JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: First i should heed my own advice, but i urge caution this season out past 5 days. Too many 180s this year. With that said, irt to next weekend, GEPS has a coastal look with HP in Maine. 100% ideal? No. Decent signal to watch? Absolutely. I like the +PNA, -AO, war look. It could work. Exactly what I was alluding to, there is high pressure in Canada floating around and that 500 look is just too convoluted in my opinion, it bears some watching for changes aloft to see what May become of this. Ive got it pegged as a real late redeveloper the way I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Obviously way out there but next Saturday looks like an odd convoluted scenario, maybe like you said some late revdeveloper/coastal transfer? Or maybe the models are right showing an inland/inside runner? The lack of cold air to start next Saturday may prove to be an issue though Yea I don’t necessarily think it’s a snowstorm for our area, rather New England but I’ve got my heads up on this one because something tells me the pure inland runner scenario isn’t exactly correct. I could be way off but that’s not what I see when trying to adjust the 500 to a less complicated look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 First i should heed my own advice, but i urge caution this season out past 5 days. Too many 180s this year. With that said, irt to next weekend, GEPS has a coastal look with HP in Maine. 100% ideal? No. Decent signal to watch? Absolutely. I like the +PNA, -AO, war look. It could work.With the PNA Going so positive and the epo in firm negative territory, this has the potential for another significant winter Weather event for the tri state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Well, that’s what I get for trusting the Euro. Don’t worry it will never happen again. As far is I’m concerned, the Euro is not trustworthy anymore. They ruined that model with the “upgrade” Like 5 upgrades ago. The Euro products are great depicting Northern Hemispheric patterns but it's become god awful re: east coast cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The Euro has not been very good for quite some time. It is no better than UKIE or CMC and only slightly better than the GooFuS. The Euro/EPS are the best (op/ensemble) we have. There's no debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Kudos IBM deep thunder.... Was very consistent with this storm and was god awful last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Interesting MJO data from mike ventrice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 hours ago, Rjay said: Hi res nam and the gem-lam ftw Close in they really did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Gfs for Tuesday has 1-3 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs for Tuesday has 1-3 inches for the area Big SWFL for our area Saturday and Sunday after the cutter. Cutter on Friday basically gives us a small chance of rain, probably mostly drizzle than heavy snow and once the SELF passes a coastal forms, GFS still running... I wonder what the Canadian shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Big SWFL for our area Saturday and Sunday after the cutter. Cutter on Friday basically gives us a small chance of rain, probably mostly drizzle than heavy snow and once the SELF passes a coastal forms, GFS still running... I wonder what the Canadian shows. Gfs has a big mixed bag next weekend with several inches of slop. It is really close to a good snowstorm again. CMC has a big rainstorm and then a low forms along the front and it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a big mixed bag next weekend with several inches of slop. It is really close to a good snowstorm again. CMC has a big rainstorm and then a low forms along the front and it snows. 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: With that track that’ll end up being snow.. also look at that high it’s at a perfect spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: With that track that’ll end up being snow.. also look at that high it’s at a perfect spot Except a week out that won't be the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Except a week out that won't be the track Gfs keeps showing a coastal We just need it cold enough A little more snow on Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: With that track that’ll end up being snow.. also look at that high it’s at a perfect spot ...that would be good for the new england patriots playoff game. kick off is @ 815pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 If the gfs did play out like what it's showing, then we'd probably have a good coastal snowstorm. Very strong high just north of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Looking like the "big thaw" might be muted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the gfs did play out like what it's showing, then we'd probably have a good coastal snowstorm. Very strong high just north of New England. It's very close to one on the GFS but the 850s are warm. Sleet for the coast and snow inland but still a week out. I agree with you about the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Looking like the "big thaw" might be muted as well. Gfs doesn't even show a thaw. Just 2 day warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 gfs unchanged, icing event for NY metro, snow north and west, rain south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Looks like 1 to 2 inches for the area on Monday on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gfs unchanged, icing event for NY metro, snow north and west, rain south For Monday or next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like 1 to 2 inches for the area on Monday on the GFS. Ny metro parts... but of NNJ, CT and Hudson Valley northward do very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Weenie map... most of what falls south of Orange County/rockland is ice.. pretty decent ice storm for city if verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ny metro parts... but of NNJ, CT and Hudson Valley northward do very well Agreed. To my eye looks like the Bronx, Westchester and Fairfield counties and North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Weenie map... most of what falls south of Orange County/rockland is ice.. pretty decent ice storm for city if verified Isn't that 6z? 12 z look like more rain and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs doesn't even show a thaw. Just 2 day warmup. The last few runs the ENS and Op both look headed right back into the big western ridge at the end of the run but they’re probably rushing out of the secondary thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The last few runs the ENS and Op both look headed right back into the big western ridge at the end of the run but they’re probably rushing out of the secondary thaw More cold for the eastern half and a repeat of Dec. 25 - Jan 8 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like 1 to 2 inches for the area on Monday on the GFS. The GFS is the most aggressive so far for Monday night. The NAM is very unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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