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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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59 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely.

We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent.

Strong words of caution are advised right now.

I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by  ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect?

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I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by  ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect?
What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause.
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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:
5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:
I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by  ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect?

What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause.

The GFS and GGEM show a strong system with a somewhat different evolution. No one should expect any particular outcome now, we still have a progressive fast pattern where the energy may become misplaced and we end up with no storm or a much weaker one. Still way too early for details. 

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11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:
I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by  ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect?

What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause.

I'm with you..just looking for a little more clarification from his comment since he's a met who interprets the models everyday..don't think that I was trying to justify one model run that depicts a wishful, top 5 snow storm.

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely.

We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent.

Strong words of caution are advised right now.

Strongly agree.  

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I'm with you..just looking for a little more clarification from his comment since he's a met who interprets the models everyday..don't think that I was trying to justify one model run that depicts a wishful, top 5 snow storm.

 

By Euro standards mainly, it still is the most skilled model however the GFS has gotten worse since the upgrade, so this isn’t really saying much. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

 

By Euro standards mainly, it still is the most skilled model however the GFS has gotten worse since the upgrade, so this isn’t really saying much. 

 

 

The Euro seems to have gotten worse beyond 72-84.  It probably hasn’t and it’s more just that the other models have gotten better.  So when it takes a beating at hour 90 it’s easier to remember since it rarely used to occur.  It does seem the Euro still has a slight progressive bias inside 72 since the upgrade 2 winters ago. I frequently adjust its depictions somewhat more north and west inside 3 days 

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26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro seems to have gotten worse beyond 72-84.  It probably hasn’t and it’s more just that the other models have gotten better.  So when it takes a beating at hour 90 it’s easier to remember since it rarely used to occur.  It does seem the Euro still has a slight progressive bias inside 72 since the upgrade 2 winters ago. I frequently adjust its depictions somewhat more north and west inside 3 days 

It just seems like all the models are bad right now, GFS hasn't been doing all that well either. It had a southern snowstorm yesterday, which is gone on it now.

 

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All DT had to say was that there's the possibility of a major east coast storm next week (which also means there's a possibility there won't be one) instead of taking the EPS mean literally at day 7.   But I guess that goes against the call he made recently so...

And there's a vendor thread for that stuff :ph34r:

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

All DT had to say was that there's the possibility of a major east coast storm next week (which also means there's a possibility there won't be one) instead of taking the EPS mean literally at day 7.   But I guess that goes against the call he made recently so...

And there's a vendor thread for that stuff :ph34r:

I posted it in here because this is a storm specific thread which his post pertains to, but feel free to move it to the Vendor Thread if you like.

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