JetsPens87 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Continue to watch next weekend... Signal for high pressure to be strong and well timed with a potential strong vort along the east coast. Ridge axis out west is not great but still favorable. It could indeed be an inland runner/late redeveloper or coastal hugger with no blocking but definitely one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs doesn't even show a thaw. Just 2 day warmup. 12z GFS has the thaw starting around the 18th and continuing until the end of the run. Most things indicate that we're going to have an extended warm pattern in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z GFS has the thaw starting around the 18th and continuing until the end of the run. Most things indicate that we're going to have an extended warm pattern in late January. But that would be pushed back again. Most Januarys have a thaw, but it doesn't have to be extended or super warm. Still too far out to tell the extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Euro still wants no part of any snow next week. 4 day thaw with rain and then turning colder around day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro still wants no part of any snow next week. 4 day thaw with rain and then turning colder around day 9 Euro shows some snow for Monday It also tries to form a coastal after the lakes cutter. We should still keep an eye out on that storm. I posted this in the January thread but the Euro now shows the NAO going negative next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 This isn't a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfs looks very good for the 16th It's offshore but h5 looks good. Thats the storm to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Is the thaw still showing up in a real way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 RGEM jackpots queens with 2" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gfs unloads the arctic after the cutter with a storm threat. CMC also has some snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Still a pretty strong modeled high pressure sitting there in Canada for the end of the week storm, wondering if we see any correction towards a somewhat muted mild up at least for some sections. Still would not be entirely surprised as I’ve been saying to see a real late redeveloper come along in the modeling as time progresses, though that fact does not preclude the expected warmup at all. Like I had said a few days ago, there was hardly any way to envision this as a wintry event here. As the pac jet undercuts the western ridge and the blocking deteriorates, that strong vort is allowed to wind up and pump heights out ahead of it in combination with the WAR there is no other choice but for this to cut. With that said, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that this is not a wintry event for most if not all of this subforum. Meanwhile, those that are truly warm sectored can look forward to the outside possibility of some convective activity as models are showing a pretty decent pwat response and a modest low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs unloads the arctic after the cutter with a storm threat. CMC also has some snow for the coast. Storm threat may be there but with the pattern shift and changing pacific, the arctic is not truly unloaded after the cutter, yes it will cool back down but it’s short lived and not a very sharp shot this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Storm threat may be there but with the pattern shift and changing pacific, the arctic is not truly unloaded after the cutter, yes it will cool back down but it’s short lived and not a very sharp shot this go around. There is barely a thaw on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Impressive warm sector and maybe 2"+ of rain, could see some convective activity, wouldn't that be something. Gotta love these rapid, extreme pattern shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There is barely a thaw on the GFS It’s there, but brought on mainly by the changing pattern the next couple weeks where storms will cut and bring in the warmer air followed by modest cool downs afterwards. The source region seems more Canadian than true arctic airmasses. My disagreement with your statement lies in the “arctic is unloaded” after the cutter part. Not saying at all that we are going to have a long duration thaw, just that I would set my expectations lower based on where and how the cold air is delivered in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 RGEM still loves today's event with over 2 inches showing in some parts of Queens. Most other guidance not biting really...UKMET is close but seems to develop more of the snow SE of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Major ice storm for interior on euro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This would be a borderline scary scenario if it happens for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Major ice storm for interior on euro now Deep thunder has a snowstorm for the interior. The models are starting to catch on to the big PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Deep thunder has a snowstorm for the interior. The models are starting to catch on to the big PNA spike. Can u post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Deep thunder has a snowstorm for the interior. The models are starting to catch on to the big PNA spike.Pls post!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Of course the weather is supposed to be rotten, Friday we're moving my 91 year old father in law in to his new place in Danbury and Sunday moving my daughters into the dorm at college in Poughkeepsie. A frozen storm would be wonderful to have to drive around and work through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can u post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I could be wrong but that sim reflectivity doesn’t look like it resolves ice or mixed precip. A good portion of that could be ice rather than a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It’s a CAD setup. Ice > Snow. In any event, they almost never pan out. Can only remember one ice storm warning here in the last fifteen years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Gfs did trend colder for far interior areas, strong icing event up towards central and maybe parts of southern New England. Canadian is warmer. It would take a lot of work to get frozen closer to us but regardless we'll still warm sector on Friday, probably up to 60 or so with possible convection from the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 UKMET at 12z, didnt see it mentioned develops our LP Well south of other guidance, cant see temp maps but would most likely be snow interior, even close for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 just off the coast, this looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: just off the coast, this looks good to me Something doesn’t seem right here though, I looked earlier and that’s not what it looked like. Maybe I was seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The block over AK on the 00Z GFS At 384 is just stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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