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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Something doesn’t seem right here though, I looked earlier and that’s not what it looked like. Maybe I was seeing things.

I had trouble seeing the 12z UKMET before for some reason myself but the new 0z run is definitely a cutter, it tracks the low over Syracuse on Saturday 

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16 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Don’t look now but the latest GFS brings the low over Phl and then redevelops out towards the Cape. 

Not far away at all (if not already there) from a much colder solution for far NW sections.

Euro is well west, it corrected it's burp run from 12z, UKMET is also west along with the GGEM.  GFS is on the eastern envelope of guidance for now

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39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is well west, it corrected it's burp run from 12z, UKMET is also west along with the GGEM.  GFS is on the eastern envelope of guidance for now

Can you post the 12z euro vs the 0z for comparison? Thanks. 

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16 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

A little bit far out... but GFS may try to pull something big for that Miller B mid next week... will at least be something to track

Odd solution verbatim to me... still gets the job done. Definitely a clear signal for something in that range 

Looks very '78.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It shows a Miller B developing too late for our area, New England gets a lot of snow out of it though. Around an inch or less for the metro verbatim 

 

This is another moderate snowstorm for the city on east and into New England 

Obv Coastal NJ looks good and posters as far south as Philly should take interest because that ridge axis means business.

This probably gets lost in the guidance only to get picked up really close in

So don't get too excited when the models lose it,  they could easily find it close in again.

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1 hour ago, Nibor said:

0z Euro blows up a monster for the Jan 17-18 time frame. Verbatim a mixed bag of precip but give credence to the idea of a storm on the coast. 0z GFS and 0z GGEM have a lighter all snow event that doesn't dig the energy as far south.

Every model is on board for a storm. PNA looks very impressive.

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0z Euro blows up a monster for the Jan 17-18 time frame. Verbatim a mixed bag of precip but give credence to the idea of a storm on the coast. 0z GFS and 0z GGEM have a lighter all snow event that doesn't dig the energy as far south.

Unless Central MD is the new East coast, 'verbatim' that run gave credence for a closed low well West of DC/PHL/NYC and not a coastal low. Evolution is suspect anyway but at least it has the digging sw. Thats my takeaway.

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This is another moderate snowstorm for the city on east and into New England 

Obv Coastal NJ looks good and posters as far south as Philly should take interest because that ridge axis means business.

This probably gets lost in the guidance only to get picked up really close in

So don't get too excited when the models lose it,  they could easily find it close in again.

This system is the most vigorous NS energy dig we've seen the entire season. In a year where we are NS dominant, this one bears serious watching. Probably the best potential thus far aside from "Bomb Cyclone" especially PHL points N and E with best chance being NYC-BOS for right now.

 

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