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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Thank you , it's the same people spiking the ball days out over operational output without any understanding what was going on at 500 and why this was going to end up at the BM which made for unwanted participation.

When we look at models we sometimes look for why the are wrong when there are bigger anomalies present.

When you see a huge ridge and its axis that far west and something deepening that 960 where should the height falls be , for us it was a matter of time that it would correct there

The rest comes dowh to its natural expansion of its precipitation field 

 

The kicker idea was hard to swallow as it was some very poorly sampled vort in a sparse data region and didn't dissuade us from looking at the bigger picture 

Not only that but some local pros were saying much the same, it wasn't like you were pulling it out of your arse.....I actually look for your posts to see what's going on.

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28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This storm was also an unusual situation, like Forky said these systems typically stay far away from us. 9 out of 10 times this would've been a miss. DT felt that way too.

I don't hug the models, once it was obvious the storm would have an impact I even favored a more western track despite models shifting east. But whatever fits your narrative and makes you sound better.

The pettiness doesn't bother me, I'm just here to learn because I love this stuff.

I’m sorry but Idk how people follow DT...his right ups look like a 6th grader wrote them or a weenie from here, I thought his stuff was a joke when I first heard about him...he hugs models more than I’ve seen the weenies in here....I don’t get his popularity I just don’t 

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

No my man , that's where the storm was always suppose to be 

You keep thinking numerical models predict snowstorms , they dont 

You swing with every model run and never look outside of a thinly vieled run

if it shows rain ,you yell rain . If it shows a whiff , you yell whiff 

As far as today's storm it didn't just magically appear " 50 mile closer "  it was forecast 350 miles east of the BM 5 days ago and we knew it was wrong 

You keep thinking the model is going to give you the answer , you should look at a model as to why it should be right or wrong and not always take it verbatim 

There was a negative diving off the WC all week further and further west which was pulling the ridge back , when the model didn't reposition the height falls into the Arctic boundary on the east coast  we knew it was wrong 

we didn't care what the models said 

A sub 960 Low with that ridge axis was always going to the BM 

And the mesos painted the drive N perfectly 

I posted that 4 days ago and at that time only the Caanadian got it / but that's not what I did it 

You guys keep making the same mistakes and same declarative statements in here 

 

You also posted the next 2 events were rain events , we don't know that yet 

Monday looks frozen and the cold dome of air in place should led you to at the very least question that too 

 

Its not gloating bud , it's a reminder as to not swallow every model output or it will make you sick 

I actually am not a big Steve D fan but he did a nice job explaining why this one turned out the way it did in his forecast the day before. After that it was a question of would the bands come west enough to get me into the game; they did but we were on the fringe here and got close enough for 6-8 inches and a solid event, we missed the huge bands but we were on the line and could have been even further out of the game. It was good to get a storm when it looked iffy early on.

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

U have to work top down....no surface map....no qpf...

True but you still have to look at how H5 translates to the surface and when this model gave some prime areas like Long Island and Boston such incredibly low amounts so close to the event, well, I'm going to say it didn't perform well. None of the globals performed well with this difficult setup. Frankly, I don't trust any of them beyond 3 days. 

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30 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I’m sorry but Idk how people follow DT...his right ups look like a 6th grader wrote them or a weenie from here, I thought his stuff was a joke when I first heard about him...he hugs models more than I’ve seen the weenies in here....I don’t get his popularity I just don’t 

I actually enjoy his video analysis. It’s far more coherent than his text posts. Similar to weather models you have to understand his biases, because he has quite a few. But overall I’ve learned a few things from him. 

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6 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Thank you , it's the same people spiking the ball days out over operational output without any understanding what was going on at 500 and why this was going to end up at the BM which made for unwanted participation.

When we look at models we sometimes look for why the are wrong when there are bigger anomalies present.

When you see a huge ridge and its axis that far west and something deepening that 960 where should the height falls be , for us it was a matter of time that it would correct there

The rest comes dowh to its natural expansion of its precipitation field 

 

The kicker idea was hard to swallow as it was some very poorly sampled vort in a sparse data region and didn't dissuade us from looking at the bigger picture 

You have certainly earned some bragging rights, Paul.  Great job with this one!  Painful as I am sure it is for you at times, I greatly appreciate that you continue to post here.  Always look forward to your thoughts.  Keep em coming!

I'm guessing you and your fam did not make it down to Disney?

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6 hours ago, Eduardo said:

You have certainly earned some bragging rights, Paul.  Great job with this one!  Painful as I am sure it is for you at times, I greatly appreciate that you continue to post here.  Always look forward to your thoughts.  Keep em coming!

I'm guessing you and your fam did not make it down to Disney?

Going the  20 - 25 which will be right in the middle of our 2 week warm up.

Winter will return for the month of February 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Huge rainer on the Euro for late next week.

Let's get this to 5 days and then we can talk. How  can we take anything seriously after 5 days after what we have seen so far this winter lol

That's the next storm that we have to watch. That would be the storm right before  a brief pattern change. PNA looks nice .

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Let's get this to 5 days and then we can talk. How  can we take anything seriously after 5 days after what we have seen so far this winter lol

That's the next storm thst we have to watch. That would be the storm right before  a brief pattern change. PNA looks nice .

I was really referring to this storm. That big closed low with no blocking will likely result in a cutter.

Now if we had some blocking, it would be a great setup for a miller B.

5a4f82d53ea3f.png

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Well, that’s what I get for trusting the Euro. Don’t worry it will never happen again. As far is I’m concerned, the Euro is not trustworthy anymore. They ruined that model with the “upgrade”

The Euro has not been very good for quite some time. It is no better than UKIE or CMC and only slightly better than the GooFuS. 

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Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. 

 

In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. 

 

In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back 

It’s better than in prior years but still flips around too much. Yes it did show the storm hitting our area last week but lost it in subsequent runs. 

 

In regards to next weeks potential, what are the days affected? 

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27 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. 

 

In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back 

A foot of snow when? 

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most have a storm but not snow. The Euro had 2 to 3" of rain from Thurs night thru Saturday

Yea if you look at 500 right now there’s not many ways to envision a snowstorm there, however with that said that is a very odd looking 500 presentation/evolution. I would not be surprised to see that shuffle around to more of a swfe with a possible late redeveloper, just given some of the moving pieces there.

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32 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea if you look at 500 right now there’s not many ways to envision a snowstorm there, however with that said that is a very odd looking 500 presentation/evolution. I would not be surprised to see that shuffle around to more of a swfe with a possible late redeveloper, just given some of the moving pieces there.

Obviously way out there but next Saturday looks like an odd convoluted scenario, maybe like you said some late revdeveloper/coastal transfer? Or maybe the models are right showing an inland/inside runner? The lack of cold air to start next Saturday may prove to be an issue though

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Canadian has almost a foot of snow for our area next week and still snowing! I believe it now that the warm up is in store we can really get some volatile snows and or rain but it’s not going to be warm and quiet. 
 
In my opinion the Canadian is the best model now since the upgrade and gets pretty much everything right. It may lose the storm on the next run but it will bring it back 
If you go back on tt to the CMC runs well out ahead of yesterdays "mega bomb" you will see it was one of, if not the first to latch onto the western track AnD pretty much held steady 4 days out. Nobody wants to hear it but the CMC family have been a "GEM" this season, pun intended.
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