PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s what I was doing on Saturday afternoon when I was whisking the 1/4 inch of snow off my driveway with a broom in the sunshine lmaoo We had 2 to 3 of a non event , sorry that you live in the alps I will send you pics Thrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 42 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: another part of the puzzle is the ridge out west. its intensity plays a part in how some of the vorts dig into our developing eastern trough. there has been a trend towards higher heights in the west, which i think plays a part in why guiadance is also trending closer to the coast. for example: water vapor imagery shows deep convection west of the baja, which certainly helps contribute to that ridge building, as does the potent cutoff kicking it off. that convection is over a pool of warmer than normal water and is not necessarily well-modeled. something to keep an eye on. That SW continues to lean back and it's been tugging the ridge back The trough axis has begun to sharpen and this should run to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: We had 2 to 3 of a non event , sorry that you live in the alps I will send you pics Thrs I had just under 2”. Far from the non event he called for. And as of yesterday he said this threat is a “lost cause”. Better just to ignore this nonsense. This is obviously the kind of event that no one should be speaking In absolutes. We may not know the final solution until it’s occuring right over our heads. The good news is 500 has improved on modeling today. That’s what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like the ridge is a bit further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I had just under 2”. Far from the non event he called for. And as of yesterday he said this threat is a “lost cause”. Better just to ignore this nonsense. This is obviously the kind of event that no one should be speaking In absolutes. We may not know the final solution until it’s occuring right over our heads. The good news is 500 has improved on modeling today. That’s what we want to see. If it's going to snow , you need the EPS with you and snowlittle against you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nam bleh to me...was thinking we’d see something tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I’m about done with this one, taken too much lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam bleh to me...was thinking we’d see something tonight Ya really starting to run out of time. I just don't see it happening. I know a lot of people with more knowledge will disagree but going into the top of the 8th with only the rpm and extended Rgem showing any resemblance of a hit in the last week. Idk. Sometimes things can look good and should work out but they don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam bleh to me...was thinking we’d see something tonight I think the crazy uncle will visit us tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It really tried to pull it NW last minute . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’m about done with this one, taken too much lol... It's not that bad in the end. Some snow for the NYC area. It hits New England pretty good. Sub 960 close to the benchmark on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Enough talk bout the BM. Its about how it gets to the BM. Traditional track is from Hatteras not from Miami. Need inside the Bm by about 50-100 miles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It’s getting close to put up or shut up time for this to come closer. I’ll give it to tomorrow afternoon but if we dont see more tucked in solutions by then, I’ll hang it up for anything more than a few inches near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This threat hasn't changed that much placement wise since it first appeared. I'd say 80 percent of the time models showed this staying too far east to give us a bit hit. That being said I still think a few inches are on the table because a big bomb like this is more likely to hang further west, but anything more is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What a bomb on 3k Nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trough is sharper, but the trailing southern SW lags the lead wave, which escapes east a bit too far. Not much of a correction to get this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: What a bomb on 3k Nam... 948 low WOW Insane to see that with a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, RDRY said: Trough is sharper, but the trailing southern SW lags the lead wave, which escapes east a bit too far. Not much of a correction to get this better. We still get snow on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like we have ourselves a hurricane at 60 hours on the 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Don't look now but the 3k nam looks good for Eastern jersey into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Pretty rare snows down into SC and maybe even some wintry weather into N. Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: What a bomb on 3k Nam... It's a little faster than the 12 km version. Moreover, it tracks the storm about 100 miles west of where the 12 km version takes the storm at the same latitude. It will be interesting to see whether the 0z RGEM agrees with either the 3 km or 12 km versions of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RPM gives Queens/Nassau 16-20" lol trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Courtesy of @Thunderblizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RPM gives Queens/Nassau 16-20" lol trash At least it's consistent even if it's horrible lol... every dog has its day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: At least it's consistent even if it's horrible lol... every dog has its day! And just as easily it could give flurries next run. Apparently some news stations were running with this earlier today? Ridiculous. I remember when it was giving Central Park 27" right before 2/8/13 and was being shown on NBC 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: And just as easily it could give flurries next run. Apparently some news stations were running with this earlier today? Ridiculous. I remember when it was giving Central Park 27" right before 2/8/13 and was being shown on NBC 4. Oh I most definitely agree with you... in all likelihood it's flat out wrong... we need the globals to start to trend in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 IMO the 00z NAM was a big improvement aloft. I posted about this in the NE thread as well, but the trof axis over Ontario is further west. This is important because it allows more room for heights to recover in the Atlantic if you look at the orientation of the s/w at the 40N, it's much more negatively tilted than previously. The only thing that kept this from being a huge hit is that the southern part of the storm was more disjointed, so it couldn't pump heights quickly enough to turn the corner faster. That, at least in my mind, may be more of a timing issue, which is much easier to see changes in than synoptIc patterns we shall see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm hearing the RGEM came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Upton snow map is interesting it has NYC with 3 inches of snow and 100 miles east at Montauk it is only showing 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.