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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. In all seriousness what are your thoughts on this storm, or too early to tell?

I’ve got my reservations on this storm and have since it began popping up in modeling. A lack of a negative nao or any transient Atlantic block is really hurting the chances of all these vorts being forced to phase earlier than they are.

With that said I still tend to think this leans west over the next few days per seasonal trends and I’d guess that at best a SECS is on the table for the interests of this subforum with not much room for more than that. 

The potent northern stream shortwave if it does not phase in time will act as a barrier to westward enhancement of the precip shield and that odd lead vort will pull things east.

In the end... had we had a negative nao this would easily be a top 5 snowstorm for this area, though that could be said of many other systems to come through this area. Hence why we average what we do and not what Caribou, Maine does.

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There’s still time IMO for this to be a significant event for most of us, but hopefully at 0z we see more significant jumps west. It’s not do or die time yet but it’s getting to crunch time where we want to see changes at the surface. Hopefully we all at least see something and add to our seasonal totals since it looks like the western extent of the snow goes pretty far-this won’t be a tightly wound system. 

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6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I’ve got my reservations on this storm and have since it began popping up in modeling. A lack of a negative nao or any transient Atlantic block is really hurting the chances of all these vorts being forced to phase earlier than they are.

With that said I still tend to think this leans west over the next few days per seasonal trends and I’d guess that at best a SECS is on the table for the interests of this subforum with not much room for more than that. 

The potent northern stream shortwave if it does not phase in time will act as a barrier to westward enhancement of the precip shield and that odd lead vort will pull things east.

In the end... had we had a negative nao this would easily be a top 5 snowstorm for this area, though that could be said of many other systems to come through this area. Hence why we average what we do and not what Caribou, Maine does.

Thanks

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Based off the jog east on the 18z RGEM, I’m expecting the CMC to also move east tonight at 0z from the 12z run earlier

but the 0z model runs are the first ones to include the sampling from the shortwaves, so maybe quite different, with what I hope will be a jog west

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

So you are thinking no storm at all for our area ?

I’m thinking very minimal snow impacts west of eastern Long Island. This has always been an eastern New England snowstorm. West of I-95? Forget anything but mood flakes IMO. Could I be wrong? Sure

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m thinking very minimal snow impacts west of eastern Long Island. This has always been an eastern New England snowstorm. West of I-95? Forget anything but mood flakes IMO. Could I be wrong? Sure

this WPC QPF map says it all - go with the pro's

d13_fill.gif?1514849107594

 

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Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs.

I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now?

Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels??

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Can someone with knowledge of the RGEM/GGEM please explain what the hell is going on with that model and how it works. I'm beyond confused. I was under the impression that the GGEM only runs twice a day, but UQAM has it 4X with 6Z and 18Z runs.

I just checked the GGEM 18Z and it is clearing different than what was posted above for the 18Z RGEM. So the GGEM is running 4X a day now?

Another thing, the RGEM only shows out to 48hrs on the UQAM site but clearly it goes to 84 (every run?) so how do you get those panels??

Rgem 5 day http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

ggem def only runs 2 times a day 

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