snowman19 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: Something doesn’t seem right here though, I looked earlier and that’s not what it looked like. Maybe I was seeing things. I had trouble seeing the 12z UKMET before for some reason myself but the new 0z run is definitely a cutter, it tracks the low over Syracuse on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Negative AO block is showing up on models as a saturation effect of the higher atmosphere. This is a really strong strengthening signal for future model runs. Could be a >+500dm block after January 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Don’t look now but the latest GFS brings the low over Phl and then redevelops out towards the Cape. Not far away at all (if not already there) from a much colder solution for far NW sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Don’t look now but the latest GFS brings the low over Phl and then redevelops out towards the Cape. Not far away at all (if not already there) from a much colder solution for far NW sections. Euro is well west, it corrected it's burp run from 12z, UKMET is also west along with the GGEM. GFS is on the eastern envelope of guidance for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is well west, it corrected it's burp run from 12z, UKMET is also west along with the GGEM. GFS is on the eastern envelope of guidance for now Can you post the 12z euro vs the 0z for comparison? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 For future weenie references Cowen added the German model ICON to tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nams got a wicked ice storm too for interior NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 A little bit far out... but GFS may try to pull something big for that Miller B mid next week... will at least be something to track Odd solution verbatim to me... still gets the job done. Definitely a clear signal for something in that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: A little bit far out... but GFS may try to pull something big for that Miller B mid next week... will at least be something to track Odd solution verbatim to me... still gets the job done. Definitely a clear signal for something in that range Looks very '78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12z EURO is way east. Don't have temps, but it looks like a mix down to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 EPS followed op.. significant ice possibility for parts of NNJ/NEPA, NECT, and Hudson Valley northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Is this a threat for Sunday? Any chance for a further east progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Is this a threat for Sunday? Any chance for a further east progression? No, it all ends before noon on Saturday then clearing skies. Sunny on Sunday but cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: 12z EURO is way east. Don't have temps, but it looks like a mix down to the city. It does not have mix down to the city or even Rockland/Bergen. It gets into Orange County and cuts off. It has all rain south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nam agree with euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It does not have mix down to the city or even Rockland/Bergen. It gets into Orange County and cuts off. It has all rain south of there I wouldn't be shocked to see it come more east due to less phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 hours ago, RDRY said: Looks very '78. Ha. That would make this winter automically in the top 3 of my lifetime. It’s very thread the needle. Until we have more support on board it’s just a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’ll be in southern Vermont just under 2k. I’ll take lots of pictures to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Did GFS show anything with that Tues/wed storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Did GFS show anything with that Tues/wed storm.. It showed a late-blossoming Miller B. The NYC area and nearby suburbs received around an inch of snow. Parts of New England received 8"-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Did GFS show anything with that Tues/wed storm.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ https://weather.us/model-charts/standard http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=pres®ion=us&t=4p&expanddiv=hide_bar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2018011018_EUS_GFS_SFC_WINDS_SLP http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Did GFS show anything with that Tues/wed storm.. It shows a Miller B developing too late for our area, New England gets a lot of snow out of it though. Around an inch or less for the metro verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hopefully we can get it to dig below us an slow down a little. Long ways out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It shows a Miller B developing too late for our area, New England gets a lot of snow out of it though. Around an inch or less for the metro verbatim This is another moderate snowstorm for the city on east and into New England Obv Coastal NJ looks good and posters as far south as Philly should take interest because that ridge axis means business. This probably gets lost in the guidance only to get picked up really close in So don't get too excited when the models lose it, they could easily find it close in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 0z Euro blows up a monster for the Jan 17-18 time frame. Verbatim a mixed bag of precip but give credence to the idea of a storm on the coast. 0z GFS and 0z GGEM have a lighter all snow event that doesn't dig the energy as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Nibor said: 0z Euro blows up a monster for the Jan 17-18 time frame. Verbatim a mixed bag of precip but give credence to the idea of a storm on the coast. 0z GFS and 0z GGEM have a lighter all snow event that doesn't dig the energy as far south. Every model is on board for a storm. PNA looks very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 0z Euro blows up a monster for the Jan 17-18 time frame. Verbatim a mixed bag of precip but give credence to the idea of a storm on the coast. 0z GFS and 0z GGEM have a lighter all snow event that doesn't dig the energy as far south.Unless Central MD is the new East coast, 'verbatim' that run gave credence for a closed low well West of DC/PHL/NYC and not a coastal low. Evolution is suspect anyway but at least it has the digging sw. Thats my takeaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This is another moderate snowstorm for the city on east and into New England Obv Coastal NJ looks good and posters as far south as Philly should take interest because that ridge axis means business. This probably gets lost in the guidance only to get picked up really close in So don't get too excited when the models lose it, they could easily find it close in again.This system is the most vigorous NS energy dig we've seen the entire season. In a year where we are NS dominant, this one bears serious watching. Probably the best potential thus far aside from "Bomb Cyclone" especially PHL points N and E with best chance being NYC-BOS for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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