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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread


bluewave

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I have a sneaking feeling it's because of the Fujiwara like affect. You have two very intense systems essentially rotating around each other until absorbs the other. That's my thoughts anyway, considering the physics and vector math behind it

Without going to Google, what’s the tl;dr of the Fujiwara Effect?


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18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

That’s some jump

101E6795-2291-4F01-95D2-3E2A7AF8F709.gif

IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling...

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Just now, snowman19 said:

IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling...

I agree it needs improvement, but I disagree huge, we’re 3-6 hours late on the phase.

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling...

I don’t expect the GFS will make any move at all for awhile.  It’s just a question what the other three main globals do.  The GFS i fully expect will hold out on this (assuming this continues further west) until Monday night or Tuesday morning 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You can see how the more westerly EPS members near the 540 line end up with very deep lows near or inside the BM.

 

eps_qpf_slp_13_east2_15.thumb.png.f441b26c862a51c2fcceb33f280cf97b.png

eps_qpf_slp_13_east2_18.thumb.png.dac1cd0f1c347d435b925bde4a929a99.png

 

 

 

 

If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track 

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42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO just speaking for our specific area, it is going to take huge and I mean huge improvements to make this a snowstorm west of I-95, even I-95 needs real big improvements for a big snowstorm. Every model run keeps nailing eastern New England and some hit eastern LI. Tonight at 0z should be telling...

I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously.

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously.

Would love a track straight up through Block Island into Providence and Worcester putting most here into the epic snow 

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4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

5a4977278db06_gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh96_trend(2).thumb.gif.80b45b8b5e8144e64ad7cb179130e4d2.gif

 

18z gefs ticked east and we lost a few members close to the Delmarva but there seems to be a good cluster just east and south of the benchmark.

With poor sampling data so far, I am going to view solution variation right now as model noise without clear trends.  Only when all the models start pointing in one direction 2-3 days out should we feel confident. 

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IMG_3592.JPG

Can someone explain what it means when there’s almost like a secondary max showing up on the normalized spread, to the west of the ensemble low? Does it mean there is a weighted cluster of LPs in that area? If so, why doesn’t it influence the gefs low to be plotted closer to that cluster? Or is the location of the low already influenced by that cluster? Orrrrr is that a tell tale sign the location of the low may be adjusted westward in the next run? Thanks in advance.


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I wouldn't put weight on the modeling until tomorrow 0z. S/w's are still in a data starved region, which probably means the model interpolation is fuzzy at best. There is likely to be a fair amount of correction one way or another in the next two days. H5 looks great and probably won't change much, but strength and vectors of the s/w's is liable to change significantly. I believe one of the NWS offices mentioned as much in discussion. I'm actually kind of happy there isn't a block in place, or I'd fear this thing backing into the HV. 0z tomorrow is when I'd start taking the outputs seriously.
As per Don, the eastern most low usually sucks in the one behind it.
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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track 

Surface winds are harder to forecast than precipitation.  Even modeled well, its hard to translate the upper level velocity to the surface.  If the storm takes the easterly track, you would most likely not notice the wind much greater than it has been the past two days, and temperatures are expected to be near 30 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.  Winds will most likely be more noticeable once the center has passed to our north, ushering in much colder air.

 

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IMG_3592.thumb.JPG.5bd647a224931c2d56f1174e0552b443.JPG

Can someone explain what it means when there’s almost like a secondary max showing up on the normalized spread, to the west of the ensemble low? Does it mean there is a weighted cluster of LPs in that area? If so, why doesn’t it influence the gefs low to be plotted closer to that cluster? Or is the location of the low already influenced by that cluster? Orrrrr is that a tell tale sign the location of the low may be adjusted westward in the next run? Thanks in advance.


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It's an average. You have alot close to the west and more close to the east, the lp placement is going to skew to the east. What ensembles are showing is that this is far from resolved. It's all about the phasing. The ones closer to the coast show a strong earlier phase, with the ones to the east showing a late phase. The fact t there are more west members is a red flag that this May correct West next run, but more importantly, it's a tell tale sign that the models still cannot resolve all the Vort energies and the phase.
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If that verified there would be hurricane fource gusts out on the east end. I don’t think there has been a storm with those type winds in combination with heavy snow since feb 78. Definitly epic driffiting!! Winds in combination with cold will be a big take away from this storm regerdless track 

Actually the storm with the strongest winds on LI with heavy snow occurred on February 11th, 1983.  Where I was in NW Suffolk I had many hours with wind gusts between 50 - 75 MPH.  I had roof mounted wind instrumentation to measure it.  We had heavy snow mixed with some graupel.  December 5th 1981 was also impressive even though that one stayed well to the east.  I measured wind gusts with that one to between 40 - 55 MPH for many hours during the daytime hours of that event.  If this one is as intense as modeled it will have that potential as well.

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7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Actually the storm with the strongest winds on LI with heavy snow occurred on February 11th, 1983.  Where I was in NW Suffolk I had many hours with wind gusts between 50 - 75 MPH.  I had roof mounted wind instrumentation to measure it.  We had heavy snow mixed with some graupel.  December 5th 1981 was also impressive even though that one stayed well to the east.  I measured wind gusts with that one to between 40 - 55 MPH for many hours during the daytime hours of that event.  If this one is as intense as modeled it will have that potential as well.

I didn’t realize feb 83 had winds that strong, hard to remember a storm when your one. What I’m getting at is the depth of low pressure. Boxing Day was the deepest snow event we have had recently and I had 60mph gusts in Long Beach. This is modeled to be much deeper. With the strongest gradient and precip combo (deform band) likely to be over the east end. Hence the hurricane force gusts there. This is purely speculative.  

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