UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs has better trough alignment and orientation so far.. I don’t expect anything drastic from the gfs until it decides to be right or cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs still OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs still OTS Definitely precip went west and it was more organized u guys gotta remember gfs is number 4 model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Precip shield is bit further west but that's the only change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs still OTS Can I not like this ? Amazing that in this day and age with all this technology that computer models still can't get better grips on these events, unless of course OTS is what will happen but ,,,,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That ain't west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC is a good hit for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Definitely went west and it was more organized u guys gotta remember gfs is number 4 model Which nailed Jan-15 - unfortunately, nobody here is omniscient, so we can't know which model is going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That ain't west Well in all fairness the pecip shield is slightly west... but I am not really interested in what the GFS has to say always seems to be the last to grab onto the idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Canada appears to have nukes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well in all fairness the pecip shield is slightly west... but I am not really interested in what the GFS has to say always seems to be the last to grab onto the idea! What's the idea that the GFS is missing? I'm not defending the solution, but in fairness the GFS has consistently shown the Great Lakes Kicker pushing the storm out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Precip shield is bit further west but that's the only change Which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Canada appears to have nukes And JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Which nailed Jan-15 - unfortunately, nobody here is omniscient, so we can't know which model is going to be correct. Not over here it didn't, it was too far east with that until the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can anyone explain more in depth the difference between the 12z CMC and 12z GFS and why the Canadian has a good hit for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I never thought the Canadian would make more sense over the gfs but it does. The phasing/consolidation is very sloppy on the gfs. I still need to se what the Ukmet and Euro do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 UKIE is further east than last night. It does have that extension around 72 in the MSLP so there is likely still snow over the area but I would be surprised if it was not notably less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes please Only at 10:1 =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This is probably best case scenario for western areas of the metro. I don’t know how much further west this could come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Not over here it didn't, it was too far east with that until the last second. Yeah pretty sure it was out to lunch on that one until about 2 days prior. Got the details right at the last minute, but in general the Goof blows at east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: This threat is over IMO in terms of a major KU. It could still be a significant or big hit for Eastern areas but once that phase completes, the Western SLP dies off, and I don’t see how that’s going to change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Needs some support from Ukie or Euro before I'll bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I’d even stress to Ignor QPF.. 947 from that track.. would crush... that precip would be way underdone imo, especially if we lose the double barrel feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 this map assumes its a 10:1 ratio - do the math if its 15:1 or 20:1 - that would equal MECS possibly HECS BUT PROCEED WITH CAUTION ITS THE CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Can anyone explain more in depth the difference between the 12z CMC and 12z GFS and why the Canadian has a good hit for our area? It might all start with a different initialization scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It's coming 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I’ll take that please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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