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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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Wow that was pretty close for the 18Z Nam. Look at how the last piece of energy just dives in to almost save the day. We should watch this feature in future runs. More Northern Stream interaction is what led to a more expansive precipitation shield to the west for this run.

nam_z500_vort_us_23.png

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That is rarely uselful beyond 24-36 hours if I'm not mistaken

Every High Resolution model is now onto the idea of this coming to the BM.

They are resolving the CFI that the globals are not.

The N stream gets samples by 0z tonight and it's wave speed will determine this forecast ,  not the models everyone hugs.

Keep in mind every model deepens this more than 20 mbs in 24 hours coming from Hatteras to the BM.

So besides having a very cold 700/850 mb level tremendous upward motion is going to be present so ratios here are a true 15 to 1.

This should come right up I 95 and the chance is increasing that this is a snowstorm  from NC to NE.

The Globals are not resolving this well , Miller As like to ride the Arctic boundary not east of the BM with the ridge axis so far West.

I am close to pulling that trigger as the EPS got better again at 500 . Looking at its Hatteras latitude it has gone from 66 to 68 to 70 over its last 3 runs , I expect that to do the same near our latitude.

This has a chance to do really well along I 95 and once the N stream is sampled all the models will be in place by 12z tomorrow 

 

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