system I wouldn' be surprised if we get a bombogenesis system roll through with tones of snow. And I mean over a foot of snow especially if the low closes off around our latitude and slows the system down! Love this potential because it' so under rated!

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25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

You might get lucky. The heaviest looks to be after that

That's what I'm hoping for. We're the first flight out - Southern Caribbean cruise! - so I look forward to missing a few cold days here. If there's a good snow, I'll miss it, but the warmth will be terrific.

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I'm definitely interested in the Tue event, but as usual a lot has to break in our favor. We need a sharply digging, moderately progressive trough where the H5 low can close off in a favorable spot for big snow in this area. The trough can still be sharp, but if we don't see mid levels close off it will be a lighter, fast moving event, or it can be too progressive and booted out. The other extreme is what the Euro showed 2 days ago with a ridiculously deep trough that formed the low too far west and drove warm air in. 

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9 hours ago, Enigma said:

00z Euro very close to something big around these parts. Would take very little for H5 to close off and have SLP tracking NW into CT with decent snow for NNJ into SE NY.

Slow moving system?

 

I wonder if the storm last week will end up being the biggest of the season- I don't think so.

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30 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

That type of thinking, though obviously infused by perceptions of this winter's pattern, also shows how spoiled we've been this century. 

It's because our new climate has higher big precip events so if it gets timed with cold air just right we cash in.

 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Technically speaking its mostly rain according to the snow map posted in the NE forum. Obviously way too early to know how this plays out.

Please don't post wrong information. The NE coastal folks rain as the system cranks and heads for the canal. For NNJ and SE NY, snowfall is 6-12 in. on the Euro.

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12 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Please don't post wrong information. The NE coastal folks rain as the system cranks and heads for the canal. For NNJ and SE NY, snowfall is 6-12 in. on the Euro.

But that should be all snow here on the south shore of western Long Island.  We've had systems that came onshore in Suffolk County that were all snow here.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ag3 said:

And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain.

That makes no sense on that track, if the storm hits the Cape that's a snow track for western Long Island- north or south shore.

Millenium storm came ashore near Islip and was all snow here.

 

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