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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

First i should heed my own advice, but i urge caution this season out past 5 days. Too many 180s this year.

 

With that said, irt to next weekend, GEPS has a coastal look with HP in Maine. 100% ideal? No. Decent signal to watch? Absolutely.

 

I like the +PNA, -AO, war look. It could work.3818c1e8469760e6ad3b8900a4b6dbc4.jpg7d184cad66d955eee396cee933ccb7dd.jpg

Exactly what I was alluding to, there is high pressure in Canada floating around and that 500 look is just too convoluted in my opinion, it bears some watching for changes aloft to see what May become of this. 

Ive got it pegged as a real late redeveloper the way I see it.

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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously way out there but next Saturday looks like an odd convoluted scenario, maybe like you said some late revdeveloper/coastal transfer? Or maybe the models are right showing an inland/inside runner? The lack of cold air to start next Saturday may prove to be an issue though

Yea I don’t necessarily think it’s a snowstorm for our area, rather New England but I’ve got my heads up on this one because something tells me the pure inland runner scenario isn’t exactly correct. I could be way off but that’s not what I see when trying to adjust the 500 to a less complicated look.

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First i should heed my own advice, but i urge caution this season out past 5 days. Too many 180s this year.
 
With that said, irt to next weekend, GEPS has a coastal look with HP in Maine. 100% ideal? No. Decent signal to watch? Absolutely.
 
I like the +PNA, -AO, war look. It could work.3818c1e8469760e6ad3b8900a4b6dbc4.jpg&key=48bbfbf5f69bf95f60c98f86fa82acef3212c5be01b428de906561c7995970de7d184cad66d955eee396cee933ccb7dd.jpg&key=5a7f17af0d8e03f916f31b2e03f38d5badc62363968092b29ba196ac64773ad4
With the PNA Going so positive and the epo in firm negative territory, this has the potential for another significant winter Weather event for the tri state area.
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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Well, that’s what I get for trusting the Euro. Don’t worry it will never happen again. As far is I’m concerned, the Euro is not trustworthy anymore. They ruined that model with the “upgrade”

Like 5 upgrades ago.   The Euro products are great depicting Northern Hemispheric patterns but it's become god awful re: east coast cyclogenesis.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs for Tuesday has 1-3 inches for the area

Big SWFL for our area Saturday and Sunday after the cutter. Cutter on Friday basically gives us a small chance of rain, probably mostly drizzle than heavy snow and once the SELF passes a coastal forms, GFS still running... I wonder what the Canadian shows.

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9 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Big SWFL for our area Saturday and Sunday after the cutter. Cutter on Friday basically gives us a small chance of rain, probably mostly drizzle than heavy snow and once the SELF passes a coastal forms, GFS still running... I wonder what the Canadian shows.

Gfs has a big mixed bag next weekend with several inches of slop. It is really close to a good snowstorm again. 

CMC has a big rainstorm and then a low forms along the front and it snows.

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has a big mixed bag next weekend with several inches of slop. It is really close to a good snowstorm again. 

CMC has a big rainstorm and then a low forms along the front and it snows.

 

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh162-204.gif

With that track that’ll end up being snow.. also look at that high it’s at a perfect spot

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38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the gfs did play out like what it's showing, then we'd probably have a good coastal snowstorm. Very strong high just north of New England. 

 

It's very close to one on the GFS but the 850s are warm. Sleet for the coast and snow inland but still a week out.

I agree with you about the high

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