Mitchel Volk Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Up tp 60hrs that it for the NAM after that no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here comes a wacked out off its rocker NAM solution of old lol....NAMs way of conveying "Happy New Year"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 No way to know yet what’s going on til we see what the CMC UKMET and Euro do. Especially interested now to see if they have that third disturbance coming in that rapidly. Even if that disturbance is real however it can still act as a phasing piece and not a kicker. This is one of those rare setups that can result in a really screwy forecast until we are inside 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just for everyone's info - its being reported by a few reputable METS on their sites that various models are currently suffering 4 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here comes a wacked out off its rocker NAM solution of old lol.... NAMs way of conveying "Happy New Year"! a Happy New Year and a glass of convective feedback error by the NAM and GFS so far as reported by a few high profile METS - ignore these crazy solutions right now...…….concentrate on the 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Just for everyone's info - its being reported by a few reputable METS on their sites that various models are currently suffering a Happy New Year and a glass of convective feedback error by the NAM and GFS so far as reported by a few high profile METS - ignore these crazy solutions right now...…….concentrate on the 500mb "Suffering convective feedback" is an over-used excuse for simply dismissing NWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The RGEM is quite a bit stronger with the disturbance at H5 over Oklahoma at 48 hours than the NAM was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The RGEM is quite a bit stronger with the disturbance at H5 over Oklahoma at 48 hours than the NAM was What does Oklahoma mean for us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gfs is basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 CMC is further west with the low closer to the coast. Several inches for the city with more in LI and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I could live with GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 At this point, I'm not expecting major changes until all of the peices of the puzzle are over the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is further west with the low closer to the coast. Several inches for the city with more in LI and SNE CMC is a good deal west while the GFS is basically unchanged from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 0z CMC 6+ for NYC 12+ for eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... Yeah, but it' been great lately...only sliver of hope. However, we really need to wait until sampling is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If that 3rd vort moving in from the great lakes acts as a kicker, this is a lost cause. So far, the CMC is the only model giving this area anything tonight.... And the Euro at 12z CMC has been better than the gfs lately. Look at the verification stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, sferic said: What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? its also known as the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: What am I doing wrong, where is the GEM located on Tropicaltidbits? CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: And the Euro at 12z CMC has been better than the gfs lately. Look at the verification stats Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Ukmet? It MIGHT be a big hit here..MIGHT. It’s very hard to tell but it looks like it literally moves due north close to the benchmark but without precip maps I can’t tell yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its also known as the CMC Thank you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It MIGHT be a big hit here..MIGHT. It’s very hard to tell but it looks like it literally moves due north close to the benchmark but without precip maps I can’t tell yet I’ll have precip maps on Ryan’s site, I’ll post when they’re done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’ll have precip maps on Ryan’s site, I’ll post when they’re done It looks like it may not have a double low so it’s possible it ain’t as wet this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 With the cold in place those GGEM totals would yield much higher..looks like a foot or more in city, close to 2 feet on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps That’s wayyyy down there at 1007mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Def gonna need to wait for the precip maps Its like waiting for the official to send word down on a close play! Catch or no catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.