NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 still a decent snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No it doesn't It does and the rgem was outside the benchmark. I know you want this to be a snowstorm, we all do, but you need to be objective. Edit to reflect Ggem going considerably east toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: It does and the rgem was outside the benchmark. I know you want this to be a snowstorm, we all do, but you need to be objective. Edit to reflect Ggem going considerably east toward the GFS. Canadian is still a SECS for many in the metro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Canadian is still a SECS for many in the metro..... Yes but trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: It does and the rgem was outside the benchmark. I know you want this to be a snowstorm, we all do, but you need to be objective. Edit to reflect Ggem going considerably east toward the GFS. Thanks. It's early in the winter. Hopefully we get another chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Canadian is still a SECS for many in the metro..... The main difference is the GFS generates no precipitation where many other models do west of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Canadian is still a SECS for many in the metro..... Well who needs 2 feet of snow anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The main difference is the GFS generates no precipitation where many other models do west of the storm Canadian is also one of the worst models we have take a blend of Euro and GFS and it's a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for the area more over Eastern LI with probably nothing in PA. This storm goes in the near miss section of the KU book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: It does and the rgem was outside the benchmark. I know you want this to be a snowstorm, we all do, but you need to be objective. Edit to reflect Ggem going considerably east toward the GFS. I am Do you really think this is the final solution ? It's the mesos vs globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The UKMET looks like it’s west of the 12 run to me. It still starts insanely east though down in the Bahamas but I don’t think it’s position along 40-45N is as far to the east this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: Canadian is also one of the worst models we have take a blend of Euro and GFS and it's a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for the area more over Eastern LI with probably nothing in PA Verification scores have the cmc beating the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC was definitely less precip than 12z but the track didn’t really look that different to me. I’ll take my chances with a 954 low in that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I am Do you really think this is the final solution ? It's the mesos vs globals. No I never said that, but we are approaching the timeframe where we’d be looking for sizable model shifts and I’m just not seeing anything sticking out on models that could lean this in our favor in future runs. We aren’t going to see a transient block at 500 pop up now... we aren’t most likely going to see that lead vort just disappear now... We could still hope for some spacing resolvement, but that likely wouldn’t yield major differences in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The UKMET looks like it’s west of the 12 run to me. It still starts insanely east though down in the Bahamas but I don’t think it’s position along 40-45N is as far to the east this time Phasing brings it due north (using coriolis, almost west)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Overall models are trending in a negative direction for us tonight, I hope we still salvage some snow because it's going to be a long time before we get another chance, next storm looks like a Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Overall models are trending in a negative direction for us tonight, I hope we still salvage some snow because it's going to be a long time before we get another chance, next storm looks like a Rainer. That thing will end up a flat nothing in the end. There really is no marked change in the pattern to make me believe otherwise. It’s axtually been trending less dynamic the last 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Regardless of the track of the storm, models are unanimous in the insane cold coming behind the storm. Both Friday and Saturday nights have a shot at below zero areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Kinda seems like the NAM where it gets a last second tug west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Ukie? The precip shield is unimpressive on the western side just like all the other model suites tonight. This just solidified my earlier thoughts of a non event for snow from I-95, west in our area. If you see more than snow showers and flurries west of I-95 consider yourself lucky. Congrats eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lol, the 0z run of the new HRDPS Canadian model has this system moving in a NW trajectory towards North Carolina at the end of the run. Not sure how reliable this model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Lol, the 0z run of the new HRDPS Canadian model has this system moving in a NW trajectory towards North Carolina at the end of the run. Not sure how reliable this model is. Looks RGEMish. I believe they are related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 00z GFS is out to sea. The lead vort pulls everything East. It’s been the same story for days. While other areas have improved, the pesky lead vort doesn’t phase in until the system is gone, and it pulls the baroclinc zone East with it. It's not going to phase. There's other ways to make this come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Overall models are trending in a negative direction for us tonight, I hope we still salvage some snow because it's going to be a long time before we get another chance, next storm looks like a Rainer. Only if you're looking at qpf. I liked some of the trends aloft. Let's see what happens when the northern stream energy leaves a region with crappy data. We'll have a really good idea at that point. 40 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Lol, the 0z run of the new HRDPS Canadian model has this system moving in a NW trajectory towards North Carolina at the end of the run. Not sure how reliable this model is. My fav short range model. It's only reliable inside 24 hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro at 48 hrs looks a tad north compared to last nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is gonna be east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 H5 looked very similar to the 12z run to my tired eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Post all fish storm related stuff in here. ...the one we're tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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