January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

[Rjay]

Just now, snow1 said:

This threat Is looking more and more like this week. Ots and weak

What makes you say that?

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Well OTS 

Billy isn't there a good chance that this is going to go back and forth a couple of times on the models before next week ? I mean I think it was Bernie R  that said said out to sea right now would not be a bad place to be or that he expected that 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, snow1 said:

This threat Is looking more and more like this week. Ots and weak

I mean...it’s 1 model 7 days out...it’s not really looking like anything except a threat atm

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Billy isn't there a good chance that this is going to go back and forth a couple of times on the models before next week ? I mean I think it was Bernie R  that said said out to sea right now would not be a bad place to be or that he expected that 

Were caught up in crazy euro runs..good signal for storm, follow the runs, but don’t give weight till about 3-4 days out..even then it’s iffy

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

That’s why I don’t post here as much, it’s senseless over analyzing and getting into snow/no snow debates with people when models are hot trash...euro says storm because of blank...gfs is ots because of blank..that should be the end of discussion this far out lol...trying to guess is foolish 

[forkyfork]

that's 18z. omg can't you read a label

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Were caught up in crazy euro runs..good signal for storm, follow the runs, but don’t give weight till about 3-4 days out..even then it’s iffy

Obviously you give more weight to the Euro and especially it's ensembles but as of now, there's just a storm signal.  No one should be reading anymore into it.   

[The Plowsman]

That’s why I don’t post here as much, it’s senseless over analyzing and getting into snow/no snow debates with people when models are hot trash...euro says storm because of blank...gfs is ots because of blank..that should be the end of discussion this far out lol...trying to guess is foolish 

N day before also!

[dmillz25]

H5 is moving towards the Euro on the GFS

[mike1984]

Even more out to sea than 18z, no?

 

 

[Cobalt]

He'll be eating his words if the Euro comes in East too. Still too far to talk about trends though. Major shifts are gonna happen, but IMO this is gonna either go OTS or hit S New England. Just my opinion though

[Stormlover74]

CMC well OTS

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that's 18z. omg can't you read a label

Well OTS...pasted wrong map...call the cops 

[Rjay]

I like the look on the Ukie

[Yanksfan]

Ukie at the end of its run has the low closer to the coast off the coast of the carolinas with trough in neutral position. Would of been interesting to see if the run was played out. Edit: You beat me to it Rjay.

[Rjay]

GEFS are well west of the op

 

[Enigma]

GEFS west of Op, but still a complete miss. I think we should be insightful about our approach of extremes. I actually was not as enthused to see the 947 mb mean on the EPS because it takes away from the credibility of the run. We will not have a sub-970 my low sitting south of LI ( maybe sub-980). Some might call it a strong signal, but I consider it a strong outlier. My main concern is that we are relying on a very intense LP to pump up the downstream ridging, ultimately leading to a more western solution. This is where an understanding of basic Synoptics is important. I think that this system rapidly intensifies too late in the game to create such a westward track. I also think that it is too risky to rely on the transient ridging near Newfoundland. I put a 20% chance of NYC receiving measurable precip from this system.

[Cobalt]

31 minutes ago, Enigma said:

GEFS west of Op, but still a complete miss. I think we should be insightful about our approach of extremes. I actually was not as enthused to see the 947 mb mean on the EPS because it takes away from the credibility of the run. We will not have a sub-970 my low sitting south of LI ( maybe sub-980). Some might call it a strong signal, but I consider it a strong outlier. My main concern is that we are relying on a very intense LP to pump up the downstream ridging, ultimately leading to a more western solution. This is where an understanding of basic Synoptics is important. I think that this system rapidly intensifies too late in the game to create such a westward track. I also think that it is too risky to rely on the transient ridging near Newfoundland. I put a 20% chance of NYC receiving measurable precip from this system.

Very realistic prediction for NYC. This is a long shot for sure. DT had a pretty good video about it highlighting what it would take for the system to be West and not just hit Long Island/SE New England

 

[Rjay]

46 minutes ago, Enigma said:

GEFS west of Op, but still a complete miss. I think we should be insightful about our approach of extremes. I actually was not as enthused to see the 947 mb mean on the EPS because it takes away from the credibility of the run. We will not have a sub-970 my low sitting south of LI ( maybe sub-980). Some might call it a strong signal, but I consider it a strong outlier. My main concern is that we are relying on a very intense LP to pump up the downstream ridging, ultimately leading to a more western solution. This is where an understanding of basic Synoptics is important. I think that this system rapidly intensifies too late in the game to create such a westward track. I also think that it is too risky to rely on the transient ridging near Newfoundland. I put a 20% chance of NYC receiving measurable precip from this system.

The mean wasn't 947mb.  The low res control was.   The mean was 1002mb.  A storm signal is there on all the ensembles but the means are definitely all east of where we would want it.   It very well may end up too far east for us.  6 days to go.  We'll see. 

[Rjay]

The Euro is like 500 miles east of it's 12z run.  

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro is like 500 miles east of it's 12z run.  

Yup. Things should sort themselves out at least a bit within the next 48-72 hours. After that, we're nearing the 3 day window and changes like we're seeing won't happen.

[Enigma]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro is like 500 miles east of it's 12z run.  

I never thought there would be a day when the Euro would be so erratic and useless. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I never thought there would be a day when the Euro would be so erratic and useless. 

Small shift 

[SnoSki14]

Things are way too progressive, we really may escape this cold period without anything to show for it. Even the clipper has dried up to practically nothing. 

But then again how can models even be trusted when they shift hundreds of miles every run.

[White Gorilla]

Wow, nothing like a Euro miss right after a Euro crush to deaden the enthusiasm 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Wow, nothing like a Euro miss right after a Euro crush to deaden the enthusiasm 

The EPS mean only shifted about 150 miles east which isn't that much this far out. The UKMET came west similar to the 12Z OP Euro. But I am not sure if it's just a run behind whatever the OP Euro is doing which sometimes other models do. Phasing is a very complex process and often favors the Eastern half of LI and New England or the Canadian Maritimes over areas further west. Sometimes we get luckier like Feb 2013. But other times Atlantic Canada cashes in like it did with White Juan in 2004.

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Things are way too progressive, we really may escape this cold period without anything to show for it. Even the clipper has dried up to practically nothing. 

But then again how can models even be trusted when they shift hundreds of miles every run.

 

14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Wow, nothing like a Euro miss right after a Euro crush to deaden the enthusiasm 

there is going to be swings back and forth in the models as usual - I think its a better idea to focus on the 500mb maps right now and not pay as much attention to the surface maps

[NJwx85]

Last nights Euro was a timing issue. That lead shortwave that I spoke about yesterday is even further out ahead of the trough. Secondly, that piece is a lot stronger than the previous 00z run. This is why yesterday I said models might struggle with what pieces to focus on and that we could see some major swings. 

Here is that initial piece which develops the surface low

As you can see, it eventually phases in, but it's way too late

[SnoSki14]

Any storm in this pattern is a tough sell, we had better luck in much warmer patterns. It doesn't help that we've been in a dry pattern since the fall. 

[NJwx85]

Now look at yesterday's 12z run of the Euro and you can see the timing difference. The phase is already starting to occur and you end up with a triple phaser.

All those pieces coming together produces one of the most beautiful depictions at H5 you'll ever see. As the 00z run showed however, it's a delicate setup.