Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAM more phased and further NW by about 100 miles. I think it would actually close off at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Has that double barrel low but a lot more emphasis is placed on the western low. If models focus on that low, then we would all probably get a good hit. Western low near 540 line would make more sense. I'm not even sure we will see a double low as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The far offshore low may be too enhanced due to convection but it's probably real to an extent. The better 500mb trends will hopefully bring this toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Has that double barrel low but a lot more emphasis is placed on the western low. If models focus on that low, then we would all probably get a good hit. Western low near 540 line would make more sense. I'm not even sure we will see a double low as we get closer.Careful. That has a too close for comfort look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Has that double barrel low but a lot more emphasis is placed on the western low. If models focus on that low, then we would all probably get a good hit. Western low near 540 line would make more sense. I'm not even sure we will see a double low as we get closer. Careful. That has a too close for comfort look. I’m ok with that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Has that double barrel low but a lot more emphasis is placed on the western low. If models focus on that low, then we would all probably get a good hit. Western low near 540 line would make more sense. I'm not even sure we will see a double low as we get closer. Careful. That has a too close for comfort look. The convection spawning the low fires up way offshore, forcing the track way out there. Maybe it's overdone and that would help bring this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The convection spawning the low fires up way offshore, forcing the track way out there. Maybe it's overdone and that would help bring this in. Convection does not spawn up a SLP. The eastern most SLP develops from a weak STJ vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Has that double barrel low but a lot more emphasis is placed on the western low. If models focus on that low, then we would all probably get a good hit. Western low near 540 line would make more sense. I'm not even sure we will see a double low as we get closer. I've seen a few folks compare this to the infamous late-March '14 near-miss, and that system had a prominent double low structure in its formative stages. Many people will try to tell you that modeled double-barreled lows never verify, but clearly that's not the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I feel like we saw a storm, 2014 maybe?, where we had the same thing with a double barrel low in a fast flow. Many didn't think it would happen in that instance either (myself included), but it did. ETA - @Juliancolton has it covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I've seen a few folks compare this to the infamous late-March '14 near-miss, and that system had a prominent double low structures in its formative stages. Many people will try to tell you that modeled double-barreled lows never verify, but clearly that's not the case... If I remember right that was only double barreled very early on and consolidated quickly into one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Where do we stand at the moment?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If I remember right that was only double barreled very early on and consolidated quickly into one Yeah, it didn't take long for the dual commaheads to coalesce, but it still had implications on the rest of the evolution and track of the storm. That was a fascinating storm to watch from afar so hopefully this week produces something similar, if we have to accept an offshore solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 obviously more complicated than this, but looking at the big picture, the baroclinicity right along the coast associated with anomalous cold inland and anomalous warmth offshore tells me this will continue correcting closer to the coast. could even be to the point that a snow-to-rain-to-snow or otherwise mixy solution is not off the table in the city (and especially LI up to BOS). those warm waters help give some credence to the absurdly low pressures we’re seeing forecast. also, #lanina + #seasonaltrends. can’t say that enough this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, it didn't take long for the dual commaheads to coalesce, but it still had implications on the rest of the evolution and track of the storm. That was a fascinating storm to watch from afar so hopefully this week produces something similar, if we have to accept an offshore solution. U have a link to the analog dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: obviously more complicated than this, but looking at the big picture, the baroclinicity right along the coast associated with anomalous cold inland and anomalous warmth offshore tells me this will continue correcting closer to the coast. could even be to the point that a snow-to-rain-to-snow or otherwise mixy solution is not off the table in the city (and especially LI up to BOS). those warm waters help give some credence to the absurdly low pressures we’re seeing forecast. also, #lanina + #seasonaltrends. can’t say that enough this year. Similar maybe to March 2017 where it kept correcting too far west and we lost the apocalyptic snows initially forecast for NYC shunting them North and West. Hope not ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: obviously more complicated than this, but looking at the big picture, the baroclinicity right along the coast associated with anomalous cold inland and anomalous warmth offshore tells me this will continue correcting closer to the coast. could even be to the point that a snow-to-rain-to-snow or otherwise mixy solution is not off the table in the city (and especially LI up to BOS). those warm waters help give some credence to the absurdly low pressures we’re seeing forecast. also, #lanina + #seasonaltrends. can’t say that enough this year. Great post, I agree with that hopefully it doesn' take a wide right after hitting the Cape hatteras latitude otherwise this can really tuck in and give us even some rain especially towards eastern long island. Notice the two warm blobs. One splits due east north east from north east of Cape hatteras and than you have a cold blob in the middle and than also a warm blob hugging the coast. Could explain the two lows forming on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Let's see something have this storm get to inside the benchmark first before we start talking rain. Yesterday, we wanted to rent a boat after the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Gfs looks better again, norther wave stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Won’t be crazy different imo, but better wave interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Let's see something have this storm get to inside the benchmark first before we start talking rain. Yesterday, we wanted to rent a boat after the model runs. there are plenty of ensemble members and even yesterday’s 12Z UKMET that were inside. meteorology >>> modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS phases much later than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: there are plenty of ensemble members and even yesterday’s 12Z UKMET that were inside. meteorology >>> modelology. I'll default to you, but this didn't scream inside the benchmark to me. Could certainly end up that way, not arguing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'll default to you, but this didn't scream inside the benchmark to me. Could certainly end up that way, not arguing that. I haven't looked today but I bet a lot of members have dual lows and those L's are only showing you the stronger eastern low. That was the case yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Why is the gfs such a piece of ****. According to verification scores I believe it's pacing behind even the Canadian. That doesn't mean it can't be right this time, but I def think it's overdoing the Eastward track by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: According to verification scores I believe it's pacing behind even the Canadian. That doesn't mean it can't be right this time, but I def think it's overdoing the Eastward track by quite a bit. Fairly sure I've heard the GFS has a tendency to suppress storms East. It did it for the Christmas day storm too, so that could be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 From what I see jma came like 300 miles west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: I haven't looked today but I bet a lot of members have dual lows and those L's are only showing you the stronger eastern low. That was the case yesterday. I looked, it's roughly half of the members today with the dual low. Didn't most of the members have that yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That’s some jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 If I remember right that was only double barreled very early on and consolidated quickly into oneI have a sneaking feeling it's because of the Fujiwara like affect. You have two very intense systems essentially rotating around each other until absorbs the other. That's my thoughts anyway, considering the physics and vector math behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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