MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Heavy precip is down in NJ on the Euro Still very close Congrats Philly and SNJ on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Even New England outside the immediate coast doesn't do well. Ocean City, MD does much better than the outer Cape even. Crazy run. I assume the western double barrel low hangs on to cash the Mid Atlantic coast in and then it crashes to the far out at sea low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ocean City, MD does much better than the outer Cape even. Crazy run. I assume the western double barrel low hangs on to cash the Mid Atlantic coast in and then it crashes to the far out at sea low? The arctic wave acts as a kicker so everything gets slammed east.That being said, someone showed the Australian model. Here it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Any one got a kuchera euro snow fall map for ny state for entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This storm's depiction off the southeast coast reminds me of one of those North Atlantic or Aleutian Islands systems - broad, mature, self-contained blobs of rotating vortices cut off from the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3z SREF is west of 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS has shifted a bit east per the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Not sure it means much but 06z NAM is coming in a hair more amplified @ h5 thus far through hr 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam looks like a cleaner phase and a 978 just inside the benchmark. Not the results you would expect though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We should get better sampling today and tonight, not convinced this whiffs. I'm thinking we get a few inches. Nam does look a lot better but the LR Nam is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I can’t imgaine we have a sun 980 inside the benchmark, and no precip into the area like nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 JMA with a nice little trend lol... I really hope models start to sharpen this trough, nam looks so good at 500 but we still don’t get great trough orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Two more main model cycles and this probably won't change much thereafter. I would put little stock in trends overnight since too many of these pieces are not yet sampled. Any sort of drastic shifts at 12Z and 00Z today hold much more weight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Rgem is still a nice hit, even inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF is more west Mean is 7 inches for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just to give a heads up.. cause I wasn’t even sure, asked a popular met on Twitter.. RGEM does NOT go out past 48... once the 49th hour hits... it reverts and finishes the run as the GGEM... if u watch carefully when looking at 18z for example.. the actual panel label will revert 12z at hr 49 cause it’s using the GGEMto finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF is more west Mean is 7 inches for LGA Can u post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Jeez that SREF is all butchered up on the NCEP site. It keeps jumping back and forth between yesterday's 09Z run because panels are missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can u post I'm having trouble posting pics on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The GEM 6z did the same thing. The delmarva and southern NJ do well then the precip gets shunted east and we get approx. 1 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The mean low position develops closer in near the SE Coast and tracks just a few miles east of the BM. The key to this whole forecast is getting the initial storm formation closer to the 540 thickness line along the SE Coast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area# Some members are tucked in pretty close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam should be west and stronger, PNA ridge much better, and stronger waves I. General, also holding back energy nicely edit: wavelength also shortening, wouldn’t be surprised to see faster phase here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam should be west and stronger, PNA ridge much better, and stronger waves I. General, also holding back energy nicely edit: wavelength also shortening, wouldn’t be surprised to see faster phase here Not good that the phase would be faster. Per NWS discussion we want a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The exact location of where this forms is the whole game. It is going to take off like a rocket to the NNE once it develops and rapidly intensify. A more tucked in solution near the 540 line along the SE Coast and it's game on.What needs to happen for that to occur?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Not good that the phase would be faster. Per NWS discussion we want a later phase. An earlier phase would better but not that far south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: An earlier phase would better but not that far south though. Correct. The early phase us what caused the precipitation jump to the east on the EURO and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nam looking much better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Precip breaking out well into GA and Florida this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks to have all waves interacting well before TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Still swing out, that’s western precip shield is pathetic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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