rgwp96 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Benchmark is basically for I95 corridor Been plenty of bm storms were I had decent snow , I’m only 30 miles nw and I’ve seen some drastic cutoffs these past few years . I actually root for over running events since that’s the only way I get precip in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not sure if mentioned, but the last 6 or so runs of the GEPS have clearly trended the mean LP northwest. As of 12z today, the LP tracks inside the benchmark and almost touches Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Been plenty of bm storms were I had decent snow , I’m only 30 miles nw and I’ve seen some drastic cutoffs these past few years . I actually root for over running events since that’s the only way I get precip in recent years. N&W used to see plenty of snow from frequent clippers and swfe's. It was only a couple of inches at a time but it got us to 45"+ almost every year. Most winters we would have snow on the ground for 4-6 weeks at a time but not always. Frequently those swfe's would push warm air ahead of them and take out what snow we had on the ground and then replace it with quick melting wet snow. We really did have different kinds of winters up to the last ~15 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS is still east. Going down the wire here. Not looking to good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: EPS is still east. Going down the wire here. Not looking to good for us. Are they at least west of 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That’s tucked wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: EPS is still east. Going down the wire here. Not looking to good for us. This is what I'm talking about; a few posters here say things are trending better, and another one comes on and says things are not looking good. All I can say is some sure bets in recent years failed to deliver ( at least two big ones and some in 2013 thought the FEb storm would deliver ) so I no longer think anything is written in stone until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That’s tucked wow Is that good or bad? To my untrained eyes it looks good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Srefs are extremely tucked to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Based on the QPF orientation I have a hunch there is still bigger spread in the EPS than there should be at this range. You can clearly see N of North Carolina the spread looks larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Srefs are extremely tucked to coast How does it compare to previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Is that good or bad? To my untrained eyes it looks good.... That's the Canadian ensembles not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Srefs are extremely tucked to coast And juicy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, snow1 said: EPS is still east. Going down the wire here. Not looking to good for us. But west further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: And juicy lol It looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Boxing day repeat on Srefs... literally every member lol... a lot of weird modeling happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sref are not useful at this range. We really need the euro and eps to show us the real west trend and it’s still not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Boxing day repeat on Srefs... literally every member lol... a lot of weird modeling happening here Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I thought 12z Monday this thing was suppose to be narrowed down and figured out? More questions then answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 One thing is clear which is the models are struggling immensely with the mess of vorts and this deep system. I’m not calling for a big hit just yet but something about this storm feels “special”. It has that feeling of those monster storms we’ve had that creep west at the last minute. It wouldn’t take much for this to be a 12”+ storm for I-95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: One thing is clear which is the models are struggling immensely with the mess of vorts and this deep system. I’m not calling for a big hit just yet but something about this storm feels “special”. It has that feeling of those monster storms we’ve had that creep west at the last minute. It wouldn’t take much for this to be a 12”+ storm for I-95 and east. Well the time of year is right and the "feel" of the winter is right, but isn't the NAO positive? Asking a serious question here, because one thing I have learned here is that you don't get blockbusters without a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: I thought 12z Monday this thing was suppose to be narrowed down and figured out? More questions then answers. I think by Tuesday 12z we'll have higher confidence (hopefully), I'm pretty sure that by then the Pacific shortwave would have been sampled and that data would be ingested into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Boxing day repeat on Srefs... literally every member lol... a lot of weird modeling happening here They're not worth much this far out, but those members are almost HECS worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: They're not worth much this far out, but those members are almost HECS worthy. I used to like Srefs till there epic fail Jan 2015 for Inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I used to like Srefs till there epic fail Jan 2015 for Inland areas Yea tho in fairness, lots of models failed for that storm! The Euro showed a major hit for NYC metro on the night before I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I used to like Srefs till there epic fail Jan 2015 for Inland areas They were great for jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'm conflicted about the SREFS normally. Not for nothing, WPC uses them exclusively to create their heavy snowfall product images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Enigma said: I'm conflicted about the SREFS normally. Not for nothing, WPC uses them exclusively to create their heavy snowfall product images. I have a feeling they won't. That would cause hysteria lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: I have a feeling they won't. That would cause hysteria lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: They were great for jan 2016 We'll see what the next couple of runs show. The euro shifted slightly west so that's a good trend with a couple more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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