North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I have a sneaking feeling it's because of the Fujiwara like affect. You have two very intense systems essentially rotating around each other until absorbs the other. That's my thoughts anyway, considering the physics and vector math behind it Without going to Google, what’s the tl;dr of the Fujiwara Effect?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That’s some jump IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling... I agree it needs improvement, but I disagree huge, we’re 3-6 hours late on the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Without going to Google, what’s the tl;dr of the Fujiwara Effect?.It's when two systems orbit each other until they combine into one. It gets more complicated, of course, but that's the short quick version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I agree it needs improvement, but I disagree huge, we’re 3-6 hours late on the phase.Being honest, imo, it'd more 1-2 hours. Just look at hr72 on the ukie. Sooo close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling... I don’t expect the GFS will make any move at all for awhile. It’s just a question what the other three main globals do. The GFS i fully expect will hold out on this (assuming this continues further west) until Monday night or Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I looked, it's roughly half of the members today with the dual low. Didn't most of the members have that yesterday? About half also if I recall correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The NavGEM continues to be just outside of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I agree it needs improvement, but I disagree huge, we’re 3-6 hours late on the phase. A little better. I believe the other day we were about 10 hours late for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 A little better. I believe the other day we were about 10 hours late for the phase.Three to six hours, at the rate these Vorts move, is give or take.. 75 miles. Very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: A little better. I believe the other day we were about 10 hours late for the phase. Three to six hours, at the rate these Vorts move, is give or take.. 75 miles. Very close. Agree. Also a few more runs with better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That member has just the single low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: You can see how the more westerly EPS members near the 540 line end up with very deep lows near or inside the BM. If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 42 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling... I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously. Would love a track straight up through Block Island into Providence and Worcester putting most here into the epic snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Would love a track straight up through Block Island into Providence and Worcester putting most here into the epic snow There was an EPS member that crosses the Cape at 939. Think that would work lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z gefs ticked east and we lost a few members close to the Delmarva but there seems to be a good cluster just east and south of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: 18z gefs ticked east and we lost a few members close to the Delmarva but there seems to be a good cluster just east and south of the benchmark. With poor sampling data so far, I am going to view solution variation right now as model noise without clear trends. Only when all the models start pointing in one direction 2-3 days out should we feel confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Can someone explain what it means when there’s almost like a secondary max showing up on the normalized spread, to the west of the ensemble low? Does it mean there is a weighted cluster of LPs in that area? If so, why doesn’t it influence the gefs low to be plotted closer to that cluster? Or is the location of the low already influenced by that cluster? Orrrrr is that a tell tale sign the location of the low may be adjusted westward in the next run? Thanks in advance. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The ensembles may have been east but it seems there were more west leaners this time than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Would love a track straight up through Block Island into Providence and Worcester putting most here into the epic snow Wasn’t that December 30, 2000? Morris County was hammered.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The ensembles may have been east but it seems there were more west leaners this time than 12Z Yep. There’s a huge batch on the western edge and they’re more tightly clustered. It’s an interesting look and evolution from the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously.As per Don, the eastern most low usually sucks in the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track Surface winds are harder to forecast than precipitation. Even modeled well, its hard to translate the upper level velocity to the surface. If the storm takes the easterly track, you would most likely not notice the wind much greater than it has been the past two days, and temperatures are expected to be near 30 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will most likely be more noticeable once the center has passed to our north, ushering in much colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can someone explain what it means when there’s almost like a secondary max showing up on the normalized spread, to the west of the ensemble low? Does it mean there is a weighted cluster of LPs in that area? If so, why doesn’t it influence the gefs low to be plotted closer to that cluster? Or is the location of the low already influenced by that cluster? Orrrrr is that a tell tale sign the location of the low may be adjusted westward in the next run? Thanks in advance. .It's an average. You have alot close to the west and more close to the east, the lp placement is going to skew to the east. What ensembles are showing is that this is far from resolved. It's all about the phasing. The ones closer to the coast show a strong earlier phase, with the ones to the east showing a late phase. The fact t there are more west members is a red flag that this May correct West next run, but more importantly, it's a tell tale sign that the models still cannot resolve all the Vort energies and the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track Actually the storm with the strongest winds on LI with heavy snow occurred on February 11th, 1983. Where I was in NW Suffolk I had many hours with wind gusts between 50 - 75 MPH. I had roof mounted wind instrumentation to measure it. We had heavy snow mixed with some graupel. December 5th 1981 was also impressive even though that one stayed well to the east. I measured wind gusts with that one to between 40 - 55 MPH for many hours during the daytime hours of that event. If this one is as intense as modeled it will have that potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Actually the storm with the strongest winds on LI with heavy snow occurred on February 11th, 1983. Where I was in NW Suffolk I had many hours with wind gusts between 50 - 75 MPH. I had roof mounted wind instrumentation to measure it. We had heavy snow mixed with some graupel. December 5th 1981 was also impressive even though that one stayed well to the east. I measured wind gusts with that one to between 40 - 55 MPH for many hours during the daytime hours of that event. If this one is as intense as modeled it will have that potential as well. I didn’t realize feb 83 had winds that strong, hard to remember a storm when your one. What I’m getting at is the depth of low pressure. Boxing Day was the deepest snow event we have had recently and I had 60mph gusts in Long Beach. This is modeled to be much deeper. With the strongest gradient and precip combo (deform band) likely to be over the east end. Hence the hurricane force gusts there. This is purely speculative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 A lot of western members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Name amped really holding back energy with a strong northern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 45 hr nams a beaut...southern stream nearly 75 West , northern vort diving and amped further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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