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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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Really bad model analysis in this thread, the Atlantic is awful and the kicker over the great lakes moves this ENE and out to sea.  I don't see how this produces unless the kicker changes, phases or slows down, a two stream phase or closed southern low does nothing for us

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Really bad model analysis in this thread, the Atlantic is awful and the kicker over the great lakes moves this ENE and out to sea.  I don't see how this produces unless the kicker changes, phases or slows down, a two stream phase or closed southern low does nothing for us

Nam phased 

That's all that matters

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I have not seen mention of the fact of just how fast this thing is moving.  From 25N to 38N in 24 hours, or 40mph.  Does not over stay its welcome anywhere.

 Maybe a slowing of the forward motion might accompany any real change in the trajectory.

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Just now, Rjay said:

This is pretty spot on imo.  

A closed southern stream low will just get punted ENE by the great lakes kicker, we need that to slow and phase in or at least interact to bring impacts to the area.  Everyone is focused on the two stream phase but that is great for coastal South Carolina.

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13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Really bad model analysis in this thread, the Atlantic is awful and the kicker over the great lakes moves this ENE and out to sea.  I don't see how this produces unless the kicker changes, phases or slows down, a two stream phase or closed southern low does nothing for us

You’re right. Good point

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

A closed southern stream low will just get punted ENE by the great lakes kicker, we need that to slow and phase in or at least interact to bring impacts to the area.  Everyone is focused on the two stream phase but that is great for coastal South Carolina.

Guess I'll head back down to my parents house in myrtle beach

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