The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rgem 5 day http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html ggem def only runs 2 times a day So can you explain the two, clearly different, images i posted. They are both init. at 18Z, one says RDPS and one says GDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Bottom image is GGEM topmis RGEM rgem runs 4 times a day and goes out 5 days now I guess ggem runs 2 times and goes out 10 days right i get that, but why does it say initialized at 18Z, 66 hrs puts it at the exact same ending time. I understood it to be exactly what you are saying, but that doesnt match up to what i am seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: So can you explain the two, clearly different, images i posted. They are both init. at 18Z, one says RDPS and one says GDPS. Ahhh I see what your saying... that I cannot explain lol... I have no idea what those crazy Canadians are doing just go with the snowier one lol and call it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs. I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now? Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels?? Ggem runs out to 84hrs at 06z and 18z. Meteocentre.com. it's called the gdps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, wkd said: Ggem runs out to 84hrs at 06z and 18z. Meteocentre.com. it's called the gdps. What a pointless model task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 So clearly they both run 4X/day, thats interesting. Wonder when that started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, wkd said: Ggem runs out to 84hrs at 06z and 18z. Meteocentre.com. it's called the gdps. Yes. Like I said GGEM was east at 18z. I get in the habit of calling it the CMC because that's what it's labeled as on tropicaltidbits. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yes. Like I said GGEM was east at 18z. I get in the habit of calling it the CMC because that's what it's labeled as on tropicaltidbits. My apologies. No ur good, but people sometimes think they’re 2 different models... it’s calle the CMC/GEM/GGEM LOL so confusing for someone trying to follow or learn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here is the closest analog for this weeks potential storm http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Here is the closest analog for this weeks potential storm http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html DT actually just referenced this storm in his latest video. What caused the storm to go up the coast was the northern shortwave diving south past the southern vort. The phase never occurred and caused the storm to ride the coast. If it did phase the northern shortwave would have acted as a kicker and brought the storm OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I’m just going to go ahead and say we don’t know what’s going to happen until it happens?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, North and West said: I’m just going to go ahead and say we don’t know what’s going to happen until it happens? . I doubt we'll have total model consensus. We saw with Jan 2015 they never agreed on the final solution until the storm formed...much further east than the Euro had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Uptons snowmap 2-4 inches for the NYC area and surrounding areas right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Here is the closest analog for this weeks potential storm http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html Easily my favorite storm ever because for my area this was supposed to whiff. Was living in Ellicott City (20 minutes W of Baltimore) at the time. Bob Ryan for NBC Local gave it a 20% chance of riding the coast but just looking at the radar the night before it looked to be headed right for us. Woke up to my dad saying it was like a blizzard outside. Cue Ode to Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Easily my favorite storm ever because for my area this was supposed to whiff. Was living in Ellicott City (20 minutes W of Baltimore) at the time. Bob Ryan for NBC Local gave it a 20% chance of riding the coast but just looking at the radar the night before it looked to be headed right for us. Woke up to my dad saying it was like a blizzard outside. Cue Ode to Joy. Went from it being a whiff for Cape Cod to staring down the dry slot. Craziest 24 hour shift west I can remember besides maybe Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs. I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now? Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels?? You can manipulate the url of the rgem to 84 hours. I had no idea the ggem ran 4 times a day until I saw it posted the other day and I'm still not even sure it does. If you need an explanation on how to change the url properly for the rgem, PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There's also a 6z and 18z Ukie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Went from it being a whiff for Cape Cod to staring down the dry slot. Craziest 24 hour shift west I can remember besides maybe Boxing Day. Boxing Day was conversely thrilling. Was at my Aunt's in LI the night before and had to drive back to DC to beat the storm. Few whiffs hurt more than leaving LI for DC, where the last-minute predictions of 10+ amounted to nary a flake. Anyway, just my two cents, this will be a similar event to Jan 2000/Boxing Day in that I don't even think sampling is going to rapidly induce model convergence. Seems like the GFS is gonna b and moan it's way back west but who knows how far. Very interesting Euro coming up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z Gefs trended a hair west at hr66. Once past our latitude it’s about the same spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Easily my favorite storm ever because for my area this was supposed to whiff. Was living in Ellicott City (20 minutes W of Baltimore) at the time. Bob Ryan for NBC Local gave it a 20% chance of riding the coast but just looking at the radar the night before it looked to be headed right for us. Woke up to my dad saying it was like a blizzard outside. Cue Ode to Joy. Well it was a letdown up here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 another part of the puzzle is the ridge out west. its intensity plays a part in how some of the vorts dig into our developing eastern trough. there has been a trend towards higher heights in the west, which i think plays a part in why guiadance is also trending closer to the coast. for example: water vapor imagery shows deep convection west of the baja, which certainly helps contribute to that ridge building, as does the potent cutoff kicking it off. that convection is over a pool of warmer than normal water and is not necessarily well-modeled. something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21z Sref has .75 qpf for NYC with more towards LI Nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 21z Sref has .75 qpf for NYC with more towards LI Nice snowstorm What did it show at 18Z? You can only use the SREF for the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: What did it show at 18Z? You can only use the SREF for the trend Quite similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 another part of the puzzle is the ridge out west. its intensity plays a part in how some of the vorts dig into our developing eastern trough. there has been a trend towards higher heights in the west, which i think plays a part in why guiadance is also trending closer to the coast. for example: water vapor imagery shows deep convection west of the baja, which certainly helps contribute to that ridge building, as does the potent cutoff kicking it off. that convection is over a pool of warmer than normal water and is not necessarily well-modeled. something to keep an eye on. This is interesting; what does it mean for us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, North and West said: This is interesting; what does it mean for us? . I believe the under modeled convection could make the southern stream stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, North and West said: This is interesting; what does it mean for us? . i’m pointing out how complex this whole setup and the atmosphere in general is. a stronger ridge in the west = stronger jet maxes that help the vorticity dig deeper into the east. again, it’s just part of the puzzle. if you look at water vapor over north america, there are a crazy number of vorts at play. it appears to me there is an increasing risk for a high impact winter event for nearly the entire east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FYI, when it comes to the 18z SREFS, there is a big difference between the MBN ensemble members and ARW ones. As usual, the ARW ones are most aggressive. The ARW mean is 15.6" snow. The MBN is 3.4". The latter are typically more conservative. So, even when it comes to the SREFS, there's a lot of uncertainty (just as is the case with the global and mesoscale guidance right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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