PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This system is the most vigorous NS energy dig we've seen the entire season. In a year where we are NS dominant, this one bears serious watching. Probably the best potential thus far aside from "Bomb Cyclone" especially PHL points N and E with best chance being NYC-BOS for right now. I like this event..... And Ralph when we look at the thaw period Days 3 thru 8 are well BN again, but take a look at what I have been posting on over the last week as to why the warm up will be only plus a few and not a torch. The new day 8 to 12 vs the old day 12 to 16. HP pressing down into what looks like ridging has HP from a cold Canada and never allows the ridging to center itself in the SE, instead the center is from 40 N. And here is the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro develops next weeks storm much sooner, haven’t looked st 500 but I’m assuming the trough goes negative much sooner, along with stronger southern S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Keep going guys, I love what I am hearing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro develops next weeks storm much sooner, haven’t looked st 500 but I’m assuming the trough goes negative much sooner, along with stronger southern S This run succeeded two prior runs that showed very little impact e.g., < 0.10” QPF for much of the area. I would like to see more consistency before I buy into what is currently an outlier solution. The ECMWF struggled badly with the last storm. I would not be surprised if its 12z solution is quite different from the 0z one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Does the EURO give us snow in next weeks system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Does the EURO give us snow in next weeks system? Yeah looked like several inches at quick glance but this setup is going to evolve a ton before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah looked like several inches at quick glance but this setup is going to evolve a ton before then Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Unless Central MD is the new East coast, 'verbatim' that run gave credence for a closed low well West of DC/PHL/NYC and not a coastal low. Evolution is suspect anyway but at least it has the digging sw. Thats my takeaway. Eurowx placed the SLP right off the coast of NJ in that time frame. That's why I said it was on the coast. Not that it really matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 THis is completely non scientific but it does hold some weight. This is one of those winters (of which we have had many In the last decade) where it just wants to snow. We seem to have feast or famine winters. Pure dead raters and like this winter so far, bonanzas. Based solely on this I would say we snow Big next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The Euro has that bomb look for next week' system I wouldn' be surprised if we get a bombogenesis system roll through with tones of snow. And I mean over a foot of snow especially if the low closes off around our latitude and slows the system down! Love this potential because it' so under rated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I think I asked this in banter yesterday, but how does the 7 a.m. hour look out of EWR tomorrow? That's when my flight is. Hoping to catch a window in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, North and West said: I think I asked this in banter yesterday, but how does the 7 a.m. hour look out of EWR tomorrow? That's when my flight is. Hoping to catch a window in this storm. You might get lucky. The heaviest looks to be after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: You might get lucky. The heaviest looks to be after that That's what I'm hoping for. We're the first flight out - Southern Caribbean cruise! - so I look forward to missing a few cold days here. If there's a good snow, I'll miss it, but the warmth will be terrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Is the Tuesday-Wednesday system in the Midwest about the slowest-moving upper-air feature you've ever seen? You'd think something more substantial would eventually pop at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 00z Euro very close to something big around these parts. Would take very little for H5 to close off and have SLP tracking NW into CT with decent snow for NNJ into SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 hours ago, Enigma said: 00z Euro very close to something big around these parts. Would take very little for H5 to close off and have SLP tracking NW into CT with decent snow for NNJ into SE NY. It was still a big hit, 6+ for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm definitely interested in the Tue event, but as usual a lot has to break in our favor. We need a sharply digging, moderately progressive trough where the H5 low can close off in a favorable spot for big snow in this area. The trough can still be sharp, but if we don't see mid levels close off it will be a lighter, fast moving event, or it can be too progressive and booted out. The other extreme is what the Euro showed 2 days ago with a ridiculously deep trough that formed the low too far west and drove warm air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 hours ago, Enigma said: 00z Euro very close to something big around these parts. Would take very little for H5 to close off and have SLP tracking NW into CT with decent snow for NNJ into SE NY. Slow moving system? I wonder if the storm last week will end up being the biggest of the season- I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Slow moving system? I wonder if the storm last week will end up being the biggest of the season- I don't think so. That type of thinking, though obviously infused by perceptions of this winter's pattern, also shows how spoiled we've been this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That type of thinking, though obviously infused by perceptions of this winter's pattern, also shows how spoiled we've been this century. It's because our new climate has higher big precip events so if it gets timed with cold air just right we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Nao is tanking this weekend. Hopefully this will surprise many with this upcoming potential. Paul said models will probably lose this storm just to find it again. Gfs and cmc were horrible let’s see What the euro says I have a feeling February will be a big month for big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Euro is a big hit Technically speaking its mostly rain according to the snow map posted in the NE forum. Obviously way too early to know how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Technically speaking its mostly rain according to the snow map posted in the NE forum. Obviously way too early to know how this plays out. Track seemed good though, would have thought it would lead to a snowier solution. Still early regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Technically speaking its mostly rain according to the snow map posted in the NE forum. Obviously way too early to know how this plays out. Please don't post wrong information. The NE coastal folks rain as the system cranks and heads for the canal. For NNJ and SE NY, snowfall is 6-12 in. on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Please don't post wrong information. The NE coastal folks rain as the system cranks and heads for the canal. For NNJ and SE NY, snowfall is 6-12 in. on the Euro. And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, ag3 said: And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain. Gfs is east and Euro is west I like where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is east and Euro is west I like where we stand Agreed. Have a hard time believing NYC rains in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, Enigma said: Please don't post wrong information. The NE coastal folks rain as the system cranks and heads for the canal. For NNJ and SE NY, snowfall is 6-12 in. on the Euro. But that should be all snow here on the south shore of western Long Island. We've had systems that came onshore in Suffolk County that were all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, ag3 said: And nothing for NYC metro on the Euro but rain. That makes no sense on that track, if the storm hits the Cape that's a snow track for western Long Island- north or south shore. Millenium storm came ashore near Islip and was all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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