USCG RS Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Lol @ this......candyAt this point... Just candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not liking the amount of eps members so far east. However I am hoping for a high impact event and hopefully 18z GFS comes south east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 59 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely. We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent. Strong words of caution are advised right now. I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect?What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect? What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause. The GFS and GGEM show a strong system with a somewhat different evolution. No one should expect any particular outcome now, we still have a progressive fast pattern where the energy may become misplaced and we end up with no storm or a much weaker one. Still way too early for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: I thought I saw a post recently where the latest skill scores showed euro, followed by ukmet, Canadian, then gfs.. not challenging your expertise at all and totally agree about words of caution but do you mean less than stellar by euro standards or was that skill score post incorrect? What he's saying is that the past few storms the Euro has been having issues resolving details to make forecasts for storms. In fact t last season it was rather atrocious. Likewise, this is a very complicated pattern and only having one model remotely on board is a cause for pause. I'm with you..just looking for a little more clarification from his comment since he's a met who interprets the models everyday..don't think that I was trying to justify one model run that depicts a wishful, top 5 snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: Everything else is a scraper and the euro has been....well... “less than stellar” to put it nicely. We also just lost what was supposed to be a big threat, this one can easily vanish if that transient block trends weaker or non existent. Strong words of caution are advised right now. Strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not liking the amount of eps members so far east. However I am hoping for a high impact event and hopefully 18z GFS comes south east a bit. That's about as big of a signal as you're going to get at day 7 on a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol @ this......candy At this point... Just candy. I'll give up 5 seasons worth of snow to see that happen, that control run is def run by a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18z GFS is weaker and further east. 500 never closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: I'm with you..just looking for a little more clarification from his comment since he's a met who interprets the models everyday..don't think that I was trying to justify one model run that depicts a wishful, top 5 snow storm. By Euro standards mainly, it still is the most skilled model however the GFS has gotten worse since the upgrade, so this isn’t really saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Storm signal is there. Let’s stick with that until we get to about Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The GEFS mean keeps moving to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 If anything remotely like that 947 mb low actually happened, Long Island would look a bit like the Lake Huron snowbelt after a big storm there, 30-40 inches of snow with 10-20 foot drifts. Could it happen? Probably not, except any nearly correct solution will still be a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: By Euro standards mainly, it still is the most skilled model however the GFS has gotten worse since the upgrade, so this isn’t really saying much. The Euro seems to have gotten worse beyond 72-84. It probably hasn’t and it’s more just that the other models have gotten better. So when it takes a beating at hour 90 it’s easier to remember since it rarely used to occur. It does seem the Euro still has a slight progressive bias inside 72 since the upgrade 2 winters ago. I frequently adjust its depictions somewhat more north and west inside 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro seems to have gotten worse beyond 72-84. It probably hasn’t and it’s more just that the other models have gotten better. So when it takes a beating at hour 90 it’s easier to remember since it rarely used to occur. It does seem the Euro still has a slight progressive bias inside 72 since the upgrade 2 winters ago. I frequently adjust its depictions somewhat more north and west inside 3 days It just seems like all the models are bad right now, GFS hasn't been doing all that well either. It had a southern snowstorm yesterday, which is gone on it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: It just seems like all the models are bad right now, GFS hasn't been doing all that well either. It had a southern snowstorm yesterday, which is gone on it now. Lately the Canadian has been riding the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, NutleyBlizzard said: Lately the Canadian has been riding the hot hand. The Canadian nailed the snow event in Georgia a few weeks ago from 3-4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hasn't the Ukie done well as of late ? I think it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hasn't the Ukie done well as of late ? I think it has Not sure, but I remember it was one of the last models to hang on to the Dec 29th-30th event being a huge event, especially for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I know the EURO has been struggling as of late, but I feel more confident in its depiction of a major event next week than what the GFS shows. GFS has been downright lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The grammar and spelling is really off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 All DT had to say was that there's the possibility of a major east coast storm next week (which also means there's a possibility there won't be one) instead of taking the EPS mean literally at day 7. But I guess that goes against the call he made recently so... And there's a vendor thread for that stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: All DT had to say was that there's the possibility of a major east coast storm next week (which also means there's a possibility there won't be one) instead of taking the EPS mean literally at day 7. But I guess that goes against the call he made recently so... And there's a vendor thread for that stuff I posted it in here because this is a storm specific thread which his post pertains to, but feel free to move it to the Vendor Thread if you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I posted it in here because this is a storm specific thread which his post pertains to, but feel free to move it to the Vendor Thread if you like. Nah. You're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 0z,GFS goes well OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 0z,GFS goes well OTS Is this a prediction or fact it’s only out to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said: Is this a prediction or fact it’s only out to 66 It’s a fact...I have it all the way done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 This threat Is looking more and more like this week. Ots and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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