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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Regardless of the track of the storm, models are unanimous in the insane cold coming behind the storm. Both Friday and Saturday nights have a shot at below zero areawide. 

And that is what I think we'll remember this winter for.

I do think we could have single digit highs and below zero lows on both nights with high winds so power outages are a danger.

I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done?

I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern.

 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much exactly my call in the other thread. Looks good to me. Cape cod special. I don’t think  anyone in this sub forum should be disappointed with that type of result considering a clean whiff is still possible

Not disappointed because it looks like historic cold is what will be remembered, I think below zero cold is a lot more significant than a snowstorm at this point anyway.

I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done?

I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern.

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6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

And that is what I think we'll remember this winter for.

I do think we could have single digit highs and below zero lows on both nights with high winds so power outages are a danger.

I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done?

I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern.

 

Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018.

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1 minute ago, Enigma said:

Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018.

That's what I was thinking too but some are pretty insistent on a hostile pattern developing for coastal snowfall, and to that, I'd bring up the Feb 2006 scenario, where we were able to get a big storm in a winter that was much milder than this one (even if the pattern relaxes it's hard to imagine this winter ever getting as mild as that one was.)

 

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36 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Not disappointed because it looks like historic cold is what will be remembered, I think below zero cold is a lot more significant than a snowstorm at this point anyway.

I do have a question, let's say we get fringed by this storm, and end up with a foot or less of snow on the season at the end of the current pattern, do you think that the above average seasonal snowfall forecasts are in danger, are we going to eek to normal snowfall or might be stay below normal snowfall when the season is done?

I wonder about the chances of a big storm a la Feb 2006, a blockbuster storm can occur in a mild pattern.

After this weekend near shore ocean temps will actually be a good amount below normal. We know how this has aided us in the past. That’s just one of a million factors obviously but it’s an underlooked positive one. I’m at 10” on the season and another 3 or 4 which i think is fairly likely out here will bring us to a good anmount above normal. February is historically our snowiest month so I doubt we throw zeros up then even if the rest of January fails to produce.

 

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Expectations have certainly been skewed the past 10 years. MECS are not the norm. Typically, we nickel and dime to 25-35 in. in the NYC metro. This storm was truly never a significant threat. Yes, someone out on LI may still get their 6 inches or so, but pattern recognition would have kept excitement limited. We are still very early in the season and I see no reason for not expecting at least several SECS events between now and March 2018.
How anyone can write this off right now is beyond me.
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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

After this weekend near shore ocean temps will actually be a good amount below normal. We know how this has aided us in the past. That’s just one of a million factors obviously but it’s an underlooked positive one. I’m at 10” on the season and another 3 or 4 which i think is fairly likely out here will bring us to a good anmount above normal. February is historically our snowiest month so I doubt we throw zeros up then even if the rest of January fails to produce.

 

That's what I'm thinking also, I look at this as a colder version of the 2005-06 winter and NYC had 40" in that thanks to a two foot plus snowstorm in a much milder pattern than this one is ever likely to get.

Even this area had near normal snowfall and we were in the screw zone with that storm.

 

Another winter with some similarities was 1993-94 with all the arctic shots but not  a lot of snow timed with those arctic shots, but we still managed to get ours in February.  That one also had a +NAO.  I remember many of the events that were forecast to changeover didn't because the waters were so cold.

 

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5 hours ago, Paragon said:

It really depends where you were.

We had over 40 inches of snow on the south shore and a blockbuster 30" snowstorm.

 

Up here in northeastern Pa I had less than 30 inches of snow for the season and some less than 20 inches, one of the lowest totals ever around these parts.We missed out on the big storm with only a couple of inches or so.

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21 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Up here in northeastern Pa I had less than 30 inches of snow for the season and some less than 20 inches, one of the lowest totals ever around these parts.We missed out on the big storm with only a couple of inches or so.

It's really weird because Allentown had 30+ inches in that storm too (max was almost a due west to east from Allentown to JFK), and I have a place near Alrightsville/Lake Harmony area one county north and there was a lot of snow there too.  Once you got north of I-80, no snow lol.

 

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

It's really weird because Allentown had 30+ inches in that storm too (max was almost a due west to east from Allentown to JFK), and I have a place near Alrightsville/Lake Harmony area one county north and there was a lot of snow there too.  Once you got north of I-80, no snow lol.

 

The cutoff was unreal, you go from a blizzard to a minor event within 30 miles or so.

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On 12/31/2017 at 10:02 PM, qg_omega said:

A closed southern stream low will just get punted ENE by the great lakes kicker, we need that to slow and phase in or at least interact to bring impacts to the area.  Everyone is focused on the two stream phase but that is great for coastal South Carolina.

Thoughts remain the same here, the kicker is still acting as a kicker and does not phase in.  Euro and GFS have remained rock solid in showing .2 to .3 LE for NYC with more over Long Island.  2 to 4 is a good call for NYC from west to east.  NAMs should not even be discussed we have all seen this before where they were out on their own even as the event was ongoing!  They will eventually cave to the Euro / GFS blend but not till tomorrow morning!  Also I would not use the EPS over the Euro OP, the EPS will not resolve a low this strong which will cause the precip field to be more broad then what is actually likely to occur.  Expect next to nothing west of NYC.

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16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Thoughts remain the same here, the kicker is still acting as a kicker and does not phase in.  Euro and GFS have remained rock solid in showing .2 to .3 LE for NYC with more over Long Island.  2 to 4 is a good call for NYC from west to east.  NAMs should not even be discussed we have all seen this before where they were out on their own even as the event was ongoing!  They will eventually cave to the Euro / GFS blend but not till tomorrow morning!  Also I would not use the EPS over the Euro OP, the EPS will not resolve a low this strong which will cause the precip field to be more broad then what is actually likely to occur.  Expect next to nothing west of NYC.

ehhhh NAM trounces those models when it comes to intense systems like this.  This is what happened in Jan 2016 too.

I don't know why people give any credence to the GFS when it fails on a continuous basis. 

The Euro hasn't been too hot with systems of this type since its "upgrade" either so it shouldn't be put on a pedestal.

 

Double digit totals will make it at least as far west as JFK with verified blizzard conditions.

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On 12/28/2017 at 11:22 PM, Cobalt said:

He'll be eating his words if the Euro comes in East too. Still too far to talk about trends though. Major shifts are gonna happen, but IMO this is gonna either go OTS or hit S New England. Just my opinion though

Looks like he's not the one eating his words now does it ? 

 

Need some salt ? 

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