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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not even close.

It's very hard to make sense of all this for those of us who just come in here some parts of the year to see what is going on; contradictory statements only add to the confusion. I generally try to see what the pros and mets say, because other posters will always say the opposite of any statement someone else makes. But hey, I still love y'all.....I'm still a weenie at heart....hangin with Snow88 until the fat lady sings....

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Long/Lat 40/70
The "benchmark" or marker, if you will that the weather gods have chosen (& for good reason) for where storms usually effect us. Off the NE coast at the coordinates shown above. A storm that "tracks" To it, or to the left, means we will be impacted during event. To the right, it's OTS (out to sea) with little/no impact on US.
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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's very hard to make sense of all this for those of us who just come in here some parts of the year to see what is going on; contradictory statements only add to the confusion. I generally try to see what the pros and mets say, because other posters will always say the opposite of any statement someone else makes. But hey, I still love y'all.....I'm still a weenie at heart....hangin with Snow88 until the fat lady sings....

The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored.

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5 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Where does he say this? His Twitter has no mention of that statement 

Another forum

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored.

Euro isn't that far away anymore

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3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Large Miller As are wet and those like to run the the BM with the ridge that far W

Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms  .   It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . 

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The Canadian is the only model that currently shows a sizeable hit, the Ukmet has been second closest. The Euro is far away from a scenario that would get the low tucked in, and the GFS should be ignored.

The euro at h5 is very close. The models are having tremendous issues resolving all the Vorts/energies. We are close to a crippling storm.  

 

Edit : crippling is a bit strong wording wise, at this stage especially. I would say close to a major storm.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Being nw all I can say is the last few years the western precip field has been crap compared to say 10 years ago on bm storms  .   It’s happened more than a few times. I’m sure others can back me up on this . 

We’ve been seeing some pretty drastic northern stream influenced patterns lately in recent history; in a large Miller A (or any storm with unphased mistimed vorts) any shortwave coming thru the northern stream like that can act as a kicker and flatten the precip shield on the west side.

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Billy or anyone else what is the margin for error at this point is it 150 miles either way at this stage, I know each model could be different Im talking about this ECMWF

We really should be looking at the factors that suppress the precip shield at this point, I don’t think there will be “drastic” changes to track.. BM or just east is a good bet, but we can certainly be undergoing western precip 

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