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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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42 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

another part of the puzzle is the ridge out west. its intensity plays a part in how some of the vorts dig into our developing eastern trough. there has been a trend towards higher heights in the west, which i think plays a part in why guiadance is also trending closer to the coast. for example:

4467F887-A352-40A9-A963-ECCBC7792545.gif.8802c2fa5e86c05308bc91e421c2c3a7.gif

water vapor imagery shows deep convection west of the baja, which certainly helps contribute to that ridge building, as does the potent cutoff kicking it off. 88CECF5C-9AA3-455A-99B9-D5D1CCA76D0A.gif.29f82d95bc2df63c8497b23c431da4a1.gif

that convection is over a pool of warmer than normal water and is not necessarily well-modeled. something to keep an eye on. 

That SW continues to lean back and it's been tugging the ridge back 

The trough axis has begun to sharpen and this should run to the BM

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9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

We had 2 to 3 of a non event  , sorry that you live in the alps 

I will send you pics Thrs

I had just under 2”. Far from the non event he called for. And as of yesterday he said this threat is a “lost cause”. Better just to ignore this nonsense. This is obviously the kind of event that no one should be speaking In absolutes. We may not know the final solution until it’s occuring right over our heads. The good news is 500 has improved on modeling today. That’s what we want to see.

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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I had just under 2”. Far from the non event he called for. And as of yesterday he said this threat is a “lost cause”. Better just to ignore this nonsense. This is obviously the kind of event that no one should be speaking In absolutes. We may not know the final solution until it’s occuring right over our heads. The good news is 500 has improved on modeling today. That’s what we want to see.

If it's going to snow , you need the EPS with you and snowlittle against you 

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nam bleh to me...was thinking we’d see something tonight 

Ya really starting to run out of time. I just don't see it happening. I know a lot of people with more knowledge will disagree but going into the top of the 8th with only the rpm and extended Rgem showing any resemblance of a hit in the last week. Idk. Sometimes things can look good and should work out but they don't 

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This threat hasn't changed that much placement wise since it first appeared. I'd say 80 percent of the time models showed this staying too far east to give us a bit hit. 

That being said I still think a few inches are on the table because a big bomb like this is more likely to hang further west, but anything more is unlikely. 

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8 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said:

What a bomb on 3k Nam...

FCE52A30-DEEC-421B-8870-4676F89213C4.png

It's a little faster than the 12 km version. Moreover, it tracks the storm about 100 miles west of where the 12 km version takes the storm at the same latitude. It will be interesting to see whether the 0z RGEM agrees with either the 3 km or 12 km versions of the NAM.

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

At least it's consistent even if it's horrible lol... every dog has its day!

And just as easily it could give flurries next run. Apparently some news stations were running with this earlier today? Ridiculous. I remember when it was giving Central Park 27" right before 2/8/13 and was being shown on NBC 4. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

And just as easily it could give flurries next run. Apparently some news stations were running with this earlier today? Ridiculous. I remember when it was giving Central Park 27" right before 2/8/13 and was being shown on NBC 4. 

Oh I most definitely agree with you... in all likelihood it's flat out wrong... we need the globals to start to trend in our favor 

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IMO the 00z NAM was a big improvement aloft. I posted about this in the NE thread as well, but the trof axis over Ontario is further west. This is important because it allows more room for heights to recover in the Atlantic

if you look at the orientation of the s/w at the 40N, it's much more negatively tilted than previously. The only thing that kept this from being a huge hit is that the southern part of the storm was more disjointed, so it couldn't pump heights quickly enough to turn the corner faster. That, at least in my mind, may be more of a timing issue, which is much easier to see changes in than synoptIc patterns

we shall see though

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