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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The GFS is such a POS. The low jumps 200 miles east from hours 48-54. It continues to have major problems with this system. 

Aren’t most models showing this same eastward movement? 

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Every High Resolution model is now onto the idea of this coming to the BM.
They are resolving the CFI that the globals are not.
The N stream gets samples by 0z tonight and it's wave speed will determine this forecast ,  not the models everyone hugs.
Keep in mind every model deepens this more than 20 mbs in 24 hours coming from Hatteras to the BM.
So besides having a very cold 700/850 mb level tremendous upward motion is going to be present so ratios here are a true 15 to 1.
This should come right up I 95 and the chance is increasing that this is a snowstorm  from NC to NE.
The Globals are not resolving this well , Miller As like to ride the Arctic boundary not east of the BM with the ridge axis so far West.
I am close to pulling that trigger as the EPS got better again at 500 . Looking at its Hatteras latitude it has gone from 66 to 68 to 70 over its last 3 runs , I expect that to do the same near our latitude.
This has a chance to do really well along I 95 and once the N stream is sampled all the models will be in place by 12z tomorrow 
 

When is your trip?


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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It's very hard to make sense of all this for those of us who just come in here some parts of the year to see what is going on; contradictory statements only add to the confusion. I generally try to see what the pros and mets say, because other posters will always say the opposite of any statement someone else makes. But hey, I still love y'all.....I'm still a weenie at heart....hangin with Snow88 until the fat lady sings....

He only posts with absolute knowledge and certainty.  I find these threads to be a lot more useful when I skip over those posts without reading them.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Why? We're playing with house money given the past several snowy years. This is a great system to track even if it misses. All models are showing a big offshore bomb, should be a nice sight.

It’s irresponsible and nothing but hype to be showing people one of the most obscure models out there.

 

Bottom line

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