NJwx85 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still swing out, that’s western precip shield is pathetic lol Look at H5, that pesky lead vort I spoke about days ago is causing that double barreled low. Once the phase completes and things consolidate, it pulls everything East with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Will only be convinced of a solution tomorrow at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still swing out, that’s western precip shield is pathetic lol Same issue the earlier phase kills the western edge of the precip field. We need a later phase like yesterdays GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This threat is over IMO in terms of a major KU. It could still be a significant or big hit for Eastern areas but once that phase completes, the Western SLP dies off, and I don’t see how that’s going to change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The one thing that could save this is if it could close off a large ULL over the Deep South like that one Euro run had. No other runs have shown this occurring though. That big closed low would back the flow enough that you could drag that initial shortwave Northwest instead of Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 FWIW, Nam 3k had healthier precip shield to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: FWIW, Nam 3k had healthier precip shield to the west. Won’t matter in the end... that vortmax is robbing us... how often do we see models nailing a storm this dynamic... this far out... unchanged really since we lost the big euro run...only reason I’ll hold out till tomorrow 12z/00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: FWIW, Nam 3k had healthier precip shield to the west. That frames look classic, snow all the way back to the NC mountains....and warm air/rain threatening the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Won’t matter in the end... that vortmax is robbing us... how often do we see models nailing a storm this dynamic... this far out... unchanged really since we lost the big euro run...only reason I’ll hold out till tomorrow 12z/00z I agree This is a tricky situation with alot of convection involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 guess I’ll go to my in laws down in myrtle for big snows... lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I agree This is a tricky situation with alot of convection involved. I still have a gut feeling that this will be a bit like last March, not in terms of final track, but in that significant convection and latent heat release continue to pump heights more than models are showing, thus effecting a westward correction each run up to zero hour. With the obscene baroclinic environment and 50+mb pressure falls, I'd be surprised if this doesn't nestle in a bit closer (assuming sampling comes in with a strong northern stream tonight and the phasing progresses to plan). I still think there's more room to correct west than east with this. As I believe Will said in the NE forum mentioned the other day, probably a good thing we don't have a -NAO or this would retro in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: I still have a gut feeling that this will be a bit like last March, not in terms of final track, but in that significant convection and latent heat release continue to pump heights more than models are showing, thus effecting a westward correction each run up to zero hour. With the obscene baroclinic environment and 50+mb pressure falls, I'd be surprised if this doesn't nestle in a bit closer (assuming sampling comes in with a strong northern stream tonight and the phasing progresses to plan). I still think there's more room to correct west than east with this. As I believe Will said in the NE forum mentioned the other day, probably a good thing we don't have a -NAO or this would retro in Jersey. People want a negative nao but this isn't a good time to have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: People want a negative nao but this isn't a good time to have one. Give me a little more ridging in the Atlantic to help buckle the flow a bit, but yeah, -NAO might be too much of a good thing in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: guess I’ll go to my in laws down in myrtle for big snows... lmao The way snow events go down in the south, if you're in the bullseye at this range you're going to end up raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Won’t matter in the end... that vortmax is robbing us... how often do we see models nailing a storm this dynamic... this far out... unchanged really since we lost the big euro run...only reason I’ll hold out till tomorrow 12z/00z Agreed too much has to go our way like yesterdays GEM. Phase too early moisture gets robbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Rgem is west Meteograms show 8-10 for NYC Looks great for the inland areas and the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6z RGEM (extended range: 60 hours - 84 hours): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: guess I’ll go to my in laws down in myrtle for big snows... lmao Myrtle beacuh is most likely going to get sleet and freezing rain I doubt they get real snow out of this. This system is coming around watch the precip extend westward in the future rund. I honestly think cmc is the best model out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The RGEM is much faster through 45 developing precip over GA. The NAM was largely delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: 6z RGEM (extended range: 60 hours - 84 hours): RGEM nailed March 2017. Was first to really show that west track which turned 2 feet of SNOW in NYC to 3 inches and then a crap load of Sleet. Euro showed 2 feet of snow until 24 hours out on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 6z RGEM (extended range: 60 hours - 84 hours): One thing I need for clarification (and we need a quick Cliffs Notes' model guide), is this model trustworthy this far out? I forget which one is and which one is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Let's see what the GooFuS says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem is west Meteograms show 8-10 for NYC Looks great for the inland areas and the coast 8-10 and the precip is done or there's still precip left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, North and West said: One thing I need for clarification (and we need a quick Cliffs Notes' model guide), is this model trustworthy this far out? I forget which one is and which one is not. I would be cautious about specific amounts. The bigger idea that there remain snowfall possibilities is the main takeaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: 8-10 and the precip is done or there's still precip left? Looks done but west of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Let's see what the GooFuS says... I would expect no major changes really. Its been so far off every other model its likely going to have a sudden cave but I think its too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: I would be cautious about specific amounts. The bigger idea that there remain snowfall possibilities is the main takeaway. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: Let's see what the GooFuS says... Let's not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I’d kill... literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’d kill... literally Central/Eastern Long Island would get smoked on that! Not to mention inland areas do really well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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