Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Regardless of the track of the storm, models are unanimous in the insane cold coming behind the storm. Both Friday and Saturday nights have a shot at below zero areawide. And that is what I think we'll remember this winter for. I do think we could have single digit highs and below zero lows on both nights with high winds so power outages are a danger. I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done? I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: I don't know where you were in 15-16 but it was my personal worst winter ever. Only about 30% of average snow and little cold. I agree that was horrible, I meant 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty much exactly my call in the other thread. Looks good to me. Cape cod special. I don’t think anyone in this sub forum should be disappointed with that type of result considering a clean whiff is still possible Not disappointed because it looks like historic cold is what will be remembered, I think below zero cold is a lot more significant than a snowstorm at this point anyway. I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done? I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said: I agree that was horrible, I meant 2016-17. It really depends where you were. We had over 40 inches of snow on the south shore and a blockbuster 30" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: And that is what I think we'll remember this winter for. I do think we could have single digit highs and below zero lows on both nights with high winds so power outages are a danger. I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done? I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern. Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018. That's what I was thinking too but some are pretty insistent on a hostile pattern developing for coastal snowfall, and to that, I'd bring up the Feb 2006 scenario, where we were able to get a big storm in a winter that was much milder than this one (even if the pattern relaxes it's hard to imagine this winter ever getting as mild as that one was.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, Paragon said: Not disappointed because it looks like historic cold is what will be remembered, I think below zero cold is a lot more significant than a snowstorm at this point anyway. I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done? I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern. After this weekend near shore ocean temps will actually be a good amount below normal. We know how this has aided us in the past. That’s just one of a million factors obviously but it’s an underlooked positive one. I’m at 10” on the season and another 3 or 4 which i think is fairly likely out here will bring us to a good anmount above normal. February is historically our snowiest month so I doubt we throw zeros up then even if the rest of January fails to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018.How anyone can write this off right now is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: After this weekend near shore ocean temps will actually be a good amount below normal. We know how this has aided us in the past. That’s just one of a million factors obviously but it’s an underlooked positive one. I’m at 10” on the season and another 3 or 4 which i think is fairly likely out here will bring us to a good anmount above normal. February is historically our snowiest month so I doubt we throw zeros up then even if the rest of January fails to produce. That's what I'm thinking also, I look at this as a colder version of the 2005-06 winter and NYC had 40" in that thanks to a two foot plus snowstorm in a much milder pattern than this one is ever likely to get. Even this area had near normal snowfall and we were in the screw zone with that storm. Another winter with some similarities was 1993-94 with all the arctic shots but not a lot of snow timed with those arctic shots, but we still managed to get ours in February. That one also had a +NAO. I remember many of the events that were forecast to changeover didn't because the waters were so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam 6zI know I sound like a broken record, but what’s the NAM’s track record at this range?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, USCG RS said: Nam 6z Well that is certainly interesting to say the least.... what's the total output for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Paragon said: It really depends where you were. We had over 40 inches of snow on the south shore and a blockbuster 30" snowstorm. Up here in northeastern Pa I had less than 30 inches of snow for the season and some less than 20 inches, one of the lowest totals ever around these parts.We missed out on the big storm with only a couple of inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, North and West said: I know I sound like a broken record, but what’s the NAM’s track record at this range? . Subjectively, it's seemed much better to me than it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Up here in northeastern Pa I had less than 30 inches of snow for the season and some less than 20 inches, one of the lowest totals ever around these parts.We missed out on the big storm with only a couple of inches or so. It's really weird because Allentown had 30+ inches in that storm too (max was almost a due west to east from Allentown to JFK), and I have a place near Alrightsville/Lake Harmony area one county north and there was a lot of snow there too. Once you got north of I-80, no snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Paragon said: It's really weird because Allentown had 30+ inches in that storm too (max was almost a due west to east from Allentown to JFK), and I have a place near Alrightsville/Lake Harmony area one county north and there was a lot of snow there too. Once you got north of I-80, no snow lol. The cutoff was unreal, you go from a blizzard to a minor event within 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 12/31/2017 at 10:02 PM, qg_omega said: A closed southern stream low will just get punted ENE by the great lakes kicker, we need that to slow and phase in or at least interact to bring impacts to the area. Everyone is focused on the two stream phase but that is great for coastal South Carolina. Thoughts remain the same here, the kicker is still acting as a kicker and does not phase in. Euro and GFS have remained rock solid in showing .2 to .3 LE for NYC with more over Long Island. 2 to 4 is a good call for NYC from west to east. NAMs should not even be discussed we have all seen this before where they were out on their own even as the event was ongoing! They will eventually cave to the Euro / GFS blend but not till tomorrow morning! Also I would not use the EPS over the Euro OP, the EPS will not resolve a low this strong which will cause the precip field to be more broad then what is actually likely to occur. Expect next to nothing west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Growing signals for a January thaw mid month! Anyone wanna weigh in on how warm we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Growing signals for a January thaw mid month! Anyone wanna weigh in on how warm we get? My guess would be since we seem to only get extremes anymore that we could end up seeing mid 50s to low 60s at least once or twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: My guess would be since we seem to only get extremes anymore that we could end up seeing mid 50s to low 60s at least once or twice I hate the thought of it but I definitely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Nibor said: I hate the thought of it but I definitely agree. Brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 16 hours ago, qg_omega said: Thoughts remain the same here, the kicker is still acting as a kicker and does not phase in. Euro and GFS have remained rock solid in showing .2 to .3 LE for NYC with more over Long Island. 2 to 4 is a good call for NYC from west to east. NAMs should not even be discussed we have all seen this before where they were out on their own even as the event was ongoing! They will eventually cave to the Euro / GFS blend but not till tomorrow morning! Also I would not use the EPS over the Euro OP, the EPS will not resolve a low this strong which will cause the precip field to be more broad then what is actually likely to occur. Expect next to nothing west of NYC. ehhhh NAM trounces those models when it comes to intense systems like this. This is what happened in Jan 2016 too. I don't know why people give any credence to the GFS when it fails on a continuous basis. The Euro hasn't been too hot with systems of this type since its "upgrade" either so it shouldn't be put on a pedestal. Double digit totals will make it at least as far west as JFK with verified blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 What’s the Euro show for the snow/mix next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:30 AM, allgame830 said: Well that is certainly interesting to say the least.... what's the total output for the area? The NAM saw this two days ago very well. The NAM for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:57 AM, USCG RS said: Nam 6z So close to the radar today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 12/28/2017 at 11:22 PM, Cobalt said: He'll be eating his words if the Euro comes in East too. Still too far to talk about trends though. Major shifts are gonna happen, but IMO this is gonna either go OTS or hit S New England. Just my opinion though Looks like he's not the one eating his words now does it ? Need some salt ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 12/31/2017 at 11:19 AM, SnoSki14 said: Eastern LI could do very well here, may be a classic for them. Central LI is probably on the fence and anyone further west (50+ miles) could pick up a few inches of snow. I got 15 , should I give it back ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 12/31/2017 at 11:26 PM, sferic said: Thank you so much 951 at the BM , still think that was a troll ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 12:26 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This is a deep Miller A it will go to the benchmark prob sub 960 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 6:15 PM, snowman19 said: I’m thinking very minimal snow impacts west of eastern Long Island. This has always been an eastern New England snowstorm. West of I-95? Forget anything but mood flakes IMO. Could I be wrong? Sure Hmmmmm , ya think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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