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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No. And even if does, it shouldn't. Low is way OTS.

No absolutely not my man , that 2nd max is leafing out to the west of the SLP

Follow the track of LP at 60 with that feature then look at where it is at 72 now look at where the center goes by 96

That moisture will follow the Low just like the Canadian 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

No absolutely not my man , that 2nd max is leafing out to the west of the SLP

Follow the track of LP at 60 with that feature then look at where it is at 72 now look at where the center goes by 96

That moisture will follow the Low just like the Canadian 

 

 

The low is closer to Bermuda than here. Stop wishcasting calling for sub 960 inside the BM. Ride and die with the JMA

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2 minutes ago, mike1984 said:

In my time lurking on this board, I’ve always heard the term “benchmark”. Can someone explain what that means. I assume we want in the benchmark for most snows?

The 40N/70W coordinates, where winter storms that are significant here often track. Actually, a bit west of there is best for most of us. 

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

The low is closer to Bermuda than here. Stop wishcasting calling for sub 960 inside the BM. Ride and die with the JMA

He's not wishcasting

Every model has been shifting west this afternoon and the 2nd low closer to the coast is quite possible. We still don't know yet if there will be 2 lows or one of those lows are due to convective feed back.

JMA, Navgem, CMC,GEPS, RPM are close to great hits for our area/

Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

New navgem 

0672EF47-CB1A-4501-805D-98C0B5882536.png

Further west

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Just now, Snow88 said:

He's not wishcasting

Every model has been shifting west this afternoon and the 2nd low closer to the coast is quite possible. We still don't know yet if there will be 2 lows or one of those lows are due to convective feed back.

JMA, Navgem, CMC,GEPS, RPM are close to great hits for our area/

Further west

Not exactly the pinnacle of success in modeling right there Ant

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

For those talking consistency and this being DOA... we’re 3 days out an eternity in model time.. this was GFS 3 days ago... 

CA354672-E872-4730-BE5E-BA0AD28401C9.png

It's stronger now, but same result.... we can' hang our hats on the nogaps and JMA. All the optimism will be gone in 20 minutes when the Euro follows the UK to Bermuda. 

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's stronger now, but same result.... we can' hang our hats on the nogaps and JMA. All the optimism will be gone in 20 minutes when the Euro follows the UK to Bermuda. 

3 days out...lol 

 

and not even close on the analysis.. 500 evolution is night and day, it’s not just “stronger” 

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