MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s not even close. It's further west with the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro is a swing and a miss. Closes off that initial vort I keep mentioning. Precip should have been more west than what the Euro showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gotta listen to Lonnie!I think of the grandparents when I see this; “No!!! Don’t listen!”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Overall the look aloft looks better than previous 2 euro runs imo, still have time for adjustments. Better sampling tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It’s not even close. It's very hard to make sense of all this for those of us who just come in here some parts of the year to see what is going on; contradictory statements only add to the confusion. I generally try to see what the pros and mets say, because other posters will always say the opposite of any statement someone else makes. But hey, I still love y'all.....I'm still a weenie at heart....hangin with Snow88 until the fat lady sings.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Long/Lat 40/70The "benchmark" or marker, if you will that the weather gods have chosen (& for good reason) for where storms usually effect us. Off the NE coast at the coordinates shown above. A storm that "tracks" To it, or to the left, means we will be impacted during event. To the right, it's OTS (out to sea) with little/no impact on US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: I think of the grandparents when I see this; “No!!! Don’t listen!” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Even Earthlight loves the H5 trends on the Euro Yep this run had a great improvement at 500mb. At least it did not go in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nice shift west and h5 looks improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Even Earthlight loves the H5 trends on the Euro Where does he say this? His Twitter has no mention of that statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: All the Globals see 960. The Euro improved at 500 and is sitting at 68 which is only 150 E from the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 days of runs..with 3 days till storm. Writing it off is trolling at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It's very hard to make sense of all this for those of us who just come in here some parts of the year to see what is going on; contradictory statements only add to the confusion. I generally try to see what the pros and mets say, because other posters will always say the opposite of any statement someone else makes. But hey, I still love y'all.....I'm still a weenie at heart....hangin with Snow88 until the fat lady sings.... The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, snow1 said: Where does he say this? His Twitter has no mention of that statement Another forum 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored. Euro isn't that far away anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored. Ukmet doesn’t even hit NE any more, it’s def the Eastern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmet doesn’t even hit NE any more, it’s def the Eastern outlier Even the GFS has snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: All the Globals see 960. The Euro improved at 500 and is sitting at 68 which is only 150 E from the BM The benchmark may not even be enough. The navgem for example brings light to moderate precip only back to the PA border with almost a perfect track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Honestly, I think we possibly are in a better spot 3 days out bc it allows for more west movement if it does indeed happen instead of it being 150-200 further west at this time and then more west movement causing mixing issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: The benchmark may not even be enough. The navgem for example brings moderate precip back to the PA border with almost a perfect track Large Miller As are wet and those like to run the the BM with the ridge that far W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Large Miller As are wet and those like to run the the BM with the ridge that far W Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms . It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, rgwp96 said: Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms . It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . 30 miles was the difference between 6 and 24" during boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored.The euro at h5 is very close. The models are having tremendous issues resolving all the Vorts/energies. We are close to a crippling storm. Edit : crippling is a bit strong wording wise, at this stage especially. I would say close to a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms . It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . I certainly can...being in NEPA was brutal from 2010-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms . It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . We’ve been seeing some pretty drastic northern stream influenced patterns lately in recent history; in a large Miller A (or any storm with unphased mistimed vorts) any shortwave coming thru the northern stream like that can act as a kicker and flatten the precip shield on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: I certainly can...being in NEPA was brutal from 2010-16. Benchmark is basically for I95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 2 days of runs..with 3 days till storm. Writing it off is trolling at this point Billy or anyone else what is the margin for error at this point is it 150 miles either way at this stage, I know each model could be different Im talking about this ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Billy or anyone else what is the margin for error at this point is it 150 miles either way at this stage, I know each model could be different Im talking about this ECMWF We really should be looking at the factors that suppress the precip shield at this point, I don’t think there will be “drastic” changes to track.. BM or just east is a good bet, but we can certainly be undergoing western precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Benchmark is basically for I95 corridor North of avoca area 2013-14 and 2015-2016 were cold winters with plenty of snow and of course last winter was great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: North of avoca area 2013-14 and 2015-2016 were cold winters with plenty of snow and of course last winter was great! I don't know where you were in 15-16 but it was my personal worst winter ever. Only about 30% of average snow and little cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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